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Poll results: What are your predictions for the 2010 U.S. Midterm Elections?

Voters
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  • Democrats retain both House and Senate

    6 17.65%
  • Republicans win both House and Senate

    2 5.88%
  • Repubs win House; Dems retain Senate

    13 38.24%
  • Dems retain House; Repubs win Senate

    2 5.88%
  • Repubs win House; Repubs and Dems split Senate

    3 8.82%
  • Dems retain House; Repubs and Dems split Senate

    1 2.94%
  • Don't know/Don't care/Something else

    7 20.59%
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Thread: 2010 U.S. Midterm Election Predictions

  1. #1
    Cyburbian illinoisplanner's avatar
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    2010 U.S. Midterm Election Predictions

    So, what are everyone's predictions for the upcoming midterm elections in the U.S.? Various analysts have predicted the Republicans could take back the House and possibly even the Senate. Republicans could also win back majority control over U.S. governorships. A lot is at stake in this election.

    To me, it's becoming more reminiscent of 1994, where I think that Republicans will take back control of both the House and the Senate and the majority of U.S. governorships. I think that John Boehner will become Speaker of the House and Mitch McConnell may become Senate Majority Leader (although I wouldn't be surprised if they choose someone else, especially for Senate), and that's only if the Republicans win that chamber. I think the Senate will be really close, but I predict a 51-49 type situation, with Republicans winning by a hare.

    Locally, what are the big races going on in your state? In Illinois, both Obama's old Senate seat and the governorship recently held by Blago are at stake, and I expect both seats to go to Republicans. The governorship will be won more easily, while the Senate race will be a little tighter. There are also 4 very competitive House races (8th, 11th, 14th, 17th) with Democratic incumbents and I expect all of them to go to Republicans.

    So what are your bold predictions for the U.S. Congress and for your state? Do you think Republicans will control one chamber while Democrats control another? Do you think Republicans will control both? Do you think Democrats will miraculously turn things around in the next 3 weeks to retain control and minimize their losses? What will this mean? If Republicans take over control of one or both houses, do you think both sides will be more willing to compromise and work with each other, like what happened with Clinton and the Republican Congress in the 1990s? Will this have implications for 2012? Discuss.
    "Life's a journey, not a destination"
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  2. #2
    Cyburbian imaplanner's avatar
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    My prediction is that whatever happens- the middle class loses.
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  3. #3
    Cyburbian kalimotxo's avatar
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    People are pissed and angry voters punish incumbents. Save some major event in the next few weeks, I see no chance of the Ds retaining the House. The Senate will be a lot closer... I'd bet on a very narrow Dem majority or a split chamber. Out of the 6 major toss-ups, I see Washington, California, Nevada, and Illinois remaining D. GOP will probably take Colorado and - I can't believe I'm saying this - could very well take WV (I'll add that if Shelley Moore Capito had decided to run in WV, she'd clean Manchin's clock and a GOP majority would be pretty certain.)

    I've been watching a lot of the House races pretty closely here in Virginia. Frank Wolf will retain his throne in my home district, as he has since before I was born. Rick Boucher, my current congressman, is getting a more serious challenge than usual this year. It's interesting how his ability to funnel pork into southwestern VA is helping to keep him afloat, even in an election that is weighted so heavily against Dems and big spenders and in a pretty conservative part of the country. I don't imagine ol Rick will be giving up his seat this year though.

    The race I'm most interested in is that of Tom Perriello, the freshman Dem whose district covers the preppiest city in the state (Charlottesville) and some of the most impoverished cities in the country (Danville and Martinsville). I think he's the most respectable federal politician in the country. He has done a ton of awesome advocacy work in Africa (and helped get Charles Taylor booted). He holds multiple town halls every time he casts a major vote and honestly explains his positions to his constituents without dissembling. In my mind, he's progressive in the right ways (environment, civil liberties, foreign policy, health care, etc) but is reasonably conservative in his treatment of gun rights, federal spending, etc. While he's out there busting his ass campaigning, though, his opponent Robert Hurt is simply running ads of his pretty face and refusing almost every invitation to debate. Unfortunately, in this environment, Perriello's probably going to lose, and that makes me sad and disenchanted. Sometimes I wish I'd chosen to go to grad school at UVa just so I could vote for him. That's a lie, but I think he's pretty cool.

