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Thread: The NEVERENDING Political Discussion Thread

  1. #2276
    Cyburbian michaelskis's avatar
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    Talk about messed up! I just was talking with the treasurer who showed me a situation where based on the electoral college, both candidates would end up with 269. If that happens, the House picks the president and the Senate picks the VP.

    Romney / Biden?
    Not my monkey, not my circus. - Old Polish Proverb

  2. #2277
    moderator in moderation Suburb Repairman's avatar
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    Quote Originally posted by michaelskis View post
    Talk about messed up! I just was talking with the treasurer who showed me a situation where based on the electoral college, both candidates would end up with 269. If that happens, the House picks the president and the Senate picks the VP.

    Romney / Biden?
    This has occurred twice in history. The first was in 1800, Thomas Jefferson and Aaron Burr tied (that was also the first time you had a P/VP running as a combined party ticket, and the first time electors pledged to vote party-line rather than as free agents). Thomas Jefferson ended up winning, and it led to the 12th amendment. The second time was in 1824 when the House of Representatives chose John Adams over Andrew Jackson. It happened more in this time period simply because there were fewer states and in some cases more candidates (as in 1824), increasing the potential for a tie.

    It is incredibly unlikely, but plausible with this election. You want to really throw a wrinkle into it? Let's assume Obama wins the popular vote, but the Electoral College is tied. Now the House is in a position to select Romney, but doing so would be counter to the popular vote. Imagine that fall-out?

    "Oh, that is all well and good, but, voice or no voice, the people can always be brought to the bidding of the leaders. That is easy. All you have to do is tell them they are being attacked and denounce the pacifists for lack of patriotism and exposing the country to danger. It works the same way in any country."

    - Herman Göring at the Nuremburg trials (thoughts on democracy)

  3. #2278
    Cyburbian
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    In that scenario, I wonder if there'd be a legitimate chance of getting rid of the electoral college. If the electoral college favored Obama and the popular vote did not, I could see some Republicans finally buying into the whole idea. Although the electoral college is really the only thing that gives them a shot of capturing the presidency with any given election.

  4. #2279
    Cyburbian ursus's avatar
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    Quote Originally posted by Suburb Repairman View post
    It is incredibly unlikely, but plausible with this election. You want to really throw a wrinkle into it? Let's assume Obama wins the popular vote, but the Electoral College is tied. Now the House is in a position to select Romney, but doing so would be counter to the popular vote. Imagine that fall-out?
    But it would be the NEWLY ELECTED House that would make the decision, so you never know for sure.

    Seems dumb that in the event of an electoral "draw" it wouldn't just go to the popular vote, doesn't it?
    "...I would never try to tick Hink off. He kinda intimidates me. He's quite butch, you know." - Maister

  5. #2280
    Cyburbian imaplanner's avatar
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    Quote Originally posted by ursus View post
    But it would be the NEWLY ELECTED House that would make the decision, so you never know for sure.

    Seems dumb that in the event of an electoral "draw" it wouldn't just go to the popular vote, doesn't it?
    It seems dumb and it is dumb, but America was never intended to be a democracy. The founders created the electoral college specifically because they did not want the presidency to be decided on the popular vote of the people. Contrary to popular belief, the majority of the founders did not want regular citizens to be making important political decisions. This was most recently clarified by the supreme court (Bush v. Gore) when they said we actually have no constitutional right to vote. The popular vote is technically meaningless, and so is each state vote. Let's just say that Obama wins the popular vote in Ohio but Ohio decides to have all its electoral votes go to Romney anyways. Well that would be perfectly okay under the constitution. I'm not sure if it would be legal under Ohio law, but under many states it would be perfectly okay under the law for the popular state vote to be ignored. So legally and technically, your vote doesn't really matter.
    Children in the back seat can cause accidents - and vice versa.

