Development profit model?

[ams522002]

The tables have been turned. My planning office has been placed in charge of coming up with a development proposal for a vacant 250 acre parcel of county-owned land that is surrounded by residential development, county facilities, and a university (which of course is separated from the site by a divided limited-access highway). The charge is to create a model TND for this area to show local developers and financial institutions that TND can be a profitable venture. Does anyone know of a model (preferably in a spreadsheet) that provides basic profit/loss projections based on number of lots/units, infrastructure expenses, proposed sale prices, etc.? Any help would be appreciated. Thanks.

[Cardinal]

Basically, no. Development variable change so much from place to place that no model is going to be particularly good. That said, the HUD Clearinghouse has a couple financial pro forma spreadsheets for single-family development. You might also reference ULI's Development Handbook series (Multi-family, Residential, Mixed-Use, etc.) for some examples and good guidance.

[Luca]

Sounds interesting (sorry I can't help). Keep us apprised of progress pls?

[ams522002]

Thanks for the thoughts. We will check out HUD and ULI for information. I have put together a pro-forma based on a sample in a recent issue of the Planning Commissioner's Journal. I used numbers based on current costs from a street reconstruction project that provided costs per foot for sewer, water, gas, electric, street, storm sewer, etc. Based on this back of the envelope sketch, our conceptual design comes out on the positive side, but it is apparent how any slight change (costs, # of lots, time) can dramatically impact the bottom line both positively and negatively.

[Clore]

I wonder if you could use this model, or adapt the methodology. There is an online workbook which pulls up municipal tax data and you can tinker with the number of bedrooms, income, school children, etc. to see the financial impacts of a development. I use this a bit here in PA.
Here's the link: http://cax.aers.psu.edu/residentialimpact/