    What are your predictions for BHO's old seat, illinoisplanner?
    Process and dismissal. Shelter and location. Everybody wants somewhere.

  4. #4
    Cyburbian illinoisplanner's avatar
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    Quote Originally posted by kalimotxo View post
    What are your predictions for BHO's old seat, illinoisplanner?
    It's a pretty tight race and will likely remain that way until the end, but I think Republican Mark Kirk will win narrowly, maybe 52-48 or 51-49. Kirk is a more moderate/independent Republican who won his liberal House district very handily in 08 despite huge Republican losses elsewhere in the state that year. I think Kirk will also benefit from people who are voting for Republican Bill Brady for Governor. Brady has been leading in the polls all campaign-long and he is almost assuredly going to win. There is a lot of anti-Blago sentiment in this state and I think a lot of people in the downstate areas and swing-area suburbs have had enough of the corruption and may see the Democratic Senate candidate Alexi Giannoulias as being too tied in to the Chicago political machine. There's been a lot of reporting about his family's questionable practices when they ran a bank (loaning money to mobsters and to Blago's go-to guy, convicted felon Tony Rezko), which has now closed. The economy being a big issue, a candidate who ran a bank with questionable practices which has now failed is not going to be seen too well by the public. Giannoulias is also currently Illinois' State Treasurer and people are fed up with the state budget and economy being in shambles.
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  5. #5
    Cyburbian mgk920's avatar
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    Here in Wisconsin, I'm pretty certain that the Rs will pick up the Governor's office (Milwaukee County Executive Scott Walker over City of Milwaukee Mayor Tom Barrett). Barrett has been running a totally lackluster campaign and the Walker campaign is equating Barrett as being a 'third term' for almost mythically unpopular outgoing Democrat Governor James Doyle, as well as hammering Barrett on his failings in the City of Milwaukee. Both houses of the state legislature will likely go from majority D to majority R (only a couple of seats separate the parties in both), too.

    Also, two and possibly three USHouse seats and a USSenate seat will all likely go from D to R (incumbant Democrat USSenator Russ Feingold will lose to political newcomer Republican Ron Johnson, a businessguy from Oshkosh). After the election, the party balance in Wisconsin's eight USHouse seats will be either 5R/3D or 6R/2D.

    Mike

  6. #6
    Cyburbian WSU MUP Student's avatar
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    I voted that the Democrats will retain the Senate but the Republicans will win back the house. If I had voted a month or two ago, I would have predicted that the Republicans would take control of both.

    In Michigan, it looks like a sure thing that the Republicans will take back the governor's house and looking at the past list of governors, it seems to go back and forth between parties about every 8-to-12 years so it doesn't seem like some huge upset. None of the Democratic candidates really seemed to be the type to capture the imaginations of the voters and the one who won the primary seems to have a large segment of the electorate who just hate absolutely hate him (based primarily on some angry interviews he did on FoxNews about 2 years ago). The republican candidate is making his first stab at politics after coming from the business world so he doesn't really have any political background to run on. Of course that could be a positive for some people but considering he hasn't really put forth any concrete ideas or plans during his campaign and only agreed to one debate, it's hard to pin him down on anything.

    Locally, I live in Michigan's 9th Congressional District where we have a freshman Democratic representative in D.C. running against a Tea Party endorsed Republican candidate. All the polls I've seen have them running absolutely neck and neck. The challenger seems to be putting a lot more into advertising right now but I imagine that will change as it gets closer to election day. It should be a very interesting race. The one thing that really hurt the Republican challenger in this voter's eyes was the fact that he had Phyllis Schlafly campaigning for him at a few events and some of the god-awful remarks she made regarding women's rights, rape, and domestic abuse and the candidates subsequent refusal to denounce the remarks or even attempt to distance himself from her.
    "Where free unions and collective bargaining are forbidden, freedom is lost." - 1980 Republican presidential candidate Ronald Reagan

  7. #7
    moderator in moderation Suburb Repairman's avatar
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    I have a feeling that people aren't looking past the letter at the end of the name in our Gov. race in Texas. A shame, because it is really time for Perry to go and White, despite the "D" at the end of his name, is closer to a blue dog than people realize. Even though I don't support him, I've always been impressed with Perry's ability to seem like the underdog outsider despite having been a career politician to the point of becoming a millionaire. I'm amazed that someone that has been in office as long as he as has managed to appear like a champion for anti-incumbant angry citizens desite every fact pointing to the contrary.