  6. #2281
    Cyburbian Brocktoon's avatar
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    Quote Originally posted by imaplanner View post
    It seems dumb and it is dumb, but America was never intended to be a democracy. The founders created the electoral college specifically because they did not want the presidency to be decided on the popular vote of the people. Contrary to popular belief, the majority of the founders did not want regular citizens to be making important political decisions. This was most recently clarified by the supreme court (Bush v. Gore) when they said we actually have no constitutional right to vote. The popular vote is technically meaningless, and so is each state vote. Let's just say that Obama wins the popular vote in Ohio but Ohio decides to have all its electoral votes go to Romney anyways. Well that would be perfectly okay under the constitution. I'm not sure if it would be legal under Ohio law, but under many states it would be perfectly okay under the law for the popular state vote to be ignored. So legally and technically, your vote doesn't really matter.
    In most states you vote for the electors and not the party nominee for president/vice president. That is why each parties electoral appears on the ballot. The electors have pledged to vote for their parties nominee if they get the majority of the popular vote. In 2004 one of the electors of Minnesota voted for John Edwards for President instead of John Kerry who "won" the state.
    "If you don't like change, you're going to like irrelevance even less" General Eric Shinseki

  7. #2282
    Cyburbian michaelskis's avatar
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    Polls

    Which Polls do you trust. Personally, I don't Trust CNN, FOX, CBS, NBC, or MSNBC.
    Not my monkey, not my circus. - Old Polish Proverb

  8. #2283
    Cyburbian btrage's avatar
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    Quote Originally posted by michaelskis View post
    Which Polls do you trust. Personally, I don't Trust CNN, FOX, CBS, NBC, or MSNBC.
    I don't understand why polls even matter to be honest. A poll has never influenced my vote, whether my chosen candidate was behind or ahead.

    Just another thing to try and get ratings on TV and ad buys on the interwebs.
    "I'm very important. I have many leather-bound books and my apartment smells of rich mahogany"

  9. #2284
    Cyburbian WSU MUP Student's avatar
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    Quote Originally posted by michaelskis View post
    Which Polls do you trust. Personally, I don't Trust CNN, FOX, CBS, NBC, or MSNBC.
    The only ones I really pay attention to are the Iowa Electronic Market and the Five Thirty Eight blog. Both are more forecasts than they are traditional polls though.
    "Where free unions and collective bargaining are forbidden, freedom is lost." - 1980 Republican presidential candidate Ronald Reagan

  10. #2285
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    Individual polls don't matter. It's irrelevant that Romney is leading in national polls when he's still behind in most swing states. The polls also don't factor in the ground game in which Obama has the clear advantage.

    As for polling information. Nate Silver's 538 blog is the place to go. The model incorporates polling data, economic variables, and past election data to predict election results. Nate Silver may be a liberal himself but he created the model so his personal biases wouldn't get in the way of the predictions. He has well documented his entire methodology and thoroughly explained why it works the way it does.

    As for the importance of polls. I think Obama's drop in the polls after the first debate will be important in getting more Democrats to the polls since it showed his reelection wasn't a given.

  11. #2286
    Cyburbian
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    Saw this cool map that Stanford did of the 2008 elections that shows how all the different precincts voted. It's pretty interesting to see the geographic breakdown of the red / blue vote in some urban areas.

  12. #2287
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    Quote Originally posted by Blide View post
    Saw this cool map that Stanford did of the 2008 elections that shows how all the different precincts voted. It's pretty interesting to see the geographic breakdown of the red / blue vote in some urban areas.
    McCain didn't win a single district in Hawaii. Wow.

  13. #2288
    Cyburbian imaplanner's avatar
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    Quote Originally posted by Blide View post
    Saw this cool map that Stanford did of the 2008 elections that shows how all the different precincts voted. It's pretty interesting to see the geographic breakdown of the red / blue vote in some urban areas.
    Wow. That is an awesome map. Thanks for posting that.
    Children in the back seat can cause accidents - and vice versa.

  14. #2289
    Cyburbian chupacabra's avatar
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    Quote Originally posted by michaelskis View post
    Which Polls do you trust. Personally, I don't Trust CNN, FOX, CBS, NBC, or MSNBC.
    I check into to Intrade now and again. It's not a poll, but it reflected outcomes accurately in previous elections.

    http://www.intrade.com/v4/home/
    You can grow ideas in the garden of your mind.

  15. #2290
    moderator in moderation Suburb Repairman's avatar
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    Mildly excited... it looks like my Texas state house rep screwed up badly enough last session that we may score an unexpected democrat victory. While others may not think this a big deal, our current rep was viewed as a serious up-and-comer in the GOP. The democrat is hammering him, quite successfully, over the school finance issues here in Texas over the last two years.

    "Oh, that is all well and good, but, voice or no voice, the people can always be brought to the bidding of the leaders. That is easy. All you have to do is tell them they are being attacked and denounce the pacifists for lack of patriotism and exposing the country to danger. It works the same way in any country."

