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Poll results: Has The Housing Bubble Burst?

Voters
30. You may not vote on this poll
  • Yes, the bubble has burst!!

    10 33.33%
  • No, the bubble has not burst, just a slowdown....

    9 30.00%
  • Bubble.....what bubble.....

    3 10.00%
  • Sure the bubble burst, but it was a small bubble and we can always blow another one...

    6 20.00%
  • I work for the private sector and beginning tonight, I'll start drinking heavily....

    2 6.67%
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Thread: Housing bubble broke?

  1. #1
    Cyburbian The One's avatar
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    Housing bubble broke?

    So, how many of you out there think the housing bubble has just broke in the last six months? I couldn't believe the # of articles on this issue today:

    Some interesting reads (most are doom and gloom, but a couple point out that new home sales are up in the lower priced homes)
    http://articles.moneycentral.msn.com....aspx?GT1=8618

    http://articles.moneycentral.msn.com...iceReport.aspx

    http://articles.moneycentral.msn.com...SalesFall.aspx

    http://realestate.msn.com/buying/Art...mentid=1097574

    http://realestate.msn.com/buying/Art...umentid=808749


    http://www.chicagotribune.com/busine...i-business-hed

    http://www.courier-journal.com/apps/...NESS/610260333


    http://www.latimes.com/business/la-f...ninav-business
    The median price of a single-family home fell to $219,800 last month, a drop of 2.5% from the price in September 2005. That was the biggest year-over-year price decline in records going back nearly four decades. Prices also fell in August, and the two months marked the first back-to-back declines in 16 years.


    Even Fox decided to put this one on their front page......in a backhanded kind of way.....yeah yeah....sure, their being positive for once.....rrriiiggghhht.....
    http://www.foxnews.com/story/0,2933,225447,00.html

    I'm way more interested in the number of ARM loans out there......
    Skilled Adoxographer

  2. #2
    http://www.cyburbia.org/forums/showthread.php?t=23225

    Complementary gloating link: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=CdDk7B9uoqM
    Seriously, I hope I made someone some money.

  3. #3
    Cyburbian The One's avatar
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    Yup....

    Quote Originally posted by jaws View post
    http://www.cyburbia.org/forums/showthread.php?t=23225

    Complementary gloating link: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=CdDk7B9uoqM
    Seriously, I hope I made someone some money.
    I think you nailed this one Jaws.....nice clip of Colbert.....Did you see the episode with George L. as the guest.....classic and that bit of anime at the end was too funny
    Skilled Adoxographer

  4. #4
    Cyburbian nerudite's avatar
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    Personally, I think it's a slowdown (and I'm talking the US here, not Canada where we're still going strong west of Ontario ). I think speculation ran things up too high, so prices are falling further than usual... but overall, I think this will be a blip eventually. What do I know though... I'm no economist, I just read too many financial reports.

  5. #5
    Cyburbian
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    maybe a good correction in most areas. but job growth is pretty strong in a lot of places.

    what i don't get is this frenzy to root for the bubble to burst among planners and certainly among the media.

  6. #6
    Cyburbian jread's avatar
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    It may be slowing down in the rest of the country, but not here in Austin. Each month we set a new record for new homes built. The housing market here is absolutely insane right now.
    "I don't suffer from insanity... I enjoy every single minute of it!"

  7. #7
    Quote Originally posted by gkmo62u View post
    maybe a good correction in most areas. but job growth is pretty strong in a lot of places.

    what i don't get is this frenzy to root for the bubble to burst among planners and certainly among the media.
    If gasoline were in a bubble, there would be a frenzy for the bubble to burst.

  8. #8
    Unfrozen Caveman Planner mendelman's avatar
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    A pretty strong slowdown here in Chicagoland...especially on the upper-middle of the market, and in the less than ideal locations.

    I am soooo glad we didn't buy something this year - high (irrational) prices and huge jumps in tax assessments (which are probably having as strong an impact on prices).

    2007 will be the chance for us to get something at a reasonable price (aka tell the seller the selling price )
    Last edited by mendelman; 27 Oct 2006 at 9:15 AM.
    I'm sorry. Is my bias showing?

    Let's not be didactic in this profession, because that is a path to disillusion and irrelevancy.

    Six seasons and a movie!

