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Poll results: My thoughts on the current nuclear situation with Iran

Voters
52. You may not vote on this poll
  • This will be the end of the world as we know it.

    0 0%
  • Damn serious, my guess is that some Israeli nukes will go off before it is over

    4 7.69%
  • Damn serious, my guess is that the US will end up taking out the Iranian nuclear program.

    12 23.08%
  • It will get tense, and Iran will blink.

    8 15.38%
  • Israel will go bye-bye in a double flash of Islamic nuclear power.

    1 1.92%
  • The UN or the Russians will work out a solution.

    4 7.69%
  • Good old fashioned diplomacy will solve this problem.

    1 1.92%
  • I don't have a clue how this is going to resolve itself.

    19 36.54%
  • Some completely different perspective which I will now share.

    2 3.85%
  • No opinion

    1 1.92%
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Thread: The situation with Iran

  1. #26
    Chairman of the bored Maister's avatar
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    Quote Originally posted by jresta
    even if the north koreans were strictly on the defensive and the US used its superior air power to take out the big guns you still have a huge land force (without the arab shame of being associated with the losing side - and thus switching sides or abandoning the fight) and given that the US can't control Iraq or Afghanistan 3 and 4 years later forgive me if i don't hold out much hope for North Korea.
    In addition, I would add that the Korean people (north and south) have an extremely martial character (just ask anyone who has ever been there). I think it rather more likely they would dig in and fight hard defending their homeland than throw down their arms after token resistance.
    People will miss that it once meant something to be Southern or Midwestern. It doesn't mean much now, except for the climate. The question, “Where are you from?” doesn't lead to anything odd or interesting. They live somewhere near a Gap store, and what else do you need to know? - Garrison Keillor

  2. #27
    Cyburbian
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    I say let Israel deal with them. They have launched very successful operations in the past, let them give it a go and take some heat for it. If they fail we can always bring in the big guns. I do not see a peaceful solution to this, from a standpoint of stopping Iran down the path it is going. I think anything short of force will not stop them. That said I hope I am wrong and due to the U.S. current standing in the world community I think we must go through the political process before jumping on the war bandwagon. Showing that we have made all reasonable attempts to avoid another war. But then again like I said, maybe Israel can take care of this??? I'm not sure what Iran's AA protection system is like? I do not believe it nearly as formidable as Iraq's pre Gulf War or Desert Storm???

  3. #28
    Cyburbian michaelskis's avatar
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    I don’t know about all of this... I think that Maister and a few others are giving Iran way to much credit for being logical. I would be very surprised if this ends without a good number of people getting killed. I think that the UN is going to get involved, but Iran nuke one of its neighbors before anything is done.

    If you look at history, people gamble on consequences. Look at all the times that one group have invaded the territory of another group. It has been going on since the beginning of time. Leaders will gamble to gain land at the cost of the blood of their solders. As time and technology increase, so does the potential number of casualties. Unless the rulers of Iran back down, let the UN inspectors back into the power plants, and are willing to conform to strict monitoring and inspections, then this will not end peacefully.
    Not my monkey, not my circus. - Old Polish Proverb

  4. #29
    Chairman of the bored Maister's avatar
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    Quote Originally posted by michaelskis
    I don’t know about all of this... I think that Maister and a few others are giving Iran way to much credit for being logical.
    I'm not surprised to hear you say it. Probably most Americans believe, for instance, that a handful of Iranian kooks got together with no provocation whatsoever and on a crazy lark decided to take over the American embassy and depose the Shah. Fact is most Iranians supported/were sympathetic with the revolt in 1979 - it was not some massively illogical/unjustified action. It was borne from a growing concern over American hegemony and the Pahlevi regime's flagrant corruption.
    http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Operation_Ajax
    Any Iranian schoolkid could tell you about "Operation Ajax" But you'd be hard pressed to find an American who's heard of it before. It explains something about Iranian antipathy extended our way and our conclusions about them 'not acting locgically'. We must be willing and able to see things from outside our own views both on a personal scale and on a national scale or else we are condemned to an endless cycle of inflicting pain on each other.
    People will miss that it once meant something to be Southern or Midwestern. It doesn't mean much now, except for the climate. The question, “Where are you from?” doesn't lead to anything odd or interesting. They live somewhere near a Gap store, and what else do you need to know? - Garrison Keillor

  5. #30

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    Quote Originally posted by Maister
    I'm not surprised to hear you say it. Probably most Americans believe, for instance, that a handful of Iranian kooks got together with no provocation whatsoever and on a crazy lark decided to take over the American embassy and depose the Shah. .
    This is true. Amercians as a group tend to believe the most pollyannish view of our motives and our actions. (When we are not being outright aggressively racist. Few Americans know, for example, that we slaughtered 200,000 Philipino "rebels" after taking the islands from Spain in order to "Chirstianize and Civilillize" the brown inferior race).

