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Thread: Interruption of the world's oil supply scenario

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    Chairman of the bored Maister's avatar
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    Interruption of the world's oil supply scenario

    What do you think would happen if a major source of the world's oil supply was suddenly stopped? Say, if the Persian Gulf was closed off or if some fool(s) set off a bunch of surface nukes (longer lasting radioactivity) at a number of major oil reserve locations. How would the nations of the world respond? How would you respond personally?

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    Cyburbian DetroitPlanner's avatar
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    As a transportation planner I'd either be totally hosed or busy as heck.

    I could see myself busing it to work a lot more than I do now. I am about 8 miles from the office and have to travel through some pretty rough neighborhoods so biking might be a bit of an issue.

    My cabin would become an even larger albatross around my neck. Its in a fairly remote area.
    We hope for better things; it will arise from the ashes - Fr Gabriel Richard 1805

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    Chairman of the bored Maister's avatar
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    Quote Originally posted by DetroitPlanner View post
    My cabin would become an even larger albatross around my neck. Its in a fairly remote area.
    Depending on how widespread/bad the war is following the oil cutoff incident, a cabin in a remote area might actually be a godsend - you know, become a subsistence farmer out in the boonies living off the grid (although I guess most people in the world would be living off the grid sooner rather than later given the scenario).

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    Cyburbian Plus PlannerGirl's avatar
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    Sounds dooms day but I think full scale global warfare as the nations with might move to secure what they need

    The have nots would be seriously SOL
    "They who can give up essential liberty to obtain a little temporary safety, deserve neither liberty nor safety." Ben Franklin

    Remember this motto to live by: "Life should NOT be a journey to the grave with the intention of arriving safely in an attractive well preserved body, but rather to skid in sideways, chocolate in one hand, martini in the other, body thoroughly used up, totally worn out and screaming 'WOO- HOO what a ride!'"

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    Cyburbian Planit's avatar
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    Need to discuss the "working form the house" scenario with the bossman - or take the company car home. There is no opportunity for public transportation to and from my work.

    I see a very large issue with school buses as well. In our area many schools were built away from neighborhoods with no opportunity for kids to bike or walk. The big yellow metal boxes run all over the place. On eof Wee P's friends live less than 1/2 mile as the crows flies from her school. To walk however, it is at least 1.8 miles with no sidewalks and need to cross 4-lane highway.
    "Whatever beer I'm drinking, is better than the one I'm not." DMLW
    "Budweiser sells a product they reflectively insist on calling beer." John Oliver

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    Cyburbian Duke Of Dystopia's avatar
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    Quote Originally posted by Maister View post
    What do you think would happen if a major source of the world's oil supply was suddenly stopped? Say, if the Persian Gulf was closed off or if some fool(s) set off a bunch of surface nukes (longer lasting radioactivity) at a number of major oil reserve locations. How would the nations of the world respond? How would you respond personally?
    Regional Denial of Land Use by Nuclear Weapons for Production of Vital Materials.

    The long lasting radioactivity scenario against a region is of little danger even if it really were to happen. A nuclear weapon ground burst option is only effective if it is attempting to hit a hardened/buried target. A ground burst is limited in dispersion and time of lethal radiation denial. Therefore, terrorists would need an impossibly large number of nukes to make that scenario effective. There are much more effective methods than this I will not elucidate at present.
    I can't deliver UTOPIA, but I can create a HELL for you to LIVE in :)DoD:(

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    Chairman of the bored Maister's avatar
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    Quote Originally posted by Duke Of Dystopia View post
    There are much more effective methods than this I will not elucidate at present.
    Oh c'mon you know me, of course I'm trying to come up with whatever represents the most dire scenario possible. Let us assume for the purposes of this dicussion that whomever is trying to f- up the world is using one of those means that are not being elucidated upon. The underlying assumption of this scenario is that the world's oil supply would be suddenly and significantly reduced with no short term prospects of securing additional supplies of oil on the horizon.

