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Thread: The Morbid SF Earthquake Wager Thread AIB This weather SUCKS!

  1. #1
    Cyburbian Michele Zone's avatar
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    The Morbid SF Earthquake Wager Thread AIB This weather SUCKS!

    AIB This weather SUCKS!
    Quote Originally posted by BKM
    San Francisco cancelled its historic Easter Sunrise Service on Mount Davidson because of the torrential rainstorm.

    In Solano County, it's rained almost five inches in April so far. The usual is less than an inch. BUT: today is bright and sunny with puffy clouds. Of course, that means POLLEN, POLLEN; AND MORE POLLEN. My lungs are shutting down at the thought. And, the hills are alive with gigantic jungles of flammable broom and grasses (boy, broom is pretty-bright yellow flowers). The ski resourts still have 300 inches of snow in some locations. Can you say spring flooding? 36 inches of snow last night.

    And, of course, it's the centennial of 1906, so the media doom and gloom is palpable out here.
    Quote Originally posted by Michele Zone
    We should start a thread "wagering" on where the epicenter will be (or perhaps on the magnitude).
    Quote Originally posted by The One
    The thread and add a poll.....we can have date, year and magnitude....
    I can't imagine creating a poll for that. I mean, how many years would I list? Would I have to add a seperate entry for each magnitude for that specific year?? etc.

    My guess: This year, somewhere between 8.0 and 10.0 I think the epicenter will be somewhere in the East Bay.

  2. #2
    Unfrozen Caveman Planner mendelman's avatar
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    Year: 2016

    Epicenter: Oakland

    Magnitude: 8.9
    I'm sorry. Is my bias showing?

    The ends can justify the means.

  3. #3
    Cyburbian michaelskis's avatar
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    Year: September 10, 2006 at 7:58 am
    Epicenter: Alameda (Oakland)
    Magnitude: 9.4

    Result... SF Bay reaches from southern Oregon to Baja Mexico.


    I wonder what would happen with real estate values in SF after the big one hits...

    Personally, I am happy that I live in Michigan. We might get a blizzard from time to time, but growing up in the UP, I can deal with those.
    Last edited by michaelskis; 17 Apr 2006 at 4:24 PM.
    "A long habit of not thinking a thing wrong, gives it a superficial appearance of being right, and raises at first a formidable outcry in defense of custom. Time makes more converts than reason." - Thomas Paine Common Sense.

  4. #4
    Cyburbian Michele Zone's avatar
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    Quote Originally posted by michaelskis
    I wonder what would happen with real estate values in SF after the big one hits...
    I don't know. Perhaps prices would plummet because of all the loss of infrastructure, etc. Or perhaps they would go higher because of so many people needing a new place to live (ie demand pressures). Anyone know what happened to real estate prices in the Bay Area after the 1906 Great Quake? (which was Spun into The Great Fire and they lying claimed there were only 478 deaths so they could fast-talk investors into helping them rebuild)

    Back on topic: are you making a guess or aren't you?

  5. #5
    Cyburbian Planderella's avatar
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    I'm not waging any bets when it comes to Mother Nature. HOWEVER, I would like to bet on what kind of response FEMA would have following this disaster.
    "A witty woman is a treasure, a witty beauty is a power!"

  6. #6
    I'm thinking a bi-lateral rupture on the hayward fault, mag. 7.1, centered near Livermore. Damage in excess of $200bn. 07/07/07. 7:07 pm, PST.

    JNA is in (or very near) the danger zone for New Madrid while I'm on the edge, so location in the midwest is no guarantee of safety from the hazard of quakes.
    Je suis Charlie

  7. #7
    Cyburbian The One's avatar
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    Here Goes....

    I say Friday the 13th of October 2006 at approximately 3:35PM, epicenter will be near Livermore and it will be a magnitude 9.8
    "The modern conservative is engaged in one of man's oldest exercises in moral philosophy; that is, the search for a superior moral justification for selfishness."
    John Kenneth Galbraith

  8. #8
    Cyburbian jordanb's avatar
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    Quote Originally posted by Planderella
    HOWEVER, I would like to bet on what kind of response FEMA would have following this disaster.
    Heh. Sounds like a plan. Wager on how many days go buy before the feds notice.
    Reality does not conform to your ideology.
    http://neighborhoods.chicago.il.us Photographs of Life in the Neighborhoods of Chicago
    http://hafd.org/~jordanb/ Pretentious Weblog.