    House: Republicans
    Senate: close, but Democrats

    I actually hold some optimism if this occurs--Despite my liberal leanings, I don't like having both chambers + the executive under the control of a single party. That leads to complacency and reduced potential for success in working with the minority party (majority party gets cocky, and minority party gets hyper-defensive).

    Like others have said, the middle class will lose regardless of who is elected.
    Last edited by Suburb Repairman; 12 Oct 2010 at 9:30 AM.

    "Oh, that is all well and good, but, voice or no voice, the people can always be brought to the bidding of the leaders. That is easy. All you have to do is tell them they are being attacked and denounce the pacifists for lack of patriotism and exposing the country to danger. It works the same way in any country."

    - Herman Göring at the Nuremburg trials (thoughts on democracy)

  8. #8
    OH....IO Hink's avatar
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    Quote Originally posted by illinoisplanner View post
    So, what are everyone's predictions for the upcoming midterm elections in the U.S.? Various analysts have predicted the Republicans could take back the House and possibly even the Senate. Republicans could also win back majority control over U.S. governorships. A lot is at stake in this election.

    To me, it's becoming more reminiscent of 1994, where I think that Republicans will take back control of both the House and the Senate and the majority of U.S. governorships. I think that John Boehner will become Speaker of the House and Mitch McConnell may become Senate Majority Leader (although I wouldn't be surprised if they choose someone else, especially for Senate), and that's only if the Republicans win that chamber. I think the Senate will be really close, but I predict a 51-49 type situation, with Republicans winning by a hare.

    Locally, what are the big races going on in your state?
    I don't think the Tea Party candidates will do as well as people think in the general. Although I think the "vote out the incumbent" mentality is strong, I can't see a world where Christine McDonnell could actually win. Although I don't enjoy the D's attack ads, they seem to be working, as many races that were once a done deal, are again in play. I also think that with many of the Tea Party candidates winning the primaries they have put the local R parties in bad places. They now have to pretend to support these candidates until they lose, which hurts their reputation with independent and rational minded voters.

    I don't see any scenario where the R's don't win back at least the house. There were just too many random wins in 2008 for the D's to believe that they could keep that many seats. I honestly hope that the R's win the House back. We need a shared government.

    With that said, I see no way that the R's can win the senate. Harry Reid isn't going to lose to crazy mcgee. Which pretty much puts the R's ability to get enough seats out of hand. I don't like Mr. Reid, but he is *shudder* more rational than Sharron Angle. Which says something about our government.

    I hope that Obama works to become more moderate and independent in his thinking, and I honestly don't think that will happen unless he can put some of the blame on the R's. The R's also have to be willing to step up and compromise. Which will be a difficult battle with freshman Tea Partiers being unrealistic and unclear in their policy.

    On the local front, I have the pleasure () of having a one John Boehner as my representative. He hasn't even put up an ad to support him, they are all about supporting Republicans. He isn't worried about his seat, and he shouldn't be. The D's couldn't find anyone with experience to run against him. I have never liked him, and think he will be a horrible speaker. I hope he proves me wrong.

    Also in Ohio, we have a governors race that is looking like it will go to the R's. I don't like Kasich (a wall street insider, who worked for Lehman Brothers) mainly because he wants to stop funding for rail and alternate transportation in the state. Ohio's chunk of the Transportation funds from the stimulus he doesn't want to use. He also won't help clean Lake St. Mary's (which has been polluted by Farm fertilizer run-off) because it will cost $1-$2 million in state money a year for 10 years. Lake St. Mary's brings in over $100 million a year in tourism money...
    A common mistake people make when trying to design something completely foolproof is to underestimate the ingenuity of complete fools. -Douglas Adams

  9. #9
    Cyburbian btrage's avatar
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    I'm usually a politics junkie, but I'm just so worn down with everything that I'm completely tuning out the races.

    I agree with imaplanner, none of it really matters.

    We have become what Eisenhower warned against.
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  10. #10
    Cyburbian The One's avatar
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    YES!

