
Originally posted by
Cardinal
The empirical analysis of large general merchandise store impacts is remarkably consistent. When one of these stores locates in a community, it will increase the city's overall sales, it will decrease sales in nearby communities, it will hurt some other merchants competing directly with ti, and it will benefit some merchants offering complementary goods or services. The analyses have some holes, but in a market with little or no growth, an average of perhaps 40% of the sales at a Wal-Mart will be taken from existing merchants in the city. (I would caution that there are so may variables from city to city that this should not be used as a blanket statistic). As an economic developer, I want to especially point to the second point. The community that does not get this store will suffer far worse than the community that does get the store.
One thing is rarely found in the way any community deals with the large discounters, or really, any of the national chains. That one thing is a thorough and unbiased analysis of the true impacts. As an example, the city next to mine just approved an offer to Wal-Mart of $2.3 million to build a new supercenter. They have had a regular Wal-Mart since 1987, but were afraid it would close since another supercenter opened not far away. In reality, Wal-Mart would wnat and would pay the price to locate where the incentives were offered, but the city did not bother to think it through. Instead, they figured that the new store would have an additional $19 million in sales and they offered the sales taxes that would be collected on that as an incentive. Those are new sales, so the city isn't giving up anything, right? Of course not. New superstores (it doesn't matter who) will take about 90% of their grocery business from other grocers in the market. Those are not new sales, and the city will end up losing revenue due to the payments it will now have to make.
Now let's get to the other point. Imagine that your city, in fit of moral ortrage and big box fervor, says no to one of them. They are not going to saimply say, "Well Town A doesn't want us in their market so we will just leave them alone." They are going to look at Town B and figure out that a store on the highway at such and such a spot will capture both the market for Town B and for Town A. They will build, and residents from Town A will shop at the store. When they do, they will stop at the bank there, have some lunch, and shop in the grocery store in the center across the street. That is all money they may have once spent in Town A, but people look for convenience and it is convenient to do all of their shopping in a single trip. Town B may lose its hardware store, but the grocery store and restaurant will make more sales. Town A may lose its hardware store, grocery store and restaurant.
I work in Town A. We said no. We let five of our seven large general merchandise stores leave to set up in surrounding cities, with all of the others. Sixty percent of the business at the Costco, in a Town B five miles from out city limits, comes from Town A. Fifteen years ago our stores captured 2/3 of the county's sales. We now capture just 1/3. Our sales have declined by about $400 million over the last four years. Are we better off for protecting our locals in this way? I don't think the numbers would suggest that is so.