  9. #9
    Cyburbian Michele Zone's avatar
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    Quote Originally posted by Planderella
    I'm not waging any bets when it comes to Mother Nature. HOWEVER, I would like to bet on what kind of response FEMA would have following this disaster.
    The 1906 quake was the first disaster that was widely photographed, which is probably a contributing factor to the fact that it got the largest outpouring of support/relief in the last 100 years or so. I bet a second major quake in that area would be met with a certain amount of cynicism a la "Why the hell did you build there in the first place? You knew it wasn't stable." If it does come sometime in the near future (within the next 5 years even), I suspect that we still won't have recovered enough from Katrina for the nation as a whole to have much to give. Sort of "disaster burn out".

    (that's moderately garbeled-sounding as it doesn't directly address the question of FEMA. Oh well)

    Quote Originally posted by jordanb
    Heh. Sounds like a plan. Wager on how many days go buy before the feds notice.
    Actually, in a quake in (I think) the 1980's, some fire person saw the fires in the aftermath on TV and noticed that there were no fire trucks down there -- phone lines became so jammed after the quake that they hadn't yet gotten word. So seeing it on TV is how they discovered they needed to go put out the post-quake fires, thus preventing a repeat of the The Great Fire which followed the The Great Quake in 1906.

  10. #10
    Chairman of the bored Maister's avatar
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    The Big One is gonna hit next Friday, April 28 at 05:32. Will measure 9.0 on the Richter and the Epicenter will be approximately 11 miles southeast of San Fran City Hall. Moments before the event, a glue sniffing punk will wake up and say "whoah, I don't think I shoulda ate that third burrito last night". In other news, on April 29 realtors' business will quadruple as housing in California suddenly becomes 'affordable' for the first time in a generation.
    People will miss that it once meant something to be Southern or Midwestern. It doesn't mean much now, except for the climate. The question, “Where are you from?” doesn't lead to anything odd or interesting. They live somewhere near a Gap store, and what else do you need to know? - Garrison Keillor

  11. #11
    Cyburbian Michele Zone's avatar
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    Quote Originally posted by Maister
    The Big One is gonna hit next Friday, April 28 at 05:32.
    Is that AM of PM?

  12. #12
    Cyburbian illinoisplanner's avatar
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    Sunnyvale, CA
    9.5 magnitude
    November 3, 2006

    Carbondale, IL
    8.3 magnitude
    2010

    Anaheim, CA
    7.7 magnitude
    2012
    "Life's a journey, not a destination"
    -Steven Tyler

  13. #13
    Chairman of the bored Maister's avatar
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    Quote Originally posted by Michele Zone
    Is that AM of PM?
    Last I checked 0532 was in the a.m. and 1732 was in the p.m.
    People will miss that it once meant something to be Southern or Midwestern. It doesn't mean much now, except for the climate. The question, “Where are you from?” doesn't lead to anything odd or interesting. They live somewhere near a Gap store, and what else do you need to know? - Garrison Keillor

  14. #14
    Cyburbian Michele Zone's avatar
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    Quote Originally posted by Maister
    Last I checked 0532 was in the a.m. and 1732 was in the p.m.
    Note to self: Maister still hasn't been deprogrammed from his time in service and thus speaks military-ese such as using the 24 hour clock.

  15. #15
    Cyburbian jordanb's avatar
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    ^-- I think he meant that, in 12 hour time, you always omit the 0, while in 24 hour time, you always include it. Just like how even hours in 12 hour time are "o'clock" and in 24 hour time are "hundred hours." So by including the "0" he implicitly specified 24 hour time.

    Also the USGS always uses 24 hour time.

    Quote Originally posted by illinoisplanner
    Carbondale, IL
    8.3 magnitude
    2010
    Carbondale is quite a ways from New Madrid.
    Reality does not conform to your ideology.
    http://neighborhoods.chicago.il.us Photographs of Life in the Neighborhoods of Chicago
    http://hafd.org/~jordanb/ Pretentious Weblog.

  16. #16
    Cyburbian Michele Zone's avatar
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    Quote Originally posted by jordanb
    ^-- I think he meant that, in 12 hour time, you always omit the 0, while in 24 hour time, you always include it. Just like how even hours in 12 hour time are "o'clock" and in 24 hour time are "hundred hours." So by including the "0" he implicitly specified 24 hour time.

    Also the USGS always uses 24 hour time.
    I knew he meant AM. It was a joke.

    Maybe it would have been funnier to ask him to predict it to the exact second and/or ask him to predict the number of seconds that the initial quake would last.

  17. #17
    Cyburbian illinoisplanner's avatar
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    Quote Originally posted by jordanb

    Carbondale is quite a ways from New Madrid.
    What...like 75 miles?

