Urban planning community

Poll results: Where will the Dow be on October 29?

Voters
54. You may not vote on this poll
  • over 12000

    0 0%
  • 11000 to 12000

    0 0%
  • 10500 to 11000

    2 3.70%
  • 10000 to 10500

    4 7.41%
  • 9500 to 10000

    4 7.41%
  • 9000 to 9500

    8 14.81%
  • 8500 to 9000

    9 16.67%
  • 8000 to 8500

    10 18.52%
  • 7500 to 8000

    6 11.11%
  • 7000 to 7500

    7 12.96%
  • 6000 to 7000

    3 5.56%
  • under 6000

    1 1.85%
+ Reply to thread
Page 2 of 3 FirstFirst 1 2 3 LastLast
Results 26 to 50 of 51

Thread: Where will the Dow be on October 29th?

  1. #26
    Cyburbian illinoisplanner's avatar
    Registered
    May 2005
    Location
    The Fox Valley
    Posts
    4,735
    Blog entries
    1
    I'm going to guess 7,889.52. I hear it's expected to bottom out at 7,000...it's likely to not go below that, at least not anytime soon.

    Quote Originally posted by Cardinal View post
    Of course, for those of you who are wondering the significance of October 29th... there is none. What I meant to type was October 19th.
    Yes there is. October 29 (Black Tuesday) was the final nail in the coffin back in 1929.
    "Life's a journey, not a destination"
    -Steven Tyler

  2. #27
    Cyburbian CJC's avatar
    Registered
    Feb 2007
    Location
    San Francisco, CA
    Posts
    1,689
    Quote Originally posted by illinoisplanner View post
    I'm going to guess 7,889.52. I hear it's expected to bottom out at 7,000...it's likely to not go below that, at least not anytime soon.
    I would say that if you feel that sure about it, you should be selling some puts at the 7000 level
    Two wrongs don't necessarily make a right, but three lefts do.

  3. #28
    Cyburbian rcgplanner's avatar
    Registered
    Aug 2007
    Location
    Back in SE Texas
    Posts
    1,674
    After another near 700-point drop today, I would not be suprised if the market bottoms out around 7,000. By October 29, I would say in the neighborhood of 7700, I keep hoping that we will see the bottom soon, but it seems like every idea the gov't throws out there the market digests it for a few hours, but eventually doesn't like the idea and the market gets pounded.

    I am not convinced that we will see depression-era pain, but things are going to be rough. I agree with Dan, double-digit unemployment may be on the horizon. Things are even getting tough in the sunbelt, I heard today that the city of Charlotte, NC has instituted a hiring freeze. This is in the city that was one of the few in the US that actually saw an increase in home prices (granted a feeble increase) over the last 12 months.

  4. #29
    Cyburbian wahday's avatar
    Registered
    May 2005
    Location
    New Town
    Posts
    3,859
    Quote Originally posted by boiker View post
    Based on what I'm seeing, the money won't know where to go after the election either.
    You may indeed be right. "Conventional wisdom" seems to have taken a drunken vacation of late. My personal opinion, though, is that if Obama wins, you will see at least a modest amount of confidence return to the market. Democrats are historically more trusted with economic affairs. Also, the economy often responds well post-election. The big question to me in this is whether investors at that point will believe that the US government has any ability to positively impact things.

    About a year ago, I was advised to consider refinancing my (ARM) mortgage after the election because interest rates often drop. Thank frickin' G_d I didn't listen to THAT sage advice! Refinanced about 5 months ago - right in the nick of time (wipes sweat from brow)
    The purpose of life is a life of purpose

  5. #30
    Cyburbian Fat Cat's avatar
    Registered
    Nov 2006
    Location
    Rockwood, MI
    Posts
    1,420

    Fat Cat

    Bill Seidman had some interesting comments today
    I am going with 7500
    Didnt sound like the silent hand theory to me
    Probably as good as anything right now

    Oh well only two days and "Trick or Treat"

  6. #31
    Cyburbian Emeritus Bear Up North's avatar
    Registered
    May 2003
    Location
    Northwestern Ohio
    Posts
    9,327

    10,155

    Sure-fire prediction from this Bear.....

    10,155.00

    Reasons include love stinks, it hurts to be in love, ride my see-saw, the parrot is dead, road trip, wild and crazy guys, I can see Russia from my porch, we make the boats very strong in Germany....no, Hans?, land shark, candy gram, billy the mountain, eve of destruction / tax deduction, no sugar tonight, who put the bomp in the bomp?, brother love, sister hazel, and general dynamics.

