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Thread: Ever question Census Bureau population estimates ?

  1. #1
    Cyburbian Plus JNA's avatar
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    Ever question Census Bureau population estimates ?

    My example is that they are showing a township in my fair county that doubled in population between 2000 and 2004.

    What makes this so un-believeable is that this township:
    - Does not have water or sewer service;
    - Is entirely in both the floodplain and floodway (riverbottoms farm land);
    - No subdivisions platted or housing permits issued in at least 16 yrs.


    So much for their allocation modeling.
    Oddball
    Why don't you knock it off with them negative waves?
    Why don't you dig how beautiful it is out here?
    Why don't you say something righteous and hopeful for a change?
    From Kelly's Heroes (1970)


    Are you sure you're not hurt ?
    No. Just some parts wake up faster than others.
    Broke parts take a little longer, though.
    From Electric Horseman (1979)

  2. #2
    Suspended Bad Email Address teshadoh's avatar
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    Was it from the American Community Survey? Every estimate is suspicous from that project.

  3. #3
    Cyburbian
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    I've got the same concerns. Our county doesn't have building permits... only about 1/4 of the structures built in the county do need some type of permit (due to an arcane montana law), so how the heck are they estimating the number of other houses? They aren't talking to us about it at all!

  4. #4
    Cyburbian Cardinal's avatar
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    Census estimates have never been all that reliable. They are based on statistical models that may predict the larger areas with some relative accuracy, but in small areas they tend to be far off. At least this is my experience. To give them some credit, though, they are more accurate than some of the data vendors I use. These companies use formulas that seem especially poor when it comes to rural areas.
    Anyone want to adopt a dog?

  5. #5

    Population Estimate Methodologies

    My city uses the Housing Unit Method to estimate population. This method only tracks new builds and demolitions. It fails to accurately track in-migration.

    So, my questions are...What method does your city use? If you use the Housing Unit Method how do you account for migration?

    Thanks,
    Paragon06

  6. #6
    Cyburbian Tide's avatar
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    Oct 2005
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    Yeah, but if you went from 10 to 20 citizens it wouldn't be so unbelievable.
    @GigCityPlanner

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