The First 2012 Presidential Election Thread

[ursus]

Can somone explain to me exactly why Gingrich is still in the race? Romney, Santorum and Paul, I get why they're still running.

I heard some theory that he thinks he can be a "Kingmaker" at the convention if it goes all the way, and though he can't be the nominee he can "give" his delegate count to someone more deserving in his eyes than Romney.

That's one theory. Also there's more than a small possibility that he's just one of the most stubborn, crazy a**hats that ever lived.

[ofos]

Can somone explain to me exactly why Gingrich is still in the race? Romney, Santorum and Paul, I get why they're still running.

Newtism is all about maximum public exposure.

[Zoning Goddess]

Romney, once again,shows he has no clue about how he appears to the rest of us. Yes, developing a $12 million estate:

http://abcnews.go.com/blogs/politics...ornia-retreat/

Is he nuts or what?

[Hink]

Newt fires 1/3 of his staff and his campaign manager.... just quit already.


----------------

Also, Romney is worth over $250 million. So really the house value to assets number isn't that great... 5%... if you are more normal at 65 and worth $400k (assets, retirement, etc.) you spend much more than that on a home...probably around 50%.... just saying.

[Bubba]

Newtism is all about maximum public exposure.

Yup - Snoop Newty Newt is really just on his 2012 Book Tour...

[Hink]

So we enter April and Newt, Santorum, Paul, and Romney are still in... how long will this last? Romney is the nominee and it looks like he might pick an Ohioan for his VP...

http://www.theatlantic.com/politics/...ominee/255515/


I think a Romney/Portman ticket will be interesting. Both are boring, rich white guys.

Positives:
-Portman has been pretty solid as a fiscal conservative, which helps Romney.
-He has supported a balanced budget amendment since 1994.
-He is for limiting frivolous lawsuits, tort reform, and limiting legal fees associated with medical malpractice
-Portman voted for the Ryan budget, which at least shows he is interested in lowering the debt...albeit in a not very reasonable way.
-He is a member of the sportsman caucus and not the tea party. Both are good things in my mind.

Negatives:
-He was the Office of Management and Budget Director under Bush when the ballooning debt was starting to get worse though.
-Pro-Life who doesn't support stem cell research
-Is against equal rights for Gay Americans (marriage, civil unions, adoption, etc.)
-Against raising CAFE standards or looking at alternative fuels
-The biggest knock on Portman to me is that he graduated from Michigan... I mean really, you want to be a politician in Ohio and you go to Michigan....

General:
-Against Privatizing Social Security
-Voted for the Bush Tax Cuts

[Blide]

That seems like that would be a safe pick for VP but he's not going to excite anyone. He seems like he wouldn't really help or hurt Romney unlike Ryan or Rubio. Though I'm not even sure he'd be enough to win Ohio considering how much Kasich has divided the state.

[ofos]

-The biggest knock on Portman to me is that he graduated from Michigan... I mean really, you want to be a politician in Ohio and you go to Michigan....

Probably raised the average IQ of both states when he moved back to Ohio.

[Whose Yur Planner]

I think he will go after Rubio in an effort to mend fences and get the Florida vote.

[mgk920]

So we enter April and Newt, Santorum, Paul, and Romney are still in... how long will this last? Romney is the nominee and it looks like he might pick an Ohioan for his VP...

http://www.theatlantic.com/politics/...ominee/255515/


I think a Romney/Portman ticket will be interesting. Both are boring, rich white guys.

Positives:
-Portman has been pretty solid as a fiscal conservative, which helps Romney.
-He has supported a balanced budget amendment since 1994.
-He is for limiting frivolous lawsuits, tort reform, and limiting legal fees associated with medical malpractice
-Portman voted for the Ryan budget, which at least shows he is interested in lowering the debt...albeit in a not very reasonable way.
-He is a member of the sportsman caucus and not the tea party. Both are good things in my mind.

Negatives:
-He was the Office of Management and Budget Director under Bush when the ballooning debt was starting to get worse though.
-Pro-Life who doesn't support stem cell research
-Is against equal rights for Gay Americans (marriage, civil unions, adoption, etc.)
-Against raising CAFE standards or looking at alternative fuels
-The biggest knock on Portman to me is that he graduated from Michigan... I mean really, you want to be a politician in Ohio and you go to Michigan....

General:
-Against Privatizing Social Security
-Voted for the Bush Tax Cuts

When you mention 'stem cell research', which are you referring to, 'embryonic' stem cells or 'adult' stem cells? - There is a major difference here and many voters do take that very seriously.

As for CAFE standards, I have always been a 'free market' guy on this one, let those who pay for the fuel decide on how efficient their vehicles should be.

----------------

Also, I'm hearing a lot of chatter here in Wisconsin that is saying that USHouse Rep. Paul Ryan might also be on the 'short list' for the VP nod.

Any thoughts?

Mike

[Hink]

Probably raised the average IQ of both states when he moved back to Ohio.

I will let this go...

[Hink]

The champ is down, the champ is down... err something like that.

