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Thread: Early 2010 USCensus estimate Congressional projections

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    Cyburbian mgk920's avatar
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    Early 2010 USCensus estimate Congressional projections

    As most of you know, the USA conducts a full headcount every ten years in order to fairly apportion the seats of the US House of Representatives, as well as the seats in all of the other legislative bodies at all levels except for the USSenate (each state gets two seats).

    The early estimates of what the Census Bureau will find include big gains for several traditionally politically 'red' states and more losses for the 'blue' ones.

    see:
    http://www.npr.org/blogs/politicalju..._affected.html
    for an interesting discussion on this.

    In that article, Texas is expected to gain 4 seats, going from 32 up to 36 seats, Arizona will gain 2 (going up to 10 seats) with Florida, Georgia, Nevada, Oregon, South Carolina and Utah all gaining one (which kind of blows away the 'compromise' being pushed by those favoring the current proposal to give the DC delegate a full floor vote - and the article makes no mention of what state's seat would be 'on the bubble' this time).

    The big losses would be mostly in traditionally politically 'blue' states and in states in the midwest with Ohio losing two seats (going down to 16 seats) and Illinois, Iowa, Louisiana, Massachusetts, Michigan, Minnesota, Missouri, New Jersey, New York and Pennsylvania all losing one.

    As in 2000, California stays stable at 53 seats.

    There are also some good comments in that NPR link.

    Mike

  2. #2
    Cyburbian DetroitPlanner's avatar
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    Michigan is only losing one seat??? I would be willing to bet on two.
    We hope for better things; it will arise from the ashes - Fr Gabriel Richard 1805

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    Cyburbian mgk920's avatar
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    (fixed link)



    Oops, the article link didn't copy correctly, here's a corrected working version:

    http://www.npr.org/blogs/politicalju..._affected.html

    Mike

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    Cyburbian Duke Of Dystopia's avatar
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    Also good news, those states gaining seats, will become purple, and not stay red. Arizona would likely have gone blue in the last election if McCain hadn't been running for president. In fact, he had to actually defend Arizona. So while blue states might loose seats, the Dem party could actually gain in reach and power due to party migration diluting the power of red districts.

    All very good news!
    I can't deliver UTOPIA, but I can create a HELL for you to LIVE in :)DoD:(

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    moderator in moderation Suburb Repairman's avatar
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    Quote Originally posted by Duke Of Dystopia View post
    Also good news, those states gaining seats, will become purple, and not stay red. Arizona would likely have gone blue in the last election if McCain hadn't been running for president. In fact, he had to actually defend Arizona. So while blue states might loose seats, the Dem party could actually gain in reach and power due to party migration diluting the power of red districts.

    All very good news!
    That is an important point about what the effect of these red states getting additional seats really is. Texas, despite its bright red label, has about as purple of a State House of Representatives as you can get, with 76 Republicans and 74 Democrats. They just gave the highly partisan house speaker the heave-ho for a more moderate Republican.

    When folks move, they often take their politics with them. Also, Ohio and Michigan, along with some of the other "losing" states have not been blue, but rather swing states that were fairly unpredictable.

    "Oh, that is all well and good, but, voice or no voice, the people can always be brought to the bidding of the leaders. That is easy. All you have to do is tell them they are being attacked and denounce the pacifists for lack of patriotism and exposing the country to danger. It works the same way in any country."

    - Herman Göring at the Nuremburg trials (thoughts on democracy)

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    Cyburbian TexanOkie's avatar
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    Quote Originally posted by Suburb Repairman View post
    That is an important point about what the effect of these red states getting additional seats really is. Texas, despite its bright red label, has about as purple of a State House of Representatives as you can get, with 76 Republicans and 74 Democrats. They just gave the highly partisan house speaker the heave-ho for a more moderate Republican.

    When folks move, they often take their politics with them. Also, Ohio and Michigan, along with some of the other "losing" states have not been blue, but rather swing states that were fairly unpredictable.
    Even before the mass migration into red states, however, especially in the central US, local and state politics wasn't even closely aligned with the way the states voted in national elections. Oklahoma -- possibly the reddest state in the nation for quite some time, and the only state where Barack Obama did not win even one county in the last election -- only this past election voted in it's first Republican-controlled state legislature into office, and Democrats still control most of the higher administrative offices. Similar patterns can be seen throughout "flyover country" and the Southeast.