    This willingness to believe in "The Cause" allows us to be useful as cannon fodder to those who make the decisions, often for economic reasons or so-called Realpolitic, to wage war. And for those who claim this is "un-American," I would argue that what is more idealistic, "My country right or wrong" or "My country should do right." Especially as the so-called realpolitic seems to almost always backfire and cause worse problems.

  6. #31
    Cyburbian Michele Zone's avatar
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    Quote Originally posted by BKM
    This is true. Amercians as a group tend to believe the most pollyannish view of our motives and our actions.
    A foreign friend of mine routinely tells me that a) Americans are rather thoroughly brainwashed to believe that we have the best motives, etc. ("and don't confuse me with the facts") and get a rather one-sided view of history in the schools, the press, etc. and b) the fairly high percentage of Americans who spend some part of their lives in the military conditions us as a culture to simply "follow orders" and be rather unquestioning of authority, Official versions of events, etc.


    The older I get, the more I agree with her.

  7. #32

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    Quote Originally posted by Michele Zone
    A foreign friend of mine routinely tells me that a) Americans are rather thoroughly brainwashed to believe that we have the best motives, etc. ("and don't confuse me with the facts") and get a rather one-sided view of history in the schools, the press, etc. and b) the fairly high percentage of Americans who spend some part of their lives in the military conditions us as a culture to simply "follow orders" and be rather unquestioning of authority, Official versions of events, etc.


    The older I get, the more I agree with her.
    The problem is, I WANT US to have good motives. But, the cynicism rears its ugly head, again and again.

    Small states at least cause less damage (even if they seem to be more violent).

  8. #33
    Cyburbian Michele Zone's avatar
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    Quote Originally posted by BKM
    The problem is, I WANT US to have good motives. But, the cynicism rears its ugly head, again and again.

    Small states at least cause less damage (even if they seem to be more violent).
    As an individual, I find that I am more likely to have good motives when I keep a healthy a dose of cynicism at hand for self-examination. When I am too convinced of my own goodness, then my "heroic" actions are more likely to be about seeking ego-gratification than about Doing The Right Thing. My husband tells me that when Roman Generals came back from war triumphant and had a Triumph (parade, etc) in their honor, they rode in a chariot crowned with a laurel wreath and a slave stood behind them whispering something like "victory is fleeting" (anyone who knows Roman history better than I is more than welcome to nitpick). I think America really is the worse for having lost some sense of humbleness and perspective. I do not think American went into WWII with hopes of being heroic and lauded. But we now seem to think that any time we go to war, everyone is supposed to understand that we do so "for their good" and we act all shocked if they don't appreciate it.

    My understanding is that the Iranians blame America for supporting the Shah. I think it is foolish to send American inspectors in there and act like the Iranians are paranoid for not trusting them. That would be like having, say, Cuba come in and look over our shoulder. Wouldn't it be reasonable to find a more neutral third party whose presence alone would not be deemed inflammatory?

  9. #34

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    This is pretty interesting. Another doomsday scenario, or a real threat*? An Iranian Economic Nuclear Bomb? Is the Great American Depression threatening. http://www.energybulletin.net/12125.html


    *I know nothing about Energy Bulletin, but it still is interesting.,

  10. #35
    Cyburbian mgk920's avatar
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    Quote Originally posted by Michele Zone
    My understanding is that the Iranians blame America for supporting the Shah. I think it is foolish to send American inspectors in there and act like the Iranians are paranoid for not trusting them. That would be like having, say, Cuba come in and look over our shoulder. Wouldn't it be reasonable to find a more neutral third party whose presence alone would not be deemed inflammatory?
    My sense on the Iranian people is that since Iran is a very young country, with between 2/3 and 3/4 of the population having no memory of the Shah and only memories of the rule of the mullahs, and with a significant percentage of the population that DOES like the USA, wanting us to reopen our embassy (remember that Iran was one of the few places in the Islamic world where prayer vigils broke out spontaneously on 2001-09-11), it is only a matter of time that the religious rulers are overthrown. They have been running increasingly scared in recent years.

