Other areas are expected to decline, though, including median home prices (for the county as a whole, as individual cities vary), real median family incomes and real taxable sales, an unwelcome development for local governments that depend on a healthy stream of sales tax revenue.
As well, UCSB economists predict the county’s unemployment rate will peak at 7 percent in 2009, a level not seen here in 14 years.
The unemployment rate in November — the latest figure available from the state’s Employment Development Department — was 6.6 percent, up from 4.4 percent the same month a year ago.
Lesh fears that the troubles in Sacramento will exacerbate unemployment in the county, which has a heavy concentration of government jobs.
“Our big concern for San Luis Obispo County going forward is potentially large layoffs in government,’’ he said. “If it’s just a job freeze, that would be nice, but we have concerns that it will be a job reversal.”