Scenario - Iran nukes Israel

[el Guapo]

Wipe Israel from map, says Iran’s president
By Gareth Smyth in Tehran
Published: October 26 2005 21:26 | Last updated: October 27 2005 00:00

Mahmoud Ahmadi-Nejad, Iran’s fundamentalist president, on Wednesday declared that Israel should be “wiped off the map” and warned Arab countries against developing economic ties with Israel in response to its withdrawal from Gaza.

His remarks, delivered at a conference in Tehran entitled “A World without Zionism”, led to diplomatic protests by the UK, France and Spain, while Shimon Peres, Israel’s deputy prime minister, said Iran should be expelled from the United Nations.

In Washington, spokesmen for the Bush administration said the statement underscored US concern over Iran’s nuclear weapons programme.

Mr Ahmadi-Nejad’s comments came as Islamic Jihad, a militant Palestinian group allied to Iran, killed at least five Israelis with a bombing in the Israeli town of Hedera. Islamic Jihad claimed responsibility, saying it was avenging Israel’s killing of a West Bank commander on Monday.

US analysts noted that the president’s remarks were not a departure from hardline Iranian rhetoric and did not represent new policy.

But they said the rhetoric was aggressive and badly timed, and would serve to confirm western suspicions of Iran’s more confrontational approach that were raised by the new president’s speeches at the United Nations last month.

However, European diplomats suggested the comments would not derail efforts by France, Germany and the UK to get Iran to return to the negotiating table and halt work at its Isfahan uranium conversion facility. One diplomat said the EU3 had made a point of keeping the nuclear issue separate from Iranian support for militant Palestinian groups during two years of talks...

Read the rest of this story here.

The el Gupao Scenario: The president of an "almost" nuclear nation re-expresses what can only be called hate speach. As the vast majority of you, my fellow Cyburbians, think our current leader is an idiot who has led us into an ill conceived war, I ask you to formulate the US foreign policy for the day after we see news coverage of an Islamic nuke going off. What do you do? Please pretend your guys are in office. Heck, pretend your president Bartlet or Hillary is in charge. What are you going to do? Details, not more Bush is an idiot retoric. Try to stay on target. No one thought 9-11 was going to go down. Most of you doubt this will happen either. I for one belive it may be a mild version of N-day. I think they will strike with more than one.

[Masswich]

Its an interesting question and I appreciate, as a left-leaning Bush hater, having to deal with a real response to the problem. I have thought a lot about a similar question - what if President Gore was in the Oval Office on 9/11/01? My main conclusion has been that he would launch as strong or stronger a military action against Afganistan but certainly kept us out of the distraction of Iraq.

In terms of this question, I think Israel has enough nukes to wreak holy havoc in the mideast- I'd think it would make sense for the U.S. to stay the hell out of it because it won't be pretty.

[abrowne]

Not being American I don't really have a moral favourite between either. Do we jump on any crisis that happens? Wars are fought all day every day of every year. Granted, this one is with nukes - and not to try and shove this aside like some liberal eunuch, rather its that I've just been to the bar so I'm not structuring my arguments ideally. United Nations law would actually obligate a major intervention (ie forced disarmament of Iran), as far as I understand it, so the point is moot.

But DIRECTLY, though, the question puzzles me because I fail to see what Iran and Israel have to do with the USA. It is not as if a genocide is taking place, or something that requires intervention as a result of inherent corruption in the region, but rather a conflict between two nations - the sort of thing that happened 32 times in 2004 (http://www.ploughshares.ca/libraries...lePageRev.htm). Is Israel an actual ally of the USA? I don't know this offhand, but in the event it is, this would obligate a response.

[Wulf9]

Good question. Here are a couple of scenarios

President Condi reads the CIA warning that the bomb is in transit and does nothing. When the attack happens, she goes shopping for shoes. By the time she gets her expensive pumps back to the White House, both Israel and Iran are radioactive wastelands.

President Gore doesn't have to face the decision because he didn't ignore the CIA memo before 9/11 and 9/11 didn't happen. The U.S. was not distracted by war and led the world in supporting the nuclear nonproliferation. Iran did not have bomb materials.