Santorum is out. So sad.


http://politicalticker.blogs.cnn.com...ign/?hpt=hp_c1

[fringe]

Re VP nominee for Republicans, how many rats would climb up the rope to board a ship bound to sink?

Like Palin's nomination in '08, I think the only one willing would one nterested in nothing more than the flash-in-pan notoriety.

Heck, Palin would probably do it again, as would Newt, but nobody would be foolish enough to pick Newt.

[Hink]

Heck, Palin would probably do it again, as would Newt, but nobody would be foolish enough to pick Newt.

McCain picked Palin. Probably the worst, most unqualified VP pick of all time. Newt would be a huge upgrade, even when I can't stand Gingrich.

[illinoisplanner]

Kinda surprised that Rick Santorum is exiting the race now. However, he had to know that it was unlikely for him to win, even if he did win his own state. And I think his daughter's health scare probably helped make the decision easier for him. Why soldier on in a race that is pretty much unwinnable, when there are more important things in life, like spending time with your family? I do have to applaud him on a well-fought race and sticking to his beliefs. I hope Santorum strongly supports Romney and works to bring out the strong conservatives and the working class folks that he successfully cultivated, cause Mitt's definitely going to need that support. And having the strong support of Rick Santorum will be a great symbol of unity and strength for the Republican party.

Regarding the VP slot, I still think more and more that Marco Rubio is the top candidate for VP. It's just a matter of if Mitt actually asks him and if Rubio actually accepts. Presidential candidates rarely pick people that held the same kinds of government positions as them, so thus, any fellow governors are likely out. Rubio, meanwhile, is a Senator and therefore brings some knowledge and experience regarding the federal government (but not too much to call him a Washington insider or career politician). Also, Mitt's an older white guy from the North and a moderate, so anybody similar to that is probably out. By contrast, Marco Rubio is a younger hispanic guy from a southern state (and a swing state, to boot) and is more conservative, so to me, he seems like the best choice. There are a lot more younger voters and a lot more Hispanic voters and Romney needs these constituents to be successful. Rubio also is attractive and charismatic, and IMO, Romney can always use more of that. Rubio is also pretty intelligent and I think can hold his own against the media, hecklers, Biden, etc. Romney also needs conservatives to come out in full-force, and they will with Rubio, who is a darling among conservatives.

Rob Portman seems too similar. Paul Ryan would make a good VP, but he's too controversial of a figure. I also think he could do more by staying where he's at in the House, especially with a Republican president.

I'm still kinda concerned with the polling out of states like OH and VA, which are must-wins for Romney in my mind, and Romney currently is not polling within the margin-of-error in head-to-heads against Obama. A lot can happen between now and November though. But I think Romney needs to do a better job of reaching out to working class voters and assuring voters that he actually does care about people.

[Gotta Speakup]

There is no such thing as a "Hispanic vote". There is really no such thing as Hispanics, they are a large collection of diverse groups, predominately Mexican or Mexican American, with important numbers of Puerto Ricans. Cubans make up somewhere around 10 - 15% of Hispanic voters.

Rubio would be very helpful with Cuban voters in Florida and may even tip the balance of an election in Florida. But his ability to attract Hispanic voters nationally is limited. His personal background and politics doesn't resonate with Mexicans (about 50% or more of all Hispanic voters and Puerto Ricans (another 15% or so of Hispanic voters).

[WSU MUP Student]

Kinda surprised that Rick Santorum is exiting the race now. However, he had to know that it was unlikely for him to win, even if he did win his own state...

His daughter's health aside, I think the main reason he exited now (or anytime before April 24th) was that he wanted to avoid the embarrassment of losing in his home state by a wide margin which I was pretty sure was going to happen. I was actually looking forward to seeing that and now will not be able to...

[Hink]

I'm still kinda concerned with the polling out of states like OH and VA, which are must-wins for Romney in my mind, and Romney currently is not polling within the margin-of-error in head-to-heads against Obama. A lot can happen between now and November though. But I think Romney needs to do a better job of reaching out to working class voters and assuring voters that he actually does care about people.

I think Romney needs to back track on a lot of the positions that he decided to flip flop on to get the crazed tea party vote. He needs to reinforce his moderate positions on social issues and push his business experience on financial issues.

I think for Romney he needs to do 5 things:

1. Exclusively push his record of handling budgets, debt, and reform
2. Push to reform the tax code to lower rates for those making under a Million $... and he needs to support the Buffet Rule
3. Push to cut the budget overall - Like the Simpson- Bowles Plan showed
4. Evade questions on abortion, "family values", and equal rights... unless he wants to go back to where he stood pre-2008
5. Put the burden on Obama to show how he is going to change the tax code, budget, and health system to meet the needs of the US

I think he still has an up hill battle. He has little footing on healthcare. He will have to push his tax reform and budget strategies. If we see unemployment under 8, or continued growth, Romney is pretty screwed.

Obama is in the drivers seat... no matter what the right says, Obama is still liked (around 50%) and the economy is getting better. Those two things in and of themselves give him a HUGE advantage... not just in Ohio and Virginia.

[Blide]

Romney not only has to show Obama is doing a terrible job. He also has to show he'd do better.

