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Poll results: What do you think the outcome of tomorrow's presidential election will be?

Voters
26. You may not vote on this poll
  • Obama wins electoral and popular vote

    20 76.92%
  • Romney wins electoral and popular vote

    2 7.69%
  • Gary Johnson wins electoral and popular vote :thumb:

    0 0%
  • Obama wins electoral vote, Romney wins popular vote

    4 15.38%
  • Romney wins electoral vote, Obama wins popular vote

    0 0%
  • Obama and Romney tie in the electoral vote

    0 0%
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Thread: The First 2012 Presidential Election Thread

  1. #126
    Cyburbian Emeritus Bear Up North's avatar
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    Sarah

    While this Bear will acknowledge that the Tea Party could have a sizeable impact on the 2012 Presidential Election, I will steer this post back to the thread title.....

    The 2012 Presidential Election

    Sarah Palin
    I have mentioned in this thread (and perhaps some other similar threads) that Sarah Palin could win the election. Most of you did the "pooh pooh" dance and waved me off. I still believe it is possible.

    She has shown an amazing ability to draw crowds, inspire (for a ton of wrong reasons and some right reasons) potential voters, and stay in the media's eye even without a seat in the Alaska government building. The attached Time essay presents some interesting views, especially with her schmoozing of the female voters. The essay's writer acknowledges that she is still a long-shot.

    Check it out.

    Bear

    http://www.time.com/time/politics/ar...wsletter-daily
    Occupy Cyburbia!

  2. #127
    Cyburbian illinoisplanner's avatar
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    Yeah, I agree with you Bear. I think I said in post #2 of this thread that Sarah Palin is my pick and I think she will probably end up getting the Republican nomination. Will she win in 2012? I don't know. It depends if the country is still lukewarm towards Obama like they are right now and the economy sucks like it does right now. Never been a fan of Huckabee, and Mitt just doesn't have that persona that Sarah does. And yes, Newt has way too many skeletons in the closet.

    Some new faces have surfaced recently. Bob McDonnell and Chris Christie scored huge, well-publicized gubernatorial wins in 2009 in East Coast states that went to Obama just a year prior, while Scott Brown gave Republicans a Senate seat in MA. Will any of these guys make a run in 2012 or 2016 or perhaps make a good VP pick? We shall see. For now, I think they're doing just fine where they currently are.
    "Life's a journey, not a destination"
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  3. #128
    Cyburbian mgk920's avatar
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    I also believe that Sarah Palin is one of the front-runners and can certainly WIN (how would the 2008 vote have gone had the 'R' ticket been reversed?).

    Even though he says that he has no interest in the race, I also fully expect USHouse Rep. Paul Ryan (R-WI 1) to be a factor.

    Others to watch, IMHO, include Indiana Governor Mitch Daniels and Minnesota Governor Rich Pawlenty.

    I also agree, Huckabee will not be a factor. I am also not looking for either big name from Massachusetts (USSenator Scott Brown and former Governor Mitt Romney) to go far, they are both not conservative enough and the latter still has that lingering - and much undeserved - religion issue hanging over him.

    On the 'D' side, I consider it a real possibility that Hillary Clinton could give a primary challenge to BHO in 2012 - especially if his approval numbers keep tanking and/or things either do not improve or they get far worse on the overall scene.

    Mike

  4. #129
    Cyburbian Emeritus Bear Up North's avatar
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    Quote Originally posted by mgk920 View post
    I also believe that Sarah Palin is one of the front-runners and can certainly WIN (how would the 2008 vote have gone had the 'R' ticket been reversed?).
    This Bear thinks that the outcome would have been the same. Since that race Sarah Palin has improved her image at least to the point where other Rs see her as a potential "asset". For a lot of reasons she was a "liability" in 2008.

    Question to ponder? I am not sure which national convention is held first. Seems to me that if a woman (Sarah or Hillary) is the candidate to emerge from that first convention of the Summer it could have an impact on the second convention.

    Imagine this:

    Sarah Palin VS Hillary Clinton

    Bear
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  5. #130
    OH....IO Hink's avatar
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    Quote Originally posted by mgk920 View post
    I also believe that Sarah Palin is one of the front-runners and can certainly WIN (how would the 2008 vote have gone had the 'R' ticket been reversed?).


    It would have favored Obama much more. Palin was too divisive. Still is. I hope for the R's that they look for a better more qualified person - they have a bunch to choose from (I won't say that my Aunt Bessie is more qualified, but she probably is).

    I stated before that I think Mitch Daniels is going to be a bigger name in the coming months. I think the big guns Pawlenty, Jindal, Gingrich, Romney, Huckabee, etc. have all spent most of the their political capital. They are also part of the group of R's that are still in support of some of the socially backwards ideas that are not going to be around for much longer.