[el Guapo]

Good question. Here are a couple of scenarios

President Condi reads the CIA warning that the bomb is in transit and does nothing. When the attack happens, she goes shopping for shoes. By the time she gets her expensive pumps back to the White House, both Israel and Iran are radioactive wastelands.

President Gore doesn't have to face the decision because he didn't ignore the CIA memo before 9/11 and 9/11 didn't happen. The U.S. was not distracted by war and led the world in supporting the nuclear nonproliferation. Iran did not have bomb materials.

This is the kind of dumb argument I reference in other threads tonight. Seriously? Is this the best you can do?

[dobopoq]

This is why the nation state should be abolished. We all share the same planet. What if I'm born as an Iranian who happens to disagree with the theocratic direction of the country?

My loyalty is to myself and the planet.

But to address your what if:

Obviously, timing is crucial. I don't think it would be responsible for us as a third party to immediately retaliate/intervene on Israel's behalf. What if a comet like the one that caused Berringer Crator in Arizona 50,000 years ago were to hit Tel-Aviv? Or what if another Tunguska Event were to happen? Hopefully, our sattelites could detect whether the source of the explosion originated from space or the Earth. I pray that our trigger happy national militaries could restrain themselves long enough to discern what the cause was. If it was indisputably caused by humans and not a bolide, the next step would be to figure out who did it. Once Israel found out it was the Iranians, yes they would probably return volley. As an American citizen, my hope would be that the U.S. and other nations would come to some consensus as to which party is the aggressor, and to commit to a plan of action for how to deal with them. The first bomb would tell us who did it and why, but I believe a 2nd bomb would need to be detonated against Israel within say one year for it be morally justifiably for us to unleash the floodgates on the accused agressor.

[donk]

Did Israel not bomb Iranian nuclear plants in the early 80's? I am pretty sure they did and am pretty sure they will do it again if the need/danger arises.

As for the question about Israel being a US ally, the answer is a strong yes, there are definite politicial, social, economic and military connections between the 2 countries (ie the Lebanon conflct and various US consulate bombings relate directly to this relationship).

[Gedunker]

Israel is believed to be a member of the nuclear weapons club, although it has never commented either way. Some believe the nation has as many as 100 warheads with a capability of 950 miles (more or less). So the first question is: What would Israel do?

As donk mentioned, Israel has used pre-emptive strikes previously (I believe it was late 70s, in fact), and they would either do it again, or unleash a vicious reply. The second question is: What happens next? Sadly, I have no idea.

[PlannerGirl]

I am with Donk on this, I dont think Israel will let Iran get to the point of harming them. We know who the serious scary military intel and black ops guys are and they wear a star of David. I sure as hell would not want to mess with Israel.

But I am biased

[michaelskis]

Let's just hope that the UN grows a set and stopps them... after all

Well, if we disciplined our kids like the UN The following would happen.

If you steal:
We will form a committee to see if you really stole by searching for the item
If you do it again
We will form a committee to see if you really stole by searching for the item again
If you do it again
We will send you a letter asking you if you did it
If you do it again
We will send you a letter asking you not to
If you do it again
We will check to see if what you stole complies with a resolution
If you do it again
We will send you a strongly worded letter
If you do it again
We will ask you to seal something we might like
If you do it again
We will ask France if we can discipline you
If you do it again
We will form a committee to find you why your doing it
If you do it again
We will take away your extra candy privileges... for a few hours,
If you do it again
We will draft a resolution condemning it, unless specific conditions apply
If you do it again
We will ask Green Peace about it
If you do it again
We will blame the President
If you do it again
We will blame the staff of the President
If you do it again
We will blame Great Britain for helping the President
If you do it again
We will buy you a bunny
If you do it again
We will say that the CIA did not have adequate intelligence to blame you
If you do it again
We will ask why
If you do it again
We will send another strongly worded letter
If you do it again
We will look the other way and pretend that it did not happen at all.

[donk]

I am with Donk on this, I dont think Israel will let Iran get to the point of harming them. We know who the serious scary military intel and black ops guys are and they wear a star of David. I sure as hell would not want to mess with Israel.