    Remember that the current power-that-be there was placed in that position of power by the hard-line mullahs after they sent the elected moderates packing, afraid that the moderates were going too far down the 'wrong' path.

    Unfortunately, my crystal ball is totally foggy on how things will play out there over the next few years.

    Mike

  11. #36
    Iran is surrounded by countries occupied by the U.S. military, an army led by a man who declared Iran to be evil. The U.S. government has a long history of meddling in Iranian business.

    Use some empathy here. If you were the Iranian president, wouldn't you want all the nuclear weapons you can get your hands on before they get you?

    Quote Originally posted by BKM
    This is pretty interesting. Another doomsday scenario, or a real threat*? An Iranian Economic Nuclear Bomb? Is the Great American Depression threatening. http://www.energybulletin.net/12125.html


    *I know nothing about Energy Bulletin, but it still is interesting.,
    The oil bourse is a dud. No one is going to move assets into a totalitarian socialist islamist state. If the bourse was set up across the Straight of Hormuz then maybe there'd be something to it.

    Regardless the American economy is going to depress from credit contraction no matter what happens in Iran.

  12. #37
    Cyburbian michaelskis's avatar
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    Quote Originally posted by Maister
    I'm not surprised to hear you say it. Probably most Americans believe, for instance, that a handful of Iranian kooks got together with no provocation whatsoever and on a crazy lark decided to take over the American embassy and depose the Shah. Fact is most Iranians supported/were sympathetic with the revolt in 1979 - it was not some massively illogical/unjustified action. It was borne from a growing concern over American hegemony and the Pahlevi regime's flagrant corruption.
    http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Operation_Ajax
    Any Iranian schoolkid could tell you about "Operation Ajax" But you'd be hard pressed to find an American who's heard of it before. It explains something about Iranian antipathy extended our way and our conclusions about them 'not acting locgically'. We must be willing and able to see things from outside our own views both on a personal scale and on a national scale or else we are condemned to an endless cycle of inflicting pain on each other.
    I think that you’re missing one important aspect of this. The current Iranian government is not thinking in logical terms, but more so along the lines of a terrorist. I don’t think that Al Qaeda thought they considered the consequences of their actions. Iran’s hatred for their neighbors is on a similar scale.
    Not my monkey, not my circus. - Old Polish Proverb

  13. #38
    Chairman of the bored Maister's avatar
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    Quote Originally posted by michaelskis
    I think that you’re missing one important aspect of this. The current Iranian government is not thinking in logical terms, but more so along the lines of a terrorist. I don’t think that Al Qaeda thought they considered the consequences of their actions. Iran’s hatred for their neighbors is on a similar scale.
    Perhaps you're right. Maybe you could elaborate a little about how they are acting or thinking like 'terrorists'? And also please give your opinion on what you think we should do to/about states that talk/act in such a manner.
    Last edited by Maister; 14 Feb 2006 at 10:17 AM.
    People will miss that it once meant something to be Southern or Midwestern. It doesn't mean much now, except for the climate. The question, “Where are you from?” doesn't lead to anything odd or interesting. They live somewhere near a Gap store, and what else do you need to know? - Garrison Keillor

  14. #39

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    Quote Originally posted by Maister
    Perhaps you're right. Maybe you could elaborate a little about how they are acting or thinking like 'terrorists'? And also please give your opinion on what you think we should do to/about states that talk/act in such a manner.

    Hm. I wonder if surrounding an occupied but "rebel" city with troops, allowing only women, children, and boys under 12 to leave, then levelling said city to the ground with aerial bombardment and artillery also counts as "acting like a terrorist." Or, maybe sodomizing young prisoners. Or maybe capturing women and children to encourage "suspects" to turn themselves in.

    Go ahead, m'skis. Just keep using those oh so comfortable buzzwords and talking points. The enemy is, after all, subhuman and must be UTTERLY CRUSHED so that we can bring the sweet, sweet nectar of liberty and conglomerate capitalism to their oh so undeserving brown semitic souls.