    My data is probably just as logical as all the rest.

    Leroy boy, we gotta get you a woman. Cherry pie.

    Bear

    Occupy Cyburbia!

  7. #32
    Cyburbian safege's avatar
    Registered
    Jul 2005
    Location
    Golden Valley MN
    Posts
    713
    10,666.

    The devil made me say it.
    Psychotics are consistently inconsistent. The essence of sanity is to be inconsistently inconsistent.
    -Larry Wall

  8. #33
    Cyburbian Cardinal's avatar
    Registered
    Aug 2001
    Location
    The Cheese State
    Posts
    9,953
    Quote Originally posted by illinoisplanner View post
    I'm going to guess 7,889.52. I hear it's expected to bottom out at 7,000...it's likely to not go below that, at least not anytime soon.



    Yes there is. October 29 (Black Tuesday) was the final nail in the coffin back in 1929.
    October appears to be a bad month for the stock market. October 19, 1987 is the largest percentage drop in history.
    Anyone want to adopt a dog?

  9. #34
    Cyburbia Administrator Dan's avatar
    Registered
    Mar 1996
    Location
    Upstate New York
    Posts
    14,573
    Blog entries
    3
    I'm watching the DDJIA drop before my very eyes. Turned on the TV, and it was 70 points down. 10 minutes later, and it's 195 points down. The counter on CNN is literally dropping a point every few seconds.

    Okay, now it's 239 points down. 8340.

    Edit a second later: 250 down.
    Growth for growth's sake is the ideology of the cancer cell. -- Edward Abbey

  10. #35
    Chairman of the bored Maister's avatar
    Registered
    Feb 2004
    Location
    on my 15 minute break
    Posts
    18,075
    This is one of the most interesting polls we've had in a while. The results so far record almost a classic bell curve on the optimism scale!

  11. #36
    Cyburbian ofos's avatar
    Registered
    Jul 2006
    Location
    Slightly Off-Center
    Posts
    8,259
    Quote Originally posted by Maister View post
    This is one of the most interesting polls we've had in a while. The results so far record almost a classic bell curve on the optimism scale!
    It's still a very limited sample but it would be interesting to see how the responses related to the market conditions at the time in which they were submitted. That may be having a smoothing effect on the curve.
    “Death comes when memories of the past exceed the vision for the future.”

  12. #37
    Cyburbian imaplanner's avatar
    Registered
    May 2004
    Location
    Snarkville
    Posts
    6,591
    well since its already about 8000, I'm going to take an uneducated guess at 6000.

    If I had any money to burn I would be starting to consider buying up some stocks soon.

  13. #38
    Cyburbian TexanOkie's avatar
    Registered
    Jun 2007
    Location
    Oklahoma City
    Posts
    2,904
    Quote Originally posted by Duke Of Dystopia View post
    It will be between 7,000 and 7,500.

    Why?

    The election will not be over until early November, so the money does not know where to go. This means an unsettled economy!
    Duke's right. Investors don't know what the new rules will be until after the election, perhaps even after the first few weeks of the next administration. Until then, market volatility will be sky high.

  14. #39
    Cyburbian CJC's avatar
    Registered
    Feb 2007
    Location
    San Francisco, CA
    Posts
    1,689
    Quote Originally posted by TexanOkie View post
    Duke's right. Investors don't know what the new rules will be until after the election, perhaps even after the first few weeks of the next administration. Until then, market volatility will be sky high.
    I'd take it a step further than that - the crisis has fully engulfed the world now. Investors aren't just looking at what the next administration will do domestically, but also what relations will be like with the rest of the world and what the rest of the world will do as far as market intervention.
    Two wrongs don't necessarily make a right, but three lefts do.

  15. #40
    5,728....................

  16. #41
    Cyburbian Tide's avatar
    Registered
    Oct 2005
    Location
    The Gig City
    Posts
    2,655
    It will drop below 7,000 and then come back up to hmm...... 7,473 on October 29.

    This is getting ugly.

  17. #42
    Cyburbian CJC's avatar
    Registered
    Feb 2007
    Location
    San Francisco, CA
    Posts
    1,689
    Holy hell, more than a 1000 point range today.
    Two wrongs don't necessarily make a right, but three lefts do.