    Quote Originally posted by imaplanner View post
    My prediction is that whatever happens- the middle class loses.
    The middle class is going to LOSE big time!
    "The modern conservative is engaged in one of man's oldest exercises in moral philosophy; that is, the search for a superior moral justification for selfishness."
    John Kenneth Galbraith

  11. #11
    The R's/TEA party folks nominated too many extreme candidates for them to take over the Senate. Sadly, it won't make any difference. The Senate was already acting this way before the election. I also agree with what has been posted above. The middle class will be the real losers in the upcoming election.
    When did I go from Luke Skywalker to Obi-Wan Kenobi?

  12. #12
    Gunfighter Mastiff's avatar
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    Quote Originally posted by The One View post
    The middle class is going to LOSE big time!
    Until the people of this country come together with one voice, set aside all the social issues for another day, and demand campaign finance and lobby reform... nothing will change no matter who is in power.

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  13. #13
    Cyburbian PrahaSMC's avatar
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    I think it's pretty clear the House will turn over, but likely that the Dems retain the Senate (~52 seats). The Republicans could have easily swept both houses, but the nominations of McMahon (a joke); O'Donnell (a freakshow); Kirk (a pathological liar); Angle (ditto) cost them 3-4 seats. In a political climate like this, hapless candidates like Blumenthal and Giannoulias would lose some of their own party's support to a normal-sounding moderate R; missed opportunity, if you're a conservative.

    I love politics and am very much of the opinion that if you don't vote, you forfeit any right to complain... but that Illionis Senate race makes me want to vomit. I'd probably vote 3rd party in protest

  14. #14
    Cyburbian
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    Republicans will take the House. The question is how much of a margin they will win.

    I also predict the Republicans will take the Senate.

    Right now there is a 41/59 split in the Senate in the Demcrats' favor. The Republicans are not expected to lose any seat they currently hold.

    Pickups:

    Six guaranteed pickups:
    Pennsylvania
    Indiana
    Colorado
    Wisconsin
    Arkansas
    North Dakota

    That brings the Republicans to a 47/53 split.

    The following races are neck to neck but have recently trended (if very slightly) in the R's favor:

    Illinois
    West Virginia
    Washington
    Nevada

    I predict the Republicans will sweep all four. In the last few elections almost every single neck-to-neck race was won by the overall winning party of the year. I expect the same to happen this year.


    New Republican Senate majority:

    51 R to 49 D

  15. #15
    OH....IO Hink's avatar
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    Quote Originally posted by PennPlanner View post
    Republicans will take the House. The question is how much of a margin they will win.

    I also predict the Republicans will take the Senate.

    Right now there is a 41/59 split in the Senate in the Demcrats' favor. The Republicans are not expected to lose any seat they currently hold.

    Pickups:

    Six guaranteed pickups:
    Pennsylvania
    Indiana
    Colorado
    Wisconsin
    Arkansas
    North Dakota

    That brings the Republicans to a 47/53 split.

    The following races are neck to neck but have recently trended (if very slightly) in the R's favor:

    Illinois
    West Virginia
    Washington
    Nevada

    I predict the Republicans will sweep all four. In the last few elections almost every single neck-to-neck race was won by the overall winning party of the year. I expect the same to happen this year.


    New Republican Senate majority:

    51 R to 49 D
    Are you Dick Morris? Not one ideologically neutral person thinks that the R's will sweep Illinois, WV, Washington, and Nevada. I can see Washington and possibly Illinois, but not WV and Nevada as well. If Sharon Angle goes to Congress, we all should be worried.

    Also, Colorado and Kentucky will be in play. Rand Paul was a horrible pick, and in a state that is as red as cherry kool-aid he is up 1-2%. Buck in Colorado was also a bad pick and it will be interesting how it shakes out.