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    Cyburbian Duke Of Dystopia's avatar
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    Quote Originally posted by Maister View post
    Oh c'mon you know me, of course I'm trying to come up with whatever represents the most dire scenario possible. Let us assume for the purposes of this dicussion that whomever is trying to f- up the world is using one of those means that are not being elucidated upon. The underlying assumption of this scenario is that the world's oil supply would be suddenly and significantly reduced with no short term prospects of securing additional supplies of oil on the horizon.
    Nukes are bright, big, flashy, and very scary, I am just saying they are WAY over rated by any standard, and that there are sneakier and cheaper ways to do worse damage.

    Oh, transportation of food goods to large cities could impose severe rationing if the interruption lasted for longer than a couple of weeks.
    I can't deliver UTOPIA, but I can create a HELL for you to LIVE in :)DoD:(

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    Cyburbian wahday's avatar
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    Personally, I think I would prefer to be in an urban setting for access to food and other essentials. Being in a remote cabin sounds good in some regards, but I realize also that it is really really hard to be entirely self-sufficient growing all your own food to meet all of your essential needs. There are still other things like clothing, soap, sugar, construction materials, tools, etc. that one needs to get from others and, if there really is limited oil/gas available, I think I would rather be less reliant on those resources to meet my basic needs. I also think that the proximity to others will help us find alternative solutions faster - more brains working on a problem means more dynamic and effective solutions (most of the time).
    The purpose of life is a life of purpose

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    Cyburbian CJC's avatar
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    I can't see any scenario where a large-scale prolonged interruption wouldn't lead to a third world war, most likely bigger than the last one. Nine of the world's ten nuclear powers don't have enough domestic oil to support domestic consumption. Russia (being the only nuclear power that does have enough oil for domestic use) would probably take advantage of the situation to reassert some power and influence.
    Two wrongs don't necessarily make a right, but three lefts do.

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    Cyburbian DetroitPlanner's avatar
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    Quote Originally posted by Maister View post
    Depending on how widespread/bad the war is following the oil cutoff incident, a cabin in a remote area might actually be a godsend - you know, become a subsistence farmer out in the boonies living off the grid (although I guess most people in the world would be living off the grid sooner rather than later given the scenario).
    Sorry, soil is too sandy, its in the woods, and the lot is too small for farming. Even if I farmed, the bears would just eat everything anyways.
    We hope for better things; it will arise from the ashes - Fr Gabriel Richard 1805

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    Cyburbian Duke Of Dystopia's avatar
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    If it happens in early spring, the subsistence vegetable garden could work really well. If the crisis happens in late summer or fall, it will not allow subsistence farming for 6 months. the fall scenario is the worst.

    Subsistence farming is not likely to work anyway. When those hungry people in the cities, start to raid into the hinterlands for food, there will be way to many to stop them from taking what they want.

    Your average American city, population 100k and up, is usually only 3-5 days away from starvation. If the food distribution system brakes down (no fuel for commerce), only the government will have the resources to shuffle food around. Can you see the nightly news when food shipments in the form of convoys are attacked in the US?

    (I have a love for dooms day scenarios! )

    I think society will become VERY polite REALLY quick. Think California freeways after a few freeway road rage shootings.

    Air quality will rapidly improve.

    Water quality will not. How many Americans understand that power outages will require privies and group privies to be constructed in order to prevent mass outbreaks of cholera and other water born pathogens. When the power browns out, so wont the possibility of keeping safe drinking water in the lines.

    Make sure you have friends with established hop vines and yeast cultures for safe drinking material. The hops is optional. Pine or heather can be substituted. May not be good but at least it will be safe to drink.

    Check out the following! Good non nuclear fallout civil defense information.



    Original Edition Published September, 1979,
    by Oak Ridge National Laboratory,
    a Facility of the
    U.S. Department of Energy

    Published by the

    Oregon Institute of Science and Medicine

    Cave Junction, Oregon
    Updated (Third printing September 1990)
    http://www.oism.org/nwss/
    I can't deliver UTOPIA, but I can create a HELL for you to LIVE in :)DoD:(

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