  18. #43
    Cyburbian Brocktoon's avatar
    Registered
    Apr 2006
    Location
    Promoting synergies...
    Posts
    3,558
    Quote Originally posted by Cardinal View post
    October appears to be a bad month for the stock market. October 19, 1987 is the largest percentage drop in history.
    Historically speaking October is the worst months for stocks...also historically presidential election years tend to be positive for the markets.

    My guess is around 8500...I think the market has found a support level but be prepared for "Mr. Toads Wild Ride."
    "If you don't like change, you're going to like irrelevance even less" General Eric Shinseki

  19. #44
    Cyburbian gicarto's avatar
    Registered
    Mar 2005
    Location
    Jeffstantinople
    Posts
    267
    Quote Originally posted by Cardinal View post
    Of course, for those of you who are wondering the significance of October 29th... there is none. What I meant to type was October 19th.
    It was October 29, 1929 (Black Tuesday). Worst Stock Market Crash up to this point. I predict a significant downturn which will last about 5 years. There is one advantage in our situation today. After the crash of 1929, there was not a presidential election for another 3 years allowing Herbert Hoover to ruin the economy furthur. We have a presidential election soon and reform can happen quicker if Americans make the right choice . I hope the market recovers quicker than 5 years because I am worried about my retired parents.
    Trying to get my grubby hands on as much stimulus money as I can.:D

  20. #45
    Cyburbian donk's avatar
    Registered
    Sep 2001
    Location
    skating on thin ice
    Posts
    6,958
    I have lost nearly 1/3 of my net worth in the past month. There goes buying a house next year

    \As for my guess I am going to guess around 8000. The UK actions that are going on right now will help a bit..... I also agree that things won't balance out until after the US election. i also predict the TSX will rise this week based on the results of our election.
    Too lazy to beat myself up for being to lazy to beat myself up for being too lazy to... well you get the point....

  21. #46
    Cyburbian Emeritus Bear Up North's avatar
    Registered
    May 2003
    Location
    Northwestern Ohio
    Posts
    9,327

    Cancel The Jump

    Today the Dow jumped about 1000 points. Biggest jump in history. Cancel the jump. Sell the gun. Stash the rope. Open the garage door. Flush the pills.

    Realistically, not unexpected. The truth will tell out in the next few weeks, to see if the different proposals and monetary policy changes (worldwide) will have a lasting effect.

    Bear
    Occupy Cyburbia!

  22. #47
    Cyburbian beach_bum's avatar
    Registered
    Jul 2007
    Location
    the old north state
    Posts
    2,797
    So the fed cut rates and the stock market closed at 8990.96
    "Never invest in any idea you can't illustrate with a crayon." ~Peter Lynch

  23. #48
    Cyburbian abrowne's avatar
    Registered
    Jan 2005
    Location
    BC
    Posts
    1,584
    Nice! Nailed it, I did. And by nailed it, I mean guessed successfully using a 500-pt increment.

  24. #49
    Cyburbian jsk1983's avatar
    Registered
    Feb 2004
    Location
    Chicago, IL
    Posts
    2,091
    I too picked the correct increment. I think I think I was thinking something a little lower w/in 8500-9000, but nonetheless close.

  25. #50
    Cyburbian CJC's avatar
    Registered
    Feb 2007
    Location
    San Francisco, CA
    Posts
    1,689
    Quote Originally posted by CJC View post
    I expect pretty choppy trading until then, with a slight downtrend. 8645.23 is my call
    About 350 points off on my to-the-penny call, but I was also in the right 500 point range
    Two wrongs don't necessarily make a right, but three lefts do.

+ Reply to thread
Page 2 of 3 FirstFirst 1 2 3 LastLast

More at Cyburbia

  1. October pledge drive
    Friday Afternoon Club
    Replies: 12
    Last post: 17 Oct 2011, 6:16 PM
  2. Texas APA Conference in October
    Friday Afternoon Club
    Replies: 13
    Last post: 14 Nov 2007, 11:52 PM
  3. Milwaukee October 2007
    Cities and Places
    Replies: 9
    Last post: 09 Nov 2007, 6:07 PM
  4. October 10, 2005 Question from ZG
    Friday Afternoon Club
    Replies: 17
    Last post: 11 Oct 2005, 2:19 PM
  5. October 14 Caption Contest
    Friday Afternoon Club
    Replies: 8
    Last post: 14 Oct 2003, 10:04 PM