    In many ways I would like to see the R's take both houses of Congress (although Sean Hannity and the other talking head moron's would have a field day) because then they would have to take responsibility for their actions over the last 2 years. With veto power, Obama can still shape legislation, but it will be interesting to see how the R's continue to be uncompromising. If they win both house and senate, and still nothing gets done... hopefully the R's will purge all the loony rights and move back towards the McCain (2008) world of compromise...
    A common mistake people make when trying to design something completely foolproof is to underestimate the ingenuity of complete fools. -Douglas Adams

  16. #16
    Cyburbian Duke Of Dystopia's avatar
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    Quote Originally posted by imaplanner View post
    My prediction is that whatever happens- the middle class loses.
    People still think that if you make $80,000 a year to $1,000,000 is middle class. People don't even know what "middle class" is. Sometimes I think "middle class" is more of an idea of social shelter than a reality.
    I can't deliver UTOPIA, but I can create a HELL for you to LIVE in :)DoD:(

  17. #17
    Cyburbian TexanOkie's avatar
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    Off-topic:
    Quote Originally posted by Duke Of Dystopia View post
    People still think that if you make $80,000 a year to $1,000,000 is middle class.
    In many parts of the country (especially on the coasts), an $80K salary (maybe even into the low-mid $100K's) is middle class.

  18. #18
    Cyburbian Duke Of Dystopia's avatar
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    Quote Originally posted by TexanOkie View post
    Off-topic:


    In many parts of the country (especially on the coasts), an $80K salary (maybe even into the low-mid $100K's) is middle class.
    Like so many things, an easily quantifiable number gets twisted so it doesn't mean anything. The top 20% of singular person earners starts at about 88K weather you are on the right coast, left coast, or in the middle. the top 1.5% of earners starts at about 250k.

    That last upper quintile in any area, is wealthy. Otherwise, middle class has no meaning. Quibble about the borders of the quintile? ok. Over 100K is never middle class (singular person earners).
    I can't deliver UTOPIA, but I can create a HELL for you to LIVE in :)DoD:(

  19. #19
    Cyburbian The One's avatar
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    Yeah right.....

    Quote Originally posted by Duke Of Dystopia View post
    Like so many things, an easily quantifiable number gets twisted so it doesn't mean anything. The top 20% of singular person earners starts at about 88K weather you are on the right coast, left coast, or in the middle. the top 1.5% of earners starts at about 250k.

    That last upper quintile in any area, is wealthy. Otherwise, middle class has no meaning. Quibble about the borders of the quintile? ok. Over 100K is never middle class (singular person earners).
    Give me a break. How can ANYONE be surprised that the middle class keeps getting adjusted up the income ladder?

    "Globalization is part of reason the median wage of male workers hasn’t risen in three decades, adjusted for inflation. Starting in the late 1970s, technologies like cargo ships, containers, and satellite communications, followed by computers and the Internet, enabled companies to efficiently parcel out work around the world wherever it could be done most cheaply. The result has been to undermine unions and destroy many good-paying routine jobs in America.

    Meanwhile, the biggest benefits have gone to the top – to executives of U.S. global corporations, Wall Street financiers, big-name entertainers, and the most successful digital entrepreneurs. All have been sufficiently educated and well-connected, or lucky enough, to find a huge and growing global market for what they sell.

    The consequence has been a degree of inequality not seen in this country since the late 1920s.

    The winners from globalization have gained so much that they could have fully compensated the losers and still come out ahead. They could have financed better schools and free higher education for most Americans, along with wage subsidies that brought almost everyone up to a higher standard of living.

    But they didn’t. Instead, they fought to keep their tax shelters, loopholes, and lower marginal rates, and they fought against more outlays for public investments and social safety nets. Wall Street got bailed out but Main Street got zilch.

    So we’re on the cusp of new isolationism that’s likely to hurt all of us – a backlash against free trade, immigration, and maybe even international bodies such as the World Trade Organization, the World Bank, and IMF.

    Isolationism and nationalism are the handmaidens of an economically anxious and frustrated middle class. That was the lesson we learned 80 years ago, but forgot."
    Robert Reich; Here's What Tea-Party Isolationism Will Do To The Economy

    Read more: http://www.businessinsider.com/reich...#ixzz12Fpsdbfe

    and;

    http://www.news-leader.com/article/2...s+gets+a+break

    "So far, though, what we've created is a system that tends to create a lower class that is dependent on welfare and an upper crust fattened by reduced regulation and tax breaks (hidden welfare) and favored by a constant source of cheap labor; none of which gives the poor a means of pulling themselves up or the nation a stable platform for security. So why are we, the middle class, living in a lopsided welfare state where the bottom gets welfare and the top gets welfare, but the middle just gets the squeeze? " Bob Ranney
    "The modern conservative is engaged in one of man's oldest exercises in moral philosophy; that is, the search for a superior moral justification for selfishness."
    John Kenneth Galbraith

  20. #20
    Cyburbian imaplanner's avatar
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    Quote Originally posted by TexanOkie View post
    Off-topic:


    In many parts of the country (especially on the coasts), an $80K salary (maybe even into the low-mid $100K's) is middle class.
    What is middle class? Is it what Duke is defining it as in terms of percentage, or is it defined more relative to local cost of living?
    Children in the back seat can cause accidents - and vice versa.

