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Thread: Performing housing projections

  1. #1
    Cyburbian
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    St. Louis, MO
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    Performing housing projections

    Could someone help me with housing projections? I'm not sure how to go about creating projections based on 2000 census data to 2011. I've got population and house hold size projections. I need to derive total housing units, occupied units, and vacant units.

    Thanks.

  2. #2
    Cyburbian Cardinal's avatar
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    Do you have good trend data? Building permits issued by year? An idea of how much land is available for residential development in the project area?
    Anyone want to adopt a dog?

  3. #3
    Cyburbian
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    I have the housing starts for 2000-2006 (through April 2007). I'm not quite sure how to go about finding any units that may have been lost through conversion, demolition, disaster, etc. I do NOT have any data on available land for residential development.

  4. #4
    Cyburbian Wildono's avatar
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    The Census usually has numbers for demographics and occupancy status of housing units. Your state goverment may have up-to-date 'projection' numbers at the county and city level for these data needs too - through their budgeting department. For more detail, it seems like you'll need to acquire chronological building permit data as Cardinal suggests (certificates of occupancy) to answer the gain/loss from conversions, demos, disasters. The county tax assessor's office may be able to aid in determining use of specific parcels. A GIS would really, really, really help. I'd be surprised if your county's planning office couldn't assist in this effort.
    "That guy handles the puck like a cow handles a gun!" - Mike Lange

  5. #5
    Cyburbian Plan 9's avatar
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    You need to talk to your building and safety department. B&S also issues permits for demolition. It sounds like you have everything you need otherwise.

    An estimate is only an educated guess. (some more educated than others)

  6. #6
    Cyburbian Plus
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    Jun 2003
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    De Noc
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    Be care using Census population estimates -

    (Rant On)
    Their allocation modelling assigned a doubling of population to a township that we
    DO NOT issue any permits - it is river bottom lands (farming) that just happens to be in the floodway and floodplain.
    Another example is showing way to much population increase in another township
    that does not have water, sewer, or their own fire dept.
    (Rant Off)

    Carry on.
    Oddball
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    Why don't you dig how beautiful it is out here?
    Why don't you say something righteous and hopeful for a change?
    From Kelly's Heroes (1970)


    Are you sure you're not hurt ?
    No. Just some parts wake up faster than others.
    Broke parts take a little longer, though.
    From Electric Horseman (1979)

  7. #7
    Member
    Registered
    Jul 2007
    Location
    Orlando, FL
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    6

    buying the data?

    You can purchase that data from national sources such as ESRI or Claritas or whatever they are calling it these days. They have projections out for 2011 now. It may even go to 2012. If you don't want to buy it, you could probably contact them and inquire about their methodoly for making projections.

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