But I am biased

Guess i should have prefaced my post with the following warning - Zionist Opinion follows.

[mendelman]

Since it would be, fundamentally, between Iran and Israel, I think the USA should stay out of it, initally, because the Israelis will wreak holy-heck on Iran.

The USA will eventually be be drawn in because Israel will need to use US-controlled Iraq in order to attack Iran.

Then the Iraqis will get hurt again because of an Iranian war, and they will start more formalized guerilla warfare against the US troops in Iraq.

(Iraq will become party to the war, in some manner, because of its location.)

[Greenescapist]

Wow, that would be such a horrible scenerio. I had to go with bomb every city in Iran twice. Not that that's practical, but we could not just sit idle if something like that happened. I would definitely support a strong military hit on Iran-- maybe not nukes-- but something that showed them the US is Israel's partner and ally.

[zman]

This is the kind of dumb argument I reference in other threads tonight. Seriously? Is this the best you can do?

I want el guapo's immunity when it comes to attacking someone's argument...

Well, if we disciplined our kids like the UN The following would happen.

If you steal:
We will form a committee to see if you really stole by searching for the item
If you do it again
We will form a committee to see if you really stole by searching for the item again
If you do it again
We will send you a letter asking you if you did it
If you do it again
We will send you a letter asking you not to
If you do it again
We will check to see if what you stole complies with a resolution
If you do it again
We will send you a strongly worded letter
If you do it again
We will ask you to seal something we might like
If you do it again
We will ask France if we can discipline you
If you do it again
We will form a committee to find you why your doing it
If you do it again
We will take away your extra candy privileges... for a few hours,
If you do it again
We will draft a resolution condemning it, unless specific conditions apply
If you do it again
We will ask Green Peace about it
If you do it again
We will blame the President
If you do it again
We will blame the staff of the President
If you do it again
We will blame Great Britain for helping the President
If you do it again
We will buy you a bunny
If you do it again
We will say that the CIA did not have adequate intelligence to blame you
If you do it again
We will ask why
If you do it again
We will send another strongly worded letter
If you do it again
We will look the other way and pretend that it did not happen at all.

Really? That's a funny joke MSkis...

[giff57]

I want el guapo's immunity when it comes to attacking someone's argument...

Note that EG said it was a dumb argument, not that the poster was dumb. That is the proper way to state it.

[Dan]

I think it's a pretty well-known fact by now that you don't fark with Israel. If anything, I would expect that other Islamic nations would put pressure on Iran not to be the aggressor because ... well, you can't satisfy the Five Pillars of Islam if there's no longer a destination for the Hajj, if you catch my drift.

If Tel Aviv becomes a glowing crater, though, the best reaction would be to wait a bit. You KNOW there will be claims that the US nuked Tel Aviv so that Israel would react against the Muslim world; many don't want to believe that Iran could have done it. If Israel retaliated right away, it would be bad for the US; there would be no time to present positive evidence -- not just from the US, but from the UK, France, Russia and China -- that Iran was the culprit.

My response: wait for the sympathy of the world to fall behind Israel, and for positive evidence from as many third parties as possible that Iran was the culprit. Only when that happens should the US support retaliation.

In any case, the result isn't going to be pretty.

[jmello]

Something completely different: we invade Iran with ground troops, setting off World War III.

[jmello]

Since it would be, fundamentally, between Iran and Israel, I think the USA should stay out of it, initally, because the Israelis will wreak holy-heck on Iran.

Israel is about the size of New Jersey and c. 1/3 of that is Palestine. There will be nothing left of Israel after a nuclear attack.

[mendelman]

Israel is about the size of New Jersey and c. 1/3 of that is Palestine. There will be nothing left of Israel after a nuclear attack.

Well, that depends on the size of the Iranian attack, doesn't? If it's just one warhead, and the victim knows the origin, then Israel would immediately muster the entirety of its national wealth and power to blitzkreig (Godwin) Iran's ass.

I've little faith that the same pecentage of Iranians would muster for war as would be mustered in Israel. Plus, probably every last Israeli (Jewish, at least) would fight to the death against such an attack.