    - Herman Göring at the Nuremburg trials (thoughts on democracy)

  16. #2291
    Cyburbian michaelskis's avatar
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    30 states petition federal government to secede after election

    I am fascinated that it is a combination of both red states and blue states. I wonder if we will get to a point where secession from the US happens, or if the US will just break up into 5 or 6 parts.
    Last edited by kjel; 13 Nov 2012 at 2:01 PM. Reason: URL Fix
    Not my monkey, not my circus. - Old Polish Proverb

  17. #2292
    Cyburbian btrage's avatar
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    Quote Originally posted by michaelskis View post
    30 states petition federal government to secede after election

    I am fascinated that it is a combination of both red states and blue states. I wonder if we will get to a point where secession from the US happens, or if the US will just break up into 5 or 6 parts.
    The federal government would never let it happen. It was already attempted once, and it didn't work.
    Last edited by kjel; 13 Nov 2012 at 2:02 PM. Reason: URL Fix
    "I'm very important. I have many leather-bound books and my apartment smells of rich mahogany"

  18. #2293
    Cyburbian Tide's avatar
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    Quote Originally posted by michaelskis View post
    30 states petition federal government to secede after election

    I am fascinated that it is a combination of both red states and blue states. I wonder if we will get to a point where secession from the US happens, or if the US will just break up into 5 or 6 parts.
    After financial collapse of the country I can see the interest at its highest. Why should prosperous states (Georgia) "carry" certain states (California, as examples) will be the rationale. Will succession succeed, I don't know.
    Last edited by kjel; 13 Nov 2012 at 2:02 PM. Reason: URL Fix
    @GigCityPlanner

  19. #2294
    Super Moderator luckless pedestrian's avatar
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    feeling new england fiesty today

    I say "don't let the door hit you on the way out" - you want out? see ya'...

  20. #2295
    Cyburbian michaelskis's avatar
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    Quote Originally posted by Tide View post
    After financial collapse of the country I can see the interest at its highest. Why should prosperous states (Georgia) "carry" certain states (California, as examples) will be the rationale. Will succession succeed, I don't know.
    That is what I am wondering too. I personally hope that it does not, but with things going the way that they are going, I would not be too surprised if some type of shakeup happens.
    Not my monkey, not my circus. - Old Polish Proverb

  21. #2296
    Super Moderator kjel's avatar
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    Quote Originally posted by luckless pedestrian View post
    I say "don't let the door hit you on the way out" - you want out? see ya'...
    Pretty much.
    "He defended the cause of the poor and needy, and so all went well. Is that not what it means to know me?" Jeremiah 22:16

  22. #2297
    Cyburbian dw914er's avatar
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    Quote Originally posted by Tide View post
    After financial collapse of the country I can see the interest at its highest. Why should prosperous states (Georgia) "carry" certain states (California, as examples) will be the rationale. Will succession succeed, I don't know.
    If the union ended up dissolving, I think California would be alright.

    This idea of states seceding just seems funny though; some people seem way to butthurt over the election results and are acting on emotion over common sense.
    And that concludes staff’s presentation...

  23. #2298
    Cyburbian terraplnr's avatar
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    Some of the counter-petitions on the WhiteHouse.gov website made me laugh:

    - Petition to Deport Everyone that Signed a Petition to Withdraw their State from the United States of America
    - Petition to Strip the Citizenship from Everyone who Signed a Petition to Secede and Exile Them

  24. #2299
    Super Moderator luckless pedestrian's avatar
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    Quote Originally posted by terraplnr View post
    Some of the counter-petitions on the WhiteHouse.gov website made me laugh:

    - Petition to Deport Everyone that Signed a Petition to Withdraw their State from the United States of America
    - Petition to Strip the Citizenship from Everyone who Signed a Petition to Secede and Exile Them
    OMG that is so funny!!!!

  25. #2300
    Cyburbian michaelskis's avatar
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    What if it does happen. Do you think that particular states would group together or do you think we will have the US, with several independent nations among the remaining 20? Or do you think it would be a total collapse of the US? I also think that 40,000 signatures in TX is enough to get people's attention.

    Why do you think that all these states want to leave the union? Interestingly enough, many historians say that the Civil war was about states rights as much as about slavery. Here is an interesting article on it. I don't agree with this 100% but there is quite a bit of truth to what he says.
    Not my monkey, not my circus. - Old Polish Proverb

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