  9. #9
    Cyburbian hilldweller's avatar
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    The bubble is slowly deflating IMO. Down here the prices have pretty much stayed the same but the number of homes sold has plummeted. I think this signals that folks are getting stubborn and don't want to lose their shirts. But since we're starting to see homes stay on the market for 3-6 months the burst is inevitable.

    However, in the wealthier areas of south Florida (Broward, PBC in particular) the downturn has been staggering. Some piece of crap house that only a year ago sold for 450K probably lost 25% of its value.

  10. #10
    Cyburbian Jeff's avatar
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    Prices were always over-inflated. I wouldnt say anything burst, just getting knocked back into line.

  11. #11

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    Quote Originally posted by mendelman View post
    A pretty strong slowdown here in Chicagoland...especially on the upper-middle of the market, and in the less than ideal locations.

    I am soooo glad we didn't buy something this year - high (irrational) prices and huge jumps in tax assessments (which are probably having as strong an impact on prices).

    2007 will be the chance for us to get something at a reasonable price (aka tell the seller the selling price )
    Agreed. The housing market has seriously put on the brakes here, but not quite a bubble-bursting event. I can't find the source, but I did hear on the news this week that condo construction starts in Chicago are down 26% from this time last year.

    I tell my wife this is great news for us, as we're looking for a new home in 2007.

  12. #12
    Cyburbian
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    I don't think it has burst, just a market adjustment. Some markets are still soaring My zip code was up 19% over the same quarter of 2005, wich is down 4% over the previous quarter. So glad ibought my house years ago before we saw such huge increases. I do think some markets (phoenix & Vegas in my region) are way over inflated and they will be hit hard in the next few years.

  13. #13
    NIMBY asshatterer Plus Richmond Jake's avatar
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    On a related note, shssssh, don't tell anybody, but Rumpy's county made the news.

    http://money.cnn.com/popups/2006/biz...x.html?cnn=yes

  14. #14
    moderator in moderation Suburb Repairman's avatar
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    Quote Originally posted by cololi View post
    I don't think it has burst, just a market adjustment. Some markets are still soaring My zip code was up 19% over the same quarter of 2005, wich is down 4% over the previous quarter. So glad ibought my house years ago before we saw such huge increases. I do think some markets (phoenix & Vegas in my region) are way over inflated and they will be hit hard in the next few years.
    I feel the same way. I think this is a correction, not some kind of end days for housing. Things got a little too speculative and the savvy real estate investors have caught on to that.

    Stuff in Texas is still skyrocketing, but that's no surprise. Texas tends to buck the national housing trends--when the nation is down, Texas is up; when the nation is up, Texas often stagnates. These last few years was one of the rare times when the nation and Texas were up at the same time. DFW may start to get interesting though... They've got some really high foreclosure rates that are certain to produce consequences eventually.

    "Oh, that is all well and good, but, voice or no voice, the people can always be brought to the bidding of the leaders. That is easy. All you have to do is tell them they are being attacked and denounce the pacifists for lack of patriotism and exposing the country to danger. It works the same way in any country."

    - Herman Göring at the Nuremburg trials (thoughts on democracy)

  15. #15
    Cyburbian jread's avatar
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    Quote Originally posted by Suburb Repairman View post
    I feel the same way. I think this is a correction, not some kind of end days for housing. Things got a little too speculative and the savvy real estate investors have caught on to that.

    Stuff in Texas is still skyrocketing, but that's no surprise. Texas tends to buck the national housing trends--when the nation is down, Texas is up; when the nation is up, Texas often stagnates. These last few years was one of the rare times when the nation and Texas were up at the same time. DFW may start to get interesting though... They've got some really high foreclosure rates that are certain to produce consequences eventually.
    Do you see Central Texas running into any problems in the future? We are growing so quickly that I wonder if something bad is headed our way. The development happening in South Austin is out of control right now... I've never seen anything like it. They've managed to pave over half of South Park Meadows with a giant shopping center in only a year
    "I don't suffer from insanity... I enjoy every single minute of it!"

  16. #16
    Cyburbian Rumpy Tunanator's avatar
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    CAUTION: Local politicians, notoriously cozy with builders, have green-lighted several master-plan communities for future development. If supply gets out of hand, prices will stall.
    Yep, that pretty much sums it up about the way things work here.

    Anyone want to buy my house?
    A guy once told me, "Do not have any attachments, do not have anything in your life you are not willing to walk out on in 30 seconds flat if you spot the heat around the corner."