  15. #40
    Cyburbian jresta's avatar
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    Quote Originally posted by BKM
    brown semitic souls.
    how un-PC of you.

    iranians are Persians, not arabs. They speak Farsi, and indo-european language closely related to Kurdish.

    The irony of the semitic languages is that they include arabic and hebrew and then the Ehtiopian languages - many speakers of which would love to emigrate to Israel but are made to jump through hoops to prove their Jewishness.

    Back on topic - The Iranians have never had designs for empire. They've fought with the arabs a lot throughout their history but it seems to me to be mostly about border disputes and the iranians resisting arab culture (as islam, imho, seems to be more a vehicle for that culture than anything else). I'm aware of their forays into Iraq and Afghanistan but again, it looks more like a "if our neighboring countries are secure and stable (friendly to us) then we'll be secure. I think now more than ever they just want secure borders so the old clerics can keep living out their fantasy of a closed religious society in a modern world.

    I wouldn't put too much stock in one firebrand politician - if he had any real power he wouldn't be showing his cards. I think he's existence is just a carefully calculated distraction to buy them enough time to get their weapons built.
    Indeed you can usually tell when the concepts of democracy and citizenship are weakening. There is an increase in the role of charity and in the worship of volunteerism. These represent the élite citizen's imitation of noblesse oblige; that is, of pretending to be aristocrats or oligarchs, as opposed to being citizens.

  16. #41
    Cyburbian jresta's avatar
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    Quote Originally posted by Maister
    In addition, I would add that the Korean people (north and south) have an extremely martial character (just ask anyone who has ever been there).
    Judging by popular reaction to a free trade agreement with Chile . . .









    I'd say that sounds like a pretty acurate assesment.
    Indeed you can usually tell when the concepts of democracy and citizenship are weakening. There is an increase in the role of charity and in the worship of volunteerism. These represent the élite citizen's imitation of noblesse oblige; that is, of pretending to be aristocrats or oligarchs, as opposed to being citizens.

  17. #42

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    Quote Originally posted by jresta
    how un-PC of you.

    iranians are Persians, not arabs. They speak Farsi, and indo-european language closely related to Kurdish. .
    You know, I did really know that. An Iranian would be quite insulted, I understand, to be called an Arab.

  18. #43
    Cyburbian Planit's avatar
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    After making a couple posts on this thread and reading through it, the situation maybe that the guy is pulling a "North Korea" tact on the US. Granted, they are completly different societies and all that, BUT...

    Think about it, North Korea won't let anyone look at their nuke stuff. Now Iran is saying the same thing. Now, go away or I will taunt you a second time you silly English k-nnnig-its
    "Whatever beer I'm drinking, is better than the one I'm not." DMLW
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  19. #44
    Cyburbian michaelskis's avatar
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    Quote Originally posted by jresta
    Judging by popular reaction to a free trade agreement with Chile . . .



    I'd say that sounds like a pretty acurate assesment.
    Wow, this guy is logical! I bet he is thinking:
    Quote Originally posted by Crazy guy with a stick
    I am going to take you all down. True all I have is a big stick and all 200 of you have body armor, shields, and enough fire power to turn my body into dust, but I know I can win this fight!”
    Not my monkey, not my circus. - Old Polish Proverb

  20. #45
    Cyburbian imaplanner's avatar
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    Quote Originally posted by Planit
    After making a couple posts on this thread and reading through it, the situation maybe that the guy is pulling a "North Korea" tact on the US. Granted, they are completly different societies and all that, BUT...

    Think about it, North Korea won't let anyone look at their nuke stuff. Now Iran is saying the same thing. Now, go away or I will taunt you a second time you silly English k-nnnig-its
    I dont think so. North korea was building weapons and pulling all that crap in order to essentially bribe the west. In my opinion Iran is committed to building nukes in order to counterbalance what they perceive as the Israeli stronghold over mid-east policy. I don't think the Iranians are crazy at all - to believe that as some have mentioned I think is way oversimplification of a delicate and dangerous situation.

    IMO the solution absolutely has to account for Israel's nuclear arsenal.

  21. #46
    After making a couple posts on this thread and reading through it, the situation maybe that the guy is pulling a "North Korea" tact on the US. Granted, they are completly different societies and all that, BUT...

