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Thread: Census 2010

  1. #1
    Cyburbian Emeritus Bear Up North's avatar
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    Census 2010

    We are about a month away from the final date that Census 2020 numbers must be presented to the President of the USA. This thread is for projections, complaints, concerns, thoughts, yadda.....related to the results.

    This Bear resides in a bedroom suburb of Toledo, OH. My estimate for Toledo's population is 286,000. That is a significant drop since the last census but not nearly as significant in percentage as some other rust-belt central core cities. My estimate for the Toledo Metro is a small increase. Toledo is one of the few mid-sized USA cities to have a high population percentage in the core city, so "The Glass City" will show a core city population near or greater than some major cities, such as Pittsburgh, Buffalo, and Cincinnati.

    I will voice my usual complaint: Bedford Township, MI, is situated along the Ohio-Michigan state line. If you stand on a roof in Bedford Township you can see the skytowers of downtown Toledo. But the Bedford population is not part of the Toledo Metro......it is Monroe County, MI, linked to Detroit.....55 miles to the north. Methinks that Bedford Township has about 20,000 souls.

    Because the census folks release projections nearly every year, there will be probably be no major surprises across the land. What will be interesting is the apportionment for Congressional seats. And with Republican's now (or about to) control many states, look for some interesting geographic boundaries.

    What say you?

    Bear
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  2. #2
    Cyburbian DetroitPlanner's avatar
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    Actually it is part of the Toledo Urbanized area.
    http://www.tmacog.org/Transportation...rban_Areas.pdf

    It is however part of The Detroit MPO area. This is done for adminstrative purposes. There is quite a bit of coordination between SEMCOG and TMACOG including having annual joint meetings of task forces. Bedford Township and nearby townships of Whiteford and Erie belong to both TMACOG and SEMCOG.

    http://www.tmacog.org/membership/TMA...al_Members.pdf

    It is easy to get these things confused. For example, the Ann Arbor Urbanized area begins about a mile W of Metro Airport, but the Detroit Metro Area goes all the way up to US-23 and M-59! While US-23 and I-96 is considerably closer to Detroit, it is part of the Howell, Brighton, South Lyon Urban Area.
    We hope for better things; it will arise from the ashes - Fr Gabriel Richard 1805

  3. #3
    Cyburbian Emeritus Bear Up North's avatar
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    Metro Areas

    One of the census aspects I will find interesting is the growth of mid-size Metropolitan Areas. In the last 20 years, many small core cities have experienced significant metro growth. When you browse the names of metros in the 500,000 to 1,000,000 range you see many nearly-unfamiliar names.

    Bear
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  4. #4
    Most of the core big cities have grown in population too, except for the obvious exceptions. But it looks like 15+ of the 20 largest cities in this country are growing in population.

  5. #5
    Cyburbia Administrator Dan's avatar
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    Great idea for a thread!

    Armchair planners in the Buffalo area often believe the lands that lay beyond the city limits are lily white. I think the 2010 Census numbers will change their mind. Due to geography more so than real discrimination, we're just starting to see African-Americans in Buffalo move to the suburbs. The largest concentration will likely be in Cheektowaga (Cleveland Hill, Pine Hill and Walden neighborhoods) and Amherst (areas west of Millersport Highway). There may even be a large number of suburban blocks, if not tracts, that will be majority African-American.

    There will likely be a lot of challenges from communities that are still developing or stable, with numbers showing a population decline. I worked part time as an enumerator, and trust me, in the Buffalo area at least, the numbers are extremely accurate. Community leaders, elected officials and homers/boosters can't imagine that shrinking household sizes will be the primary reason for a population decline; that fewer people are taking up more space. A population decline doesn't always imply a population exodus.

    I think we'll also see massive increases in those reporting Asian or Indian/South Asian descent away from coastal cities. In the Buffalo area, the few Indians I saw were pretty much older couples "off the boat"; now I'm seeing a lot more acculturated and American-born Indians. EDIT: Seven people of Indian descent just walked through the door of the coffee house where I'm typing this from. See?
    Growth for growth's sake is the ideology of the cancer cell. -- Edward Abbey

  6. #6
    Cyburbian WSU MUP Student's avatar
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    Quote Originally posted by Dan View post
    Great idea for a thread!

    There will likely be a lot of challenges from communities that are still developing or stable, with numbers showing a population decline...
    I was talking to somebody at the Census Bureau's local office in Detroit once and for some reason our conversation drifted to the topic of challenges to the official numbers. One thