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Poll results: Where will the Dow be on October 29?

Voters
54. You may not vote on this poll
  • over 12000

    0 0%
  • 11000 to 12000

    0 0%
  • 10500 to 11000

    2 3.70%
  • 10000 to 10500

    4 7.41%
  • 9500 to 10000

    4 7.41%
  • 9000 to 9500

    8 14.81%
  • 8500 to 9000

    9 16.67%
  • 8000 to 8500

    10 18.52%
  • 7500 to 8000

    6 11.11%
  • 7000 to 7500

    7 12.96%
  • 6000 to 7000

    3 5.56%
  • under 6000

    1 1.85%
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Thread: Where will the Dow be on October 29th?

  1. #1
    Cyburbian Cardinal's avatar
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    Where will the Dow be on October 29th?

    OK, so how about some fun. Let's predict how the stock market will perform for the near future. When? Oh... why not make it October 29. No particular reason.

    It is about 9200 right now, down from over 14000 a year ago this day.
    Anyone want to adopt a dog?

  2. #2
    Cyburbian CJC's avatar
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    I expect pretty choppy trading until then, with a slight downtrend. 8645.23 is my call
    Two wrongs don't necessarily make a right, but three lefts do.

  3. #3
    Cyburbian Plan-it's avatar
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    Ups and downs galore until we get out of this mess. It will be about the same as it is now, but the trend lines will look like roller coasters.
    Satellite City Enabler

  4. #4
    Cyburbian btrage's avatar
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    Optimist Hat On

    I'll say 10,294.84.

  5. #5
    Cyburbian Planit's avatar
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    Let's just say I think I'll throw some money in at 8500. As far as Oct. 29th is concerned 8700. I think after Nov. 4th there will be more significant fluctuations.
    "Whatever beer I'm drinking, is better than the one I'm not." DMLW
    "Budweiser sells a product they reflectively insist on calling beer." John Oliver

  6. #6
    Cyburbian DetroitPlanner's avatar
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    I'm an optimist. I think it will be about the same.
    We hope for better things; it will arise from the ashes - Fr Gabriel Richard 1805

  7. #7
    Cyburbian zman's avatar
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    7834.56

    That is what it will be.
    You get all squeezed up inside/Like the days were carved in stone/You get all wired up inside/And it's bad to be alone

    You can go out, you can take a ride/And when you get out on your own/You get all smoothed out inside/And it's good to be alone
    -Peart

  8. #8
    Cyburbian joshking2's avatar
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    8012 +/- 10 points

  9. #9
    Cyburbian WSU MUP Student's avatar
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    I asked my computer for a random series of numbers between 8000 and 12000 and the brain inside the box has determined that the NYSE will close at 9,382 on 29 October 2008.
    "Where free unions and collective bargaining are forbidden, freedom is lost." - 1980 Republican presidential candidate Ronald Reagan

  10. #10
    Cyburbian jsk1983's avatar
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    I put 8500-9000. Of course the stock market doesn't always perform logically so these things are difficult to guess.

  11. #11
    Super Moderator luckless pedestrian's avatar
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    you forgot:

    what is this Dow of which you speak?

  12. #12
    Gunfighter Mastiff's avatar
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    Quote Originally posted by luckless pedestrian View post
    you forgot:




    You also forgot "In the Toilet"
    -----------------------------------------------------------------
    C'mon and get me you twist of fate
    I'm standing right here Mr. Destiny
    If you want to talk well then I'll relate
    If you don't so what cause you don't scare me

  13. #13
    Cyburbian Plus
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    AIB and for luckless pedestrian

    When Black Friday Comes
    http://www.reformer.com/vermontobserver/ci_10609924
    Oddball
    Why don't you knock it off with them negative waves?
    Why don't you dig how beautiful it is out here?
    Why don't you say something righteous and hopeful for a change?
    From Kelly's Heroes (1970)


    Are you sure you're not hurt ?
    No. Just some parts wake up faster than others.
    Broke parts take a little longer, though.
    From Electric Horseman (1979)

  14. #14
    Super Moderator luckless pedestrian's avatar
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    Gonna strike all the big red words from my little black book

    of course none other than Becker/Fagen would get off on the skeeviness of a Wall Street downturn...

    When Black Friday comes I'm gonna stake my claim
    I guess I'll change my name

  15. #15
    Cyburbian Queen B's avatar
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    I don't think the worst has happened yet. I say 7250.
    It is all a matter of perspective!!!

  16. #16
    OH....IO Hink's avatar
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    8742 +/- 7 points. If you take the factorial of pi, and divide it by the percentage of people dropping out of the market, and add the rate at which people are buying precious metals you get 8742 with one standard deviation of 7 points.