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    Cyburbian Brocktoon's avatar
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    I figured North Carolina and Tennessee would gain a seat in 2010. South Carolina picking up a vote is also suprising. I agree with DP that I think Michigan will lose 2 seats in the electoral college.
    "If you don't like change, you're going to like irrelevance even less" General Eric Shinseki

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    Cyburbian jmello's avatar
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    Quote Originally posted by mgk920 View post
    Arizona will gain 2 (going up to 10 seats) ...
    I am going to go out on a limb here and say that AZ will only gain one, due to the foreclosure crisis and the recent immigrant crackdown. The other seat will go to NC which is one of the fastest growing states in the nation. I wouldn't be surprised if FL did not get an additional seat either.

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    Cyburbian Linda_D's avatar
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    Quote Originally posted by jmello View post
    I am going to go out on a limb here and say that AZ will only gain one, due to the foreclosure crisis and the recent immigrant crackdown. The other seat will go to NC which is one of the fastest growing states in the nation. I wouldn't be surprised if FL did not get an additional seat either.
    I think that the economy may very well come into play by the 2010 count (which is about a year away ... I think April, 2010), especially in the states where the housing bubble has had the most impact, those with the highest unemployment, and states attractive to retirees. Large clusters of foreclosed homes without tenants will cost many districts representatives in county and state legislatures as well as possibly in Congressional districts. The unemployed may move away, but where? Many of the usually attractive areas are suffering from high unemployment, too. How many will opt to move back in with Mom and Dad? Many would-be retirees may have to revise their plans and work longer, meaning that they will stay where they currently are. Even taking an extra 60 days to sell a current home could mean a retiree is counted in a different state on the census.

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    Cyburbian beach_bum's avatar
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    I second that, NC will probably gain one and Florida will not gain the one. Many people I know are moving away from Florida because of the high unemployment and housing foreclosure issues.
    "Never invest in any idea you can't illustrate with a crayon." ~Peter Lynch

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    Cyburbian Raf's avatar
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    As with florida, i think california will not stay the same. As a matter of fact i think it might loose a seat due to the high foreclosure rate and the 3rd highest unemployment in the country with no end in sight. It's a mess and we can stand to loose people.
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    Cyburbian illinoisplanner's avatar
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    I hear a lot of talk about people moving away because of foreclosures, etc. But you folks gotta remember this is a change in population from 2000, not 2005. There was a huge population boom in many of those states that carried over from the 90s, and I don't think the amount of people leaving certain states over the past couple of years has eclipsed the explosive population gains seen in the first half of the decade in those states. Thus, I think CA will probably stay the same. FL may gain about one. I also think that NC could gain.
    "Life's a journey, not a destination"
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  13. #13
    Cyburbian CJC's avatar
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    A lot will also depend on any changes in priorities or staffing levels for the census in certain urban areas. Urban counts and challenges were all over the board in '80, '90, and '00. I'm not convinced of what effect this could have at the state level, but putting more emphasis on getting the urban counts right in the first place could have some major effects on funding for some cities.
    Two wrongs don't necessarily make a right, but three lefts do.

  14. #14
    Cyburbian Plan-it's avatar
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    Alabama is projected to lose 1 seat as well. They have not gained population like many of the other areas in the south and some prject that they actually lost people as they move to nearby job centers with better opportunities.

    I wonder how Florida will be impacted. They seem to have large numbers of in-migrants and large numbers of out-migrants. it will be interesting.
    Satellite City Enabler

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    Cyburbian Brocktoon's avatar
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    Quote Originally posted by jmello View post
    I am going to go out on a limb here and say that AZ will only gain one, due to the foreclosure crisis and the recent immigrant crackdown. The other seat will go to NC which is one of the fastest growing states in the nation. I wouldn't be surprised if FL did not get an additional seat either.

    I would check you math. IP is correct in that the 2010 census looks back to 2000 for its population and seat adjustments. AZ has added 1.6 million people since 2000; NC just over 1 million and CA has added 3 million people since 2000.

    AZ is still growing, even with the foreclosures...in 2008 it was the second fastest growing state...just ahead of NC and just behind UT. The immigrant crackdown impact is debatable and the population it is targeting don't tend to those that complete their census form.
    "If you don't like change, you're going to like irrelevance even less" General Eric Shinseki

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    Cyburbian jmello's avatar
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    Quote Originally posted by Brocktoon View post
    I would check you math.
    What math? I wasn't posing a scientific hypotheses, merely stating an opinion.

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