    Neil McCauley (Robert DeNiro): Heat 1995

  17. #17
    Cyburbian The One's avatar
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    Ahh.....

    Quote Originally posted by Rumpy Tunanator View post
    Yep, that pretty much sums it up about the way things work here.

    Anyone want to buy my house?
    Sure, drop the price by %35, flush the toilets, remove the stains from the walls, carpet, appliances, mirrors, windows, oven mit and ceiling and throw in a brand new ITE manual, mouth harp and three year subscription to soldier of fortune magazine and you got yourself a god damn deal my friend
    Skilled Adoxographer

  18. #18
    moderator in moderation Suburb Repairman's avatar
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    Quote Originally posted by jread View post
    Do you see Central Texas running into any problems in the future? We are growing so quickly that I wonder if something bad is headed our way. The development happening in South Austin is out of control right now... I've never seen anything like it. They've managed to pave over half of South Park Meadows with a giant shopping center in only a year
    A professor & I were talking about this the other day over a few brews. In Central Texas and San Antonio you are getting a ton of speculative building and investors. You also have some significant problems with predatory lending that are bound to backfire sooner or later. However, this part of Texas is so desireable I'm not sure I see a serious burst... maybe a small market adjustment, but no burst. Many developers around us have learned from the condos & such that grew so popular in Florida and placed investor caps to prevent major issues on that side of the residential market.

    South Park Meadows really upsets me. That was where I went to see my first concert.

    "Oh, that is all well and good, but, voice or no voice, the people can always be brought to the bidding of the leaders. That is easy. All you have to do is tell them they are being attacked and denounce the pacifists for lack of patriotism and exposing the country to danger. It works the same way in any country."

    - Herman Göring at the Nuremburg trials (thoughts on democracy)

  19. #19
    Cyburbian DetroitPlanner's avatar
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    I'm glad I have a small house. Its taking me nearly half the amount of time to pay for it, I have less lawn to mow, and I am not stuck with a giant monster that I can''t unload. People seem to be trading down around here which puts small home owners in a position where prices have not been hit.
    We hope for better things; it will arise from the ashes - Fr Gabriel Richard 1805

  20. #20
    Cyburbian jmello's avatar
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    Quote Originally posted by RichmondJake View post
    On a related note, shssssh, don't tell anybody, but Rumpy's county made the news.

    http://money.cnn.com/popups/2006/biz...x.html?cnn=yes
    My city is number 7. Though, I don't agree with this assessment. The city is surrounded by beach communities with huge gluts of new condos and a lot of the owners within the downtown and at the beaches are speculators. The money driving the market in the last few years has been windfalls from those cashing out up North and buying down here. When that Yankee money dries up, which it will this year, I will be surprised if prices kept escalating here. We are very happy that we sold are place in Boston and decided to rent down here instead of buy.

  21. #21
    Cyburbian jread's avatar
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    Quote Originally posted by Suburb Repairman View post
    South Park Meadows really upsets me. That was where I went to see my first concert.
    Yeah, I'm not very happy about it myself. I remember seeing Dave Matthews Band there in the late 90's.
    "I don't suffer from insanity... I enjoy every single minute of it!"

  22. #22

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    It Depends...

    I noticed that Denver's 8th on the list; I assume that's an aggregate statistic for the urbanized Front Range. Looking around my neck of the woods [Centennial-Littleton] I'd say it's probably reflective of what we're experiencing.

    Unfortunately, we have the unique distinction of being 1st in the nation for residential foreclosures - an outcome of slow recovery of the tech and tele-comm major employers as well as an unregulated mortgage finance industry.

    The Denver Post had a excellent series a month ago about a subdivision which fell victim to some of the illicit practices of the mortgage brokers who pitch financing to those who can ill afford it.

    They're big subscribers to the "greater fool" theory...

  23. #23
    Cyburbian Linda_D's avatar
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    Here in WNY, where home prices are among the lowest in the country, prices around Buffalo and its suburbs have climbed modestly since 2001. In the Southern Tier, our prices have edged upwards a little, but I've noticed a lot of "For Sale" signs around. Mostly, though, these are smaller, older homes or multi-family units. Nice homes in desirable city neighborhoods or suburban areas, or anything out in the country, seem to sell quickly.

    The only real estate that might suffer from a "correction" is lakefront real estate because the prices of that have gone crazy in the last few years.

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