[pete-rock]

Since it would be, fundamentally, between Iran and Israel, I think the USA should stay out of it, initally, because the Israelis will wreak holy-heck on Iran.

The USA will eventually be be drawn in because Israel will need to use US-controlled Iraq in order to attack Iran.

Then the Iraqis will get hurt again because of an Iranian war, and they will start more formalized guerilla warfare against the US troops in Iraq.

(Iraq will become party to the war, in some manner, because of its location.)

Bingo. I think Mendelman is right on with this one.

In the event of a nuclear attack on Tel Aviv, I think we profess our heartfelt sympathy to the Israelis, but technically stay out of the fray. Israel would initiate the longest, coldest nuclear winter on Iran, but would want to use our bases in Iraq to do it. I think we accommodate that.

That action would change everything in the Middle East, and we would draw the blame for it. I think we then have to ratchet up our troops in Iraq, because this has World War III potential. We have to take extra measures to say that our role in the region is confined to Iraq, even though Iran, Syria and everyone will try to bring us beyond there.

Bottom line -- we support Israel, but only diplomatically. And we tighten up our role in Iraq in the face of a new firestorm.

[mgk920]

Did Israel not bomb Iranian nuclear plants in the early 80's? I am pretty sure they did and am pretty sure they will do it again if the need/danger arises.

As for the question about Israel being a US ally, the answer is a strong yes, there are definite politicial, social, economic and military connections between the 2 countries (ie the Lebanon conflct and various US consulate bombings relate directly to this relationship).

Actually, Israel took out a reactor in Iraq. It drew a firestorm of protest from the rest of the World, but Saddam's nuculer weapons program never recovered to the point of having a bomb, even though he was trying.

I, too, am expecting Israel to neutralize Iran's nuclear weapons program in the same manner. And if Tel Aviv is ever nuked, look for what ever country did it to glow, along with Mecca and Medina. Also, even though Jews regard pigs as 'unclean' animals in the same manner as Muslims, they are not prohibited from touching pork products, so the Israelis painting the bomb casings with lard would drive home that point even more. In fact, many El Al pilots carry a can of cured ham in the cockpits of their airliners as a further 'safety' measure.

Mike

[giff57]

Your scenario brings a question, how different would our response to Iran's nuke program be if we had not gone to Iraq on tweaked intel? Are we more vunerable now that we were mislead on this one?

I'm not sure how soon we shoot the growling dog. It is always tough to know when to act to prevent things. We cannot go after every country that has nukes. We should however remove any country's ability to do it again should they be stupid enough to do it once.

[Lee Nellis]

What I want to know, EG, is how the Iranians could do this without irradiating the Palestinians whose homeland they are trying to restore? Likewise, other Muslims in nearby Syria, Lebanon, Jordan, etc. Are the ayatollahs really that crazy?

But of course that is not the point here. Re the other poll that is going around, I am all for anyone's right to set up a poll or express any opinion, but liberal-baiting is only amusing for so long.

[donk]

Actually, Israel took out a reactor in Iraq. It drew a firestorm of protest from the rest of the World, but Saddam's nuculer weapons program never recovered to the point of having a bomb, even though he was trying.

Mike

Thanks for the clarification, I was not sure. With this info, i would suggest the same course of action occurring, especially considering the advances in technology and general disdain for fundamentalist rhetoric in this region of the world from others right now.

Maybe the Israelis best denfense is to treat the Palestinians even nicer and have more living in the country. The treatment of Palestinians by the Israelis is always used as a justification of Arab hate towards Israel, but Israel is one of the few countries in the region where Palestinians can actually be citizens and vote, seems odd.

[imaplanner]

Iran will not nuke Israel. Thats not going to happen. Israel is not suspected to have nuclear weapons- they have them but just won't admit it (they do not deny it either). Everyone knows they have them. Iran will not attack Israel because they know what would happen. The (main) reason Iran is seeking nuclear weapons is to counter any threat they see from Israel. Israel has long (for 20 years or so) been able to do what they want in the middle east with relative impunity because everyone knows they have the nukes. This is perhaps the most significant reason why middle eastern states seek nuclear capabilities. It is in our interest to preserve Israels nuclear advantage.