    And quakes can happen anywhere. There was a 4.3 earthquake in LaSalle a couple years ago.
    "Life's a journey, not a destination"
    -Steven Tyler

  18. #18
    Quote Originally posted by illinoisplanner
    Sunnyvale, CA
    9.5 magnitude
    November 3, 2006

    Carbondale, IL
    8.3 magnitude
    2010

    Anaheim, CA
    7.7 magnitude
    2012

    I could be very wrong (and not for the first time in one of my posts) but Sunnyvale is about the only city in the Bay Area NOT on a fault. It is partially built on filled land, and which will turn to mush. So it will be pretty hard hit.

    My prediction: no one will get it right. But it will be at least a magnitude 7. Probably in the East Bay someplace. Keep your fingers crossed that my mom will get through it fine.

  19. #19
    Cyburbian Plus JNA's avatar
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    Quote Originally posted by jordanb
    Carbondale is quite a ways from New Madrid.
    From my fair city/county Comp Plan -
    Southwestern Indiana is relatively close to two seismic zones: the New Madrid and the Lower Wabash Valley seismic zones.
    The New Madrid Seismic Zone extends from west-central Mississippi northward past Cape Girardeau, Missouri. (which is close to Carbondale)
    The Lower Wabash Valley Seismic Zone generally follows the Wabash River from the Ohio River north to Terre Haute, Indiana.
    In 1895, near Charleston, Missouri there was earthquake was an est. 6.7
    This is very near the confluence of the Ohio and Mississippi Rivers.
    Oddball
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    Why don't you dig how beautiful it is out here?
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    No. Just some parts wake up faster than others.
    Broke parts take a little longer, though.
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  20. #20
    Cyburbian Michele Zone's avatar
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    Quote Originally posted by Gotta Speakup
    I could be very wrong (and not for the first time in one of my posts) but Sunnyvale is about the only city in the Bay Area NOT on a fault. It is partially built on filled land, and which will turn to mush. So it will be pretty hard hit.
    I think there is only one smallish fault in Solano County, which is the flattest and least seismically active county of the 9 counties in the SF Bay area. So I suspect several of the cities in Solano are not directly on a fault. I would bet an entire nickel that Rio Vista isn't on a fault.


    Of course, as one professor told me, Solano County is "a bastard step-child" of the SFBA, so maybe you weren't even thinking of it.

  21. #21
    Cyburbian
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    Quote Originally posted by JNA
    The Lower Wabash Valley Seismic Zone generally follows the Wabash River from the Ohio River north to Terre Haute, Indiana.
    All the way to Terre Haute Maybe I need to look into earthquake insurance.

  22. #22
    Cyburbian Plus JNA's avatar
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    savemattoon not to scare ya but
    About Terre Haute earthquake -
    in 1909 there was an est. 5.1 and listed as the strongest earthquake with an epicenter in Indiana.

    And then in 1987 near Olney there was a 5.1.

    source: Comp Plan
    Oddball
    Why don't you knock it off with them negative waves?
    Why don't you dig how beautiful it is out here?
    Why don't you say something righteous and hopeful for a change?
    From Kelly's Heroes (1970)


    Are you sure you're not hurt ?
    No. Just some parts wake up faster than others.
    Broke parts take a little longer, though.
    From Electric Horseman (1979)

  23. #23
    Cyburbian
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    Quote Originally posted by JNA
    savemattoon not to scare ya but
    About Terre Haute earthquake -
    in 1909 there was an est. 5.1 and listed as the strongest earthquake with an epicenter in Indiana.

    And then in 1987 near Olney there was a 5.1.

    source: Comp Plan
    I remember the Olney one. We felt that one here (everyone but me that is). I was sacking groceries and was outside when it happened. When I came back in, everyone was askin if I felt the earthquake.

  24. #24
    Quote Originally posted by Michele Zone
    I think there is only one smallish fault in Solano County, which is the flattest and least seismically active county of the 9 counties in the SF Bay area. So I suspect several of the cities in Solano are not directly on a fault. I would bet an entire nickel that Rio Vista isn't on a fault.


    Of course, as one professor told me, Solano County is "a bastard step-child" of the SFBA, so maybe you weren't even thinking of it.

    I went to the California Geology Survey website http://www.conservation.ca.gov/CGS/

    I got bad/good news for you. There are faults that run through the southwest corner of Solano County. Welcome to the Bay Area!

  25. #25
    Cyburbian Michele Zone's avatar
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    Quote Originally posted by Gotta Speakup
    I went to the California Geology Survey website http://www.conservation.ca.gov/CGS/

    I got bad/good news for you. There are faults that run through the southwest corner of Solano County. Welcome to the Bay Area!
    I know there is a fault in the South West. Rio Vista is on the eastern edge of the county. I would be curious to see the exact page you pulled up with a map, if you can give me the link.

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