    Think about it, North Korea won't let anyone look at their nuke stuff. Now Iran is saying the same thing. Now, go away or I will taunt you a second time you silly English k-nnnig-its
    True but the administration has a grasp of where Iran is with regards to its nuclear programs. One major distinction from North Korea would be that up until the late 70's the US was eager to make Iran a nuclear powered state and had sold equipment for the full nuclear cycle. Between Kahn selling centrifuge technology and existing nuclear supplies on hand, it's not a stretch to think that a program has been under way for years in some remote under mountain hideout. Is Iran at "breakout capability"?

  22. #47
    Cyburbian dobopoq's avatar
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    I think Iran has good reason to be irked by the Nuclear double standard that the U.S. and Israel have relative to currently non-Nuclear Arab/Islamic countries.

    To zoom out a bit from the tension of the immediate situation:

    I think the western world has claimed more than its fair share of the cultural spotlight in the past 5 centuries. I think its time the west got down a bit more with Arab culture. As the clean-shaven, suit-wearing capitalists of the industrial west and East Asia continue to watch the zeros add onto their bank accounts, they would be wise to recall that the numbers they use were in part a cultural import from the many mathematical advances made by Arabs nearly a millenium ago.

    The cultural center of gravity has shifted many times. We can either celebrate and learn from each other, or we can revert - as we often have before, to the reptilian parts of our psyche that cannot see beyond an endless cycle of violence.
    "The current American way of life is founded not just on motor transportation but on the religion of the motorcar, and the sacrifices that people are prepared to make for this religion stand outside the realm of rational criticism." -Lewis Mumford

  23. #48
    Cyburbian ijustkrushalot's avatar
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    I REALLY think that the next 20-30 years will be... well.... not good.

    The more I look at the Middle East, I see a culture of hundreds of millions of individuals that is so far removed and opposed to western culture, I don't see any middle ground.

    I have a hard time imagining a future in which there isn't a MASSIVE clash of civilizations at some point... In an increasingly globalized and connected world... I don't see earth being big enough for the two cultures... and as a result I am worried.

    10 years ago I had a hard time imagining where another war could possibly come from.

    Now I think we COULD be seeing the start of World War III... and I am not sure there is much anyone can do to stop it. I hope I am wrong.

    Remember... there has never been a class from the United States Military Academy that hasn't seen a major theater-scale war during their 20-30 year careers.. and America has gone to war nearly every 10-15 years or so since the beginning of the 1900's (except for 1918-1941)

    I really hope I am being overly negative about all of this...

  24. #49
    Cyburbian abrowne's avatar
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    I can understand Iran wanting nuclear weapons - whether or not they are actually working towards that remains to be seen. Iraq was identified as having weapons of mass destruction, but didn't, and got its ass kicked. If I were Iraq's neighbour and stated enemy of the USA ("Axis of Evil") I'd be working hard to procure some nuclear insurance, too.

  25. #50
    Cyburbian jresta's avatar
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    Quote Originally posted by ijustkrushalot
    10 years ago I had a hard time imagining where another war could possibly come from.
    you don't see any of these recent events as being remotely connected to Bush's Crusade?

    Or that it has nothing to do with the US paving the way for the theocracy in Iran?

    Or that it has nothing to do with Israelis using American money, helicopter gunships, F-16s, and bulldozers to keep Palestinians corraled in overgrown internment camps?

    and apparently the White House has yet to learn any lessons from history as they're trying, yet again, to control the outcome of mid-east politics

    U.S. and Israelis Are Said to Talk of Hamas Ouster

    By STEVEN ERLANGER
    Published: February 14, 2006
    JERUSALEM, Feb. 13 — The United States and Israel are discussing ways to destabilize the Palestinian government so that newly elected Hamas officials will fail and elections will be called again, according to Israeli officials and Western diplomats.

    The intention is to starve the Palestinian Authority of money and international connections to the point where, some months from now, its president, Mahmoud Abbas, is compelled to call a new election. The hope is that Palestinians will be so unhappy with life under Hamas that they will return to office a reformed and chastened Fatah movement.

    http://www.nytimes.com/2006/02/14/in...14mideast.html

    of course, "free" trade has just as much to do with it.
    Indeed you can usually tell when the concepts of democracy and citizenship are weakening. There is an increase in the role of charity and in the worship of volunteerism. These represent the élite citizen's imitation of noblesse oblige; that is, of pretending to be aristocrats or oligarchs, as opposed to being citizens.

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