  21. #21
    Cyburbian TexanOkie's avatar
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    Quote Originally posted by imaplanner View post
    What is middle class? Is it what Duke is defining it as in terms of percentage, or is it defined more relative to local cost of living?
    That is a very good question. There are merits to both perspectives. What does BLS or the Census say about it?

  22. #22
    Cyburbian zman's avatar
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    For my good old state, Colorado, I see the Dems holding onto the Senate seat. The only change in the House coming in my district whent he Republicans take the seat back.

    The Dems will win for Governor.
    You get all squeezed up inside/Like the days were carved in stone/You get all wired up inside/And it's bad to be alone

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  23. #23
    Cyburbian Duke Of Dystopia's avatar
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    Quote Originally posted by The One View post
    Give me a break. How can ANYONE be surprised that the middle class keeps getting adjusted up the income ladder?
    .....
    You misunderstand what I am saying. I agree and know those things you say in the rest of your post.

    What I am getting at is the wealthy do their best to be thought of as anything but wealthy. In one instance, we are supposed to hold Ann Rands "greed is good" concept above all else. In the next instance, those who have acquired the wealth through whatever means, see themselves as merely middle class and one step above a pauper. Call it survival instinct or whatever you want to. It all amounts to conflating "middle class" with "many people make much more money than I do, so I can't be wealthy".

    2005 Census Data (give or take a few thousand at the general limit)
    1st Quintile, ("The Poor") $0 to ~$20,000
    2nd Quintile, ("Working Class/lower middle Class") $20,000 to ~$37,500
    3rd Quintile, ("Middle Class") ~$40,000 to ~57,500
    4th Quintile, ("Upper Middle Class") $60,000 to ~ 90,000*
    5th Quintile, ("Wealthy") $90,000* and up

    * Note: I apologize for being off by ~$2,000 for the wealthy category line.



    You can argue local cost of living all you want to, but it does not change the fact of what quintile you fit into. Maybe it has no meaning. I find it hard to understand how the wealthy can be so adamant about the right to acquire wealth and then are so embarrassed by it that they can't admit to it. There would be no embarrassment about being wealthy if they felt there wasn't some reason to feel shame about acquiring wealth. Does the shame come from wanting to fit in with your peers or is it due to understanding how that wealth was acquired. I would like to know (but don't expect a real answer).
    I can't deliver UTOPIA, but I can create a HELL for you to LIVE in :)DoD:(

  24. #24
    Cyburbian The One's avatar
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    Income alone isn't enough.....

    Check out these great charts, tables and other data on recent financial wealth in the US.

    http://sociology.ucsc.edu/whorulesam...er/wealth.html

    You can't compare the pretend bell curve of income levels to the L-Curve of net wealth/financial wealth that is reality.

    http://www.lcurve.org/

    From a strictly income point of view, middle class would fit nicely in the middle. Using net wealth or financial wealth would put the middle class in the top 20% somewhere.

    Using net wealth or even financial wealth
    Top 1% truly rich= 35% wealth
    Next 19% Middle Class= 50% wealth
    Lowest 80% Working Poor= 15% of wealth
    Last edited by The One; 13 Oct 2010 at 5:29 PM.
    "The modern conservative is engaged in one of man's oldest exercises in moral philosophy; that is, the search for a superior moral justification for selfishness."
    John Kenneth Galbraith

  25. #25
    Cyburbian imaplanner's avatar
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    Quote Originally posted by The One View post
    Check out these great charts, tables and other data on recent financial wealth in the US.

    http://sociology.ucsc.edu/whorulesam...er/wealth.html
    Wow. Nice find TO. Lots of good data in there.
    Children in the back seat can cause accidents - and vice versa.

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