    I see one major Tea Party candidate entering the race and one socially moderate candidate, as well as the mainstream one. My guess is that the mainstream R will probably win out over both and lose in the general.


    As for the D race, I don't see anyone doing anything other than support Obama. He will have passed most of his agenda by then, and if the economy is even slightly better than it is today, people will forget about all the stuff he didn't do, and all the promises he didn't keep.
    A common mistake people make when trying to design something completely foolproof is to underestimate the ingenuity of complete fools. -Douglas Adams

  6. #131
    moderator in moderation Suburb Repairman's avatar
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    Quote Originally posted by Hink_Planner View post
    It would have favored Obama much more. Palin was too divisive. Still is. I hope for the R's that they look for a better more qualified person - they have a bunch to choose from (I won't say that my Aunt Bessie is more qualified, but she probably is).

    I stated before that I think Mitch Daniels is going to be a bigger name in the coming months. I think the big guns Pawlenty, Jindal, Gingrich, Romney, Huckabee, etc. have all spent most of the their political capital. They are also part of the group of R's that are still in support of some of the socially backwards ideas that are not going to be around for much longer.

    I see one major Tea Party candidate entering the race and one socially moderate candidate, as well as the mainstream one. My guess is that the mainstream R will probably win out over both and lose in the general.


    As for the D race, I don't see anyone doing anything other than support Obama. He will have passed most of his agenda by then, and if the economy is even slightly better than it is today, people will forget about all the stuff he didn't do, and all the promises he didn't keep.
    Somebody earlier in the thread suggested that the Obama administration may go the route of having Joe Biden graciously step-aside, thus making the D convention more interesting and perhaps re-energizing folks. This could be a way to move Hillary Clinton into the V.P. seat.

    The D's won't be dropping Obama, so everyone just needs to get that out of their heads. While some of the reforms left A LOT to be desired for many, i.e. Wall Street & Banking "reform", he will be able to check off the boxes next to an awful lot of campaign promises even if some remain unfulfilled (and on each of those he kept his distance enough that he can blame Congress for not following through if necessary). Obama's biggest threat is that a Republican is able to successfully pull a page from Bill Clinton's playbook with "it's the economy, stupid", and convince voters that the blame lies with Obama. To some extent, it would be better for at least one chamber of Congress to turn Republican because that would give Obama someone to blame if the economy fails to improve (and to be perfectly honest, I don't like a single party having control of the executive and both Congressional chambers).

    "Oh, that is all well and good, but, voice or no voice, the people can always be brought to the bidding of the leaders. That is easy. All you have to do is tell them they are being attacked and denounce the pacifists for lack of patriotism and exposing the country to danger. It works the same way in any country."

    - Herman Göring at the Nuremburg trials (thoughts on democracy)

  7. #132
    Cyburbian Duke Of Dystopia's avatar
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    Quote Originally posted by mgk920 View post
    I also believe that Sarah Palin is one of the front-runners and can certainly WIN (how would the 2008 vote have gone had the 'R' ticket been reversed?).

    ......
    Mike
    I REFUDIATE your logic that she could win! (ROTHFLMAO !)
    I can't deliver UTOPIA, but I can create a HELL for you to LIVE in :)DoD:(

  8. #133
    Cyburbian mgk920's avatar
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    Quote Originally posted by Duke Of Dystopia View post
    I REFUDIATE your logic that she could win! (ROTHFLMAO !)
    Who were your 'could win' Democrats back in 2006?



    Did I say that she *will* win? *NO* All that I said is that she certainly CAN win. Several other 'R's also certainly can win in 2012 - the 'D's have pained such big, juicy targets on all of their backs over the past 18 months.

    And who would have thought that BHO 'could' win back in 2004?

    Mike

  9. #134
    Cyburbian JimPlans's avatar
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    Lately I can't shake the feeling that Obama is at a turning point right now where he will either become Jimmy Carter or Bill Clinton. I think the Democrats have a high probability of losing the House (probably not the Senate) in November, meaning that Obama will have to be much more confrontational than he has been. If he fails, he's Jimmy, if he succeeds he's Bill.

    One of the major "Jimmy Obama" factors will be who runs agains him in 2012. If a Reagan-type shows up, he could be toast. However, Reagan was very much on the national radar by 1980, and had run for President and lost in 1976. That would imply that we already know the person who could beat Obama in 2012, and I've never gotten any Reagan aura from any of our recent Republican nominees. However, I do get a lot of Bob Dole-aura from them, which points to a "Bill Obama" outcome in 2012, giving Obama a second term, but with a Republican majority in at least one chamber.