The issue that Romney faces is that most people recognize that this economic situation is not entirely Obama's fault as Republicans would like you to believe. Polls indicate that people are frustrated with the pace of the recovery but that doesn't necessarily mean they blame Obama for it. Most people recognize that the situation in Europe or the unrest in the Middle East are not Obama's fault but have a significant impact on the economy. I doubt most voters believe that the economy will suddenly improve if a new president is elected.

[illinoisplanner]

There is no such thing as a "Hispanic vote". There is really no such thing as Hispanics, they are a large collection of diverse groups, predominately Mexican or Mexican American, with important numbers of Puerto Ricans. Cubans make up somewhere around 10 - 15% of Hispanic voters.

Rubio would be very helpful with Cuban voters in Florida and may even tip the balance of an election in Florida. But his ability to attract Hispanic voters nationally is limited. His personal background and politics doesn't resonate with Mexicans (about 50% or more of all Hispanic voters and Puerto Ricans (another 15% or so of Hispanic voters).

I suppose you may be right. I don't know how many Mexicans Rubio will get (maybe some), but I think having someone like Rubio up there would be a step in the right direction for the GOP, rather than the typical old white guys that are usually put up there (aside from Palin...but she was terribly inexperienced and unprepared).

I think Romney needs to back track on a lot of the positions that he decided to flip flop on to get the crazed tea party vote. He needs to reinforce his moderate positions on social issues and push his business experience on financial issues.

I think for Romney he needs to do 5 things:
1.Exclusively push his record of handling budgets, debt, and reform
2.Push to reform the tax code to lower rates for those making under a Million $... and he needs to support the Buffet Rule
3.Push to cut the budget overall - Like the Simpson- Bowles Plan showed
4.Evade questions on abortion, "family values", and equal rights... unless he wants to go back to where he stood pre-2008
5.Put the burden on Obama to show how he is going to change the tax code, budget, and health system to meet the needs of the US

I think he still has an up hill battle. He has little footing on healthcare. He will have to push his tax reform and budget strategies. If we see unemployment under 8, or continued growth, Romney is pretty screwed.

Obama is in the drivers seat... no matter what the right says, Obama is still liked (around 50%) and the economy is getting better. Those two things in and of themselves give him a HUGE advantage... not just in Ohio and Virginia.

He needs to remind people, since when have we ever settled for 8% unemployment and thought that was a good thing? Not to mention the underemplyed and the people that have stopped looking for work. Or record high budget deficits, massive corrpution (Obama being in bed with big labor and green energy; federal employees glorifying wastes of taxpayer dollars), insanely high gas prices and inflation. Remind people that Obama has done little to heal relations and bring about unity as he promised, but rather has presided over increases in racial tension and class warfare. The failures in Afghanistan. The failed diplomacy with Iran and North Korea.

And then, Blide is right, he has to show how he would do a better job. I think Romney's on the right message. "We gotta restore America" and all that. I think he does have to be more convincing that he could do a better job than Obama though. Nuts-and-bolts plans to fix this tax code, and this part of the budget, and all that is great, but a lot of people find that uninteresting. They need more simpleton rhetoric, assurances, promises, and other populist messages to supplment the nuts-and-bolts plans. Romney also needs to continue to present himself as the experienced adult in the room and paint Obama and the far left as children who have been reckless and careless in their handling of problems.

[Gotta Speakup]

I suppose you may be right. I don't know how many Mexicans Rubio will get (maybe some), but I think having someone like Rubio up there would be a step in the right direction for the GOP, rather than the typical old white guys that are usually put up there (aside from Palin...but she was terribly inexperienced and unprepared).

I think you are right. However, to a certain extent, putting Rubio on the ticket would be like Colin Power as Secretary of State. It makes the GOP look more progressive, but does little to attract voters of a certain race/ethnicity.

[imaplanner]

I suppose you may be right. I don't know how many Mexicans Rubio will get (maybe some), .

He will get no Mexicans. Non-citizens are not allowed to vote.

[ofos]

I think you are right. However, to a certain extent, putting Rubio on the ticket would be like Colin Power as Secretary of State. It makes the GOP look more progressive, but does little to attract voters of a certain race/ethnicity.

I'm somewhat in disagreement with the Colin Powell analogy. The GOP has been pretty good about putting minorities in appointive positions like Secretary of State, Treasury, etc. Having one in an elective role, would be a step forward. Of course, having a bright and articulate running mate would also be a step up.

[Gotta Speakup]

He will get no Mexicans. Non-citizens are not allowed to vote.

Well most of my family consider themselves Mexicans, even though we are US citizens and have been in this country for almost 100 years. And we vote. There are even millions of Mexican Republican voters.

If you want to have a discussion of the social construction of race and ethnicity, we should start another thread.

[imaplanner]

Well most of my family consider themselves Mexicans, even though we are US citizens and have been in this country for almost 100 years. And we vote. There are even millions of Mexican Republican voters.

If you want to have a discussion of the social construction of race and ethnicity, we should start another thread.

I might want to start one. I find that interesting. Most of the hispanics I know refer to themselves as hispanics or latinos, not Mexicans. Maybe I need to get out more