    It is so simple.
    A common mistake people make when trying to design something completely foolproof is to underestimate the ingenuity of complete fools. -Douglas Adams

  17. #17
    Cyburbian CJC's avatar
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    Quote Originally posted by Hink_Planner View post
    8742 +/- 7 points. If you take the factorial of pi, and divide it by the percentage of people dropping out of the market, and add the rate at which people are buying precious metals you get 8742 with one standard deviation of 7 points.

    It is so simple.
    Well, the reason that your number is different from mine is that you forget to account for climate change. If you cube the average change in temps over the last ten years and divide by 7 (the number of deadly sins), then multiply it by your number, you come up with my number.

    Simple indeed

    We just dropped below 8900 a few minutes ago
    Two wrongs don't necessarily make a right, but three lefts do.

  18. #18
    Cyburbian Duke Of Dystopia's avatar
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    It will be between 7,000 and 7,500.

    Why?

    The election will not be over until early November, so the money does not know where to go. This means an unsettled economy!
    I can't deliver UTOPIA, but I can create a HELL for you to LIVE in :)DoD:(

  19. #19
    Cyburbian Cardinal's avatar
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    Of course, for those of you who are wondering the significance of October 29th... there is none. What I meant to type was October 19th.
    Anyone want to adopt a dog?

  20. #20
    Cyburbian ofos's avatar
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    Quote Originally posted by Hink_Planner View post
    8742 +/- 7 points. If you take the factorial of pi, and divide it by the percentage of people dropping out of the market, and add the rate at which people are buying precious metals you get 8742 with one standard deviation of 7 points.

    It is so simple.
    I'm quite a bit more optimistic and think we'll be back up about 1000 points higher than that at 9742 +/- 7 pints. Mine was based on the factorial of pie, divided by the the percentage of people shopping out of Whole Foods Market adding the rate at which people are becoming precociously mental resulting in 9742 with one Cyburbian deviant of 7 pints
    “Death comes when memories of the past exceed the vision for the future.”

  21. #21
    Cyburbian Plus PlannerGirl's avatar
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    7700 just because I think we have not yet begun to see pain
    "They who can give up essential liberty to obtain a little temporary safety, deserve neither liberty nor safety." Ben Franklin

    Remember this motto to live by: "Life should NOT be a journey to the grave with the intention of arriving safely in an attractive well preserved body, but rather to skid in sideways, chocolate in one hand, martini in the other, body thoroughly used up, totally worn out and screaming 'WOO- HOO what a ride!'"

  22. #22
    Cyburbia Administrator Dan's avatar
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    Waiting on hold forever (something I shouldn't be doing on Yom Kippur) to cash out one of my deferred comp accounts. I need the money for a pending move; apartment deposits and whatnot. It's losing hundreds every day, and since I got laid off there's been no contributions, so I have no choice.

    Dow on October 29: 7250
    Average national price for a gallon of gas then: $2.40

    I don't think this won't be a depression, but it will be a 1970s-style recession, with near double-digit unemployment.
    Growth for growth's sake is the ideology of the cancer cell. -- Edward Abbey

  23. #23
    Cyburbian boiker's avatar
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    Quote Originally posted by Duke Of Dystopia View post
    It will be between 7,000 and 7,500.

    Why?

    The election will not be over until early November, so the money does not know where to go. This means an unsettled economy!
    Based on what I'm seeing, the money won't know where to go after the election either.

    One things for sure, shedding 40% of the market's value in 12 months isn't exactly a sign of a healthy, fundamentally strong economy.
    Dude, I'm cheesing so hard right now.

  24. #24
    Super Moderator kjel's avatar
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    I think it will level out around the 9,000 mark.
    "He defended the cause of the poor and needy, and so all went well. Is that not what it means to know me?" Jeremiah 22:16

  25. #25
    Cyburbian
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    I would say below 7,000, dragged down by fears overseas and a stock market crash here sometime in late 2008 early 2009. An election may restore some degree of confidence (but not as much as predicted earlier this year). However, it will take a while for the new administration to get settled.

    It will take the rest of 2009 for the stock market to slowly stablize. However, it will take a few years for the DOW/NASDEQ/NYSE to reach its pre-2007 increases (now with a higher degree of regulation). Unfortunately, it will be very difficult for investors to recoup their losses.

    I partly agree with Dan's view on double-digit unemployment. There are billions (if not trillions) of dollars waiting on the sidelines in un-tapped capital. However, lending is non-existent right now (I heard something along these lines at the Illinois Municipal League conference in Chicago a few weeks ago). As the market improves and banks start lending money, this will release more capital back into the economy.

    I also predict the SEC will dissolve into the Federal Reserve (Cox even admitted it a week or two ago). Unfortunately, derivatives will be highly regulated either under the Federal Reserve or the Commodity Futures Trading Commission, something Greenspan, Rubin, and lawmakers on both sides of the aisle fought agressively against during the bull market in the 1990s.

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