    Even so, if Obama keeps limping along the way he has been, not inspiring his base and not confronting his political adversaries, he could shift into "Jimmy" mode even without a strong challenger, as all of the Nation's problems get hung on his shoulders in the next two years. Americans love to lay blame.

  10. #135
    Cyburbian illinoisplanner's avatar
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    Quote Originally posted by mgk920 View post
    And who would have thought that BHO 'could' win back in 2004?
    He was a nobody until he gave that speech at Kerry's convention that gave all the liberals hard-ons.
    "Life's a journey, not a destination"
    -Steven Tyler

  11. #136
    Cyburbian Duke Of Dystopia's avatar
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    Quote Originally posted by mgk920 View post
    Who were your 'could win' Democrats back in 2006?



    Did I say that she *will* win? *NO* All that I said is that she certainly CAN win. Several other 'R's also certainly can win in 2012 - the 'D's have pained such big, juicy targets on all of their backs over the past 18 months.

    And who would have thought that BHO 'could' win back in 2004?

    Mike
    I am pretty sure you missed the whole not so subtlety of my post!

    I am also pretty sure that Sarah the WORDSMITH needs to do better than notes on the palm of her hand to become as profound as Mr. Shakespeare. Oh, wait... she does twiter, so that makes her qualified to write great plays. I forget those details!

    I don't think it matters who runs for the GOP in 2012. As long as they insist that your functional IQ has to be lower than 60 to be a public servant, the DEM's don't have to much to worry about.

    Look at Nevada. The GOP thought it was going to be a cakewalk to knock off Harry Reid. Unfortunately, their base picked the biggest turd they could find to face him. Remember folks, putting fluoride in the water is a commie plot! That is why he is pulling WAY ahead of Angle.

    Rand Paul is roughly even with his little known DEM challenger. Because the more people find out about these nut-bags, the less they like what they want them to do!
    I can't deliver UTOPIA, but I can create a HELL for you to LIVE in :)DoD:(

  12. #137
    Cyburbian btrage's avatar
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    Quote Originally posted by illinoisplanner View post
    He was a nobody until he gave that speech at Kerry's convention that gave all the liberals hard-ons.
    Just like Sarah Palin give's all the hillbillies hard-ons.
    "I'm very important. I have many leather-bound books and my apartment smells of rich mahogany"

  13. #138
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    Quote Originally posted by btrage View post
    Just like Sarah Palin give's all the hillbillies hard-ons.
    If ever there was a "figurative" vs. "literal" example of speech, this is it!
    -----------------------------------------------------------------
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  14. #139
    Cyburbian JimPlans's avatar
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    Uh-oh. I said above that it would take a Reagan-like politician to turn Barak Obama into Jimmy Carter. Now no other source than The Nation is referring to her as Reaganesque:

    A Sarah Palin Rethink (John Nichols)

    "But, like Ronald Reagan heading into the 1976 and 1980 Republican presidential primaries, she is beginning to establish a network of connections—and evidence of political savvy and influence—that make it harder and harder to dismiss her as a real prospect.

    Juxtaposed against the gang-that-couldn’t-shoot-straight nature of the rest of the Republican 2012 pack, Palin is emerging as her party’s most potent prospect. A favorable result from Georgia [where she endorsed former Secretary of State Karen Handel for governor] will merely add to the argument that it is time to accept that Palin is becoming the definitional player in the GOP—much as another conservative outrider, and former governor, named Reagan was in the late 1970s."

  15. #140
    OH....IO Hink's avatar
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    Quote Originally posted by JimPlans View post
    A favorable result from Georgia [where she endorsed former Secretary of State Karen Handel for governor] will merely add to the argument that it is time to accept that Palin is becoming the definitional player in the GOP—much as another conservative outrider, and former governor, named Reagan was in the late 1970s."
    I admit, I hate Sarah Palin. I want very badly for the R's to choose someone that I might consider for president. And she is not it. Nor will she ever be. Period.

    But aside from that - why is it so easy to ignore the folks she supported who lost? It seems that the conservative media (I love making inanimate objects have traits) loves reminding us that there is a Palin push. But what about those who she supported and lost? Does the New York Congressional with Doug Hoffman ring a bell?
    A common mistake people make when trying to design something completely foolproof is to underestimate the ingenuity of complete fools. -Douglas Adams

  16. #141
    OH....IO Hink's avatar
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    So I think I like Bloomberg. I am not really sure if there is much I don't like about him - I am still in the early stages of finding my candidate. He is a social moderate and a fiscal conservative. He has executive experience, has taken a deficit and made it a surplus, and supports gay rights, stem cell research, and is pro-choice.

    Anything I am missing about this guy?
    A common mistake people make when trying to design something completely foolproof is to underestimate the ingenuity of complete fools. -Douglas Adams

  17. #142
    Cyburbian imaplanner's avatar
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    Quote Originally posted by Duke Of Dystopia View post
    I REFUDIATE your logic that she could win! (ROTHFLMAO !)


    I really do find it astonishing that otherwose intelligent people think she could actually win, or would actually support her.

    I would never say this about most anyone else- but no freakin way she could win. And I say this even though I may even vote for her just for the pure entertainment factor
    Children in the back seat can cause accidents - and vice versa.

  18. #143
    Cyburbian imaplanner's avatar
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    Well so much for Newt Gingrinch as a pliable candidate. I guess he gave an interview today where he said we must attack Iran and North Korea because that would complete the destruction of the "axis of evil".
    Children in the back seat can cause accidents - and vice versa.

  19. #144
    Cyburbian JimPlans's avatar
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    Quote Originally posted by Hink_Planner View post
    I admit, I hate Sarah Palin. I want very badly for the R's to choose someone that I might consider for president. And she is not it. Nor will she ever be. Period.

    But aside from that - why is it so easy to ignore the folks she supported who lost? It seems that the conservative media (I love making inanimate objects have traits) loves reminding us that there is a Palin push. But what about those who she supported and lost? Does the New York Congressional with Doug Hoffman ring a bell?
    Now the Washington Post has given us a map so we can track all of Ms. Palin's endorsements:

    The Politics of Palin: Endorsement tracker

    So far she's 10 for 14. Not bad.

  20. #145
    OH....IO Hink's avatar
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    Quote Originally posted by JimPlans View post
    Now the Washington Post has given us a map so we can track all of Ms. Palin's endorsements:

    The Politics of Palin: Endorsement tracker

    So far she's 10 for 14. Not bad.
    And yet she still has horrible numbers... but I guess that is the media's fault

    http://blog.seattlepi.com/seattlepol...sp?source=mypi

    Is she the only one who doesn't realize how horrible she is as a candidate? I sincerely hope that the 60% of R's who don't hate her, start to, because it will be very little of a campaign in 2012 with her on the ticket.

    She helped "win" R primaries. Those candidates will get killed the general. Carly Fiorina? Yea right.
    A common mistake people make when trying to design something completely foolproof is to underestimate the ingenuity of complete fools. -Douglas Adams

  21. #146
    Cyburbian JimPlans's avatar
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    Quote Originally posted by Hink_Planner View post
    And yet she still has horrible numbers... but I guess that is the media's fault

    http://blog.seattlepi.com/seattlepol...sp?source=mypi

    Is she the only one who doesn't realize how horrible she is as a candidate? I sincerely hope that the 60% of R's who don't hate her, start to, because it will be very little of a campaign in 2012 with her on the ticket.

    She helped "win" R primaries. Those candidates will get killed the general. Carly Fiorina? Yea right.
    I absolutely want her to run, but only because I think watching her lose would be as spectacular as watching Darryl Dawkins shatter a glass backboard.

  22. #147
    Cyburbian wahday's avatar
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    Quote Originally posted by JimPlans View post
    I absolutely want her to run, but only because I think watching her lose would be as spectacular as watching Darryl Dawkins shatter a glass backboard.
    Now you're talkin' to my generation! Grew up in the 70s and 80s with DD shattering backboards for the 76ers. The DD stands for double digits...

    I also think Palin would be a spectacular train wreck of a candidate. How's that vapid commentary thingy workin' out for ya?
    The purpose of life is a life of purpose

  23. #148
    Cyburbian imaplanner's avatar
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    Quote Originally posted by wahday View post
    I also think Palin would be a spectacular train wreck of a candidate. How's that vapid commentary thingy workin' out for ya?
    Well. Let's be realistic here. Most of the republican contenders being floated will be spectactular train wrecks. Palin, Gingrich, Thune.
    Children in the back seat can cause accidents - and vice versa.

  24. #149
    Cyburbian TexanOkie's avatar
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    Quote Originally posted by imaplanner View post
    Well. Let's be realistic here. Most of the republican contenders being floated will be spectactular train wrecks. Palin, Gingrich, Thune.
    Yeah, but some aren't. Pawlenty, Daniels, and despite his initial statements, Petraeus.

  25. #150
    Cyburbian imaplanner's avatar
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    Quote Originally posted by TexanOkie View post
    Yeah, but some aren't. Pawlenty, Daniels, and despite his initial statements, Petraeus.
    true. I just haven't heard them mentioned much lately as far as contending. maybe that's a good thing for them. lay low while the crazies out crazy each other and then come out swinging.
    Children in the back seat can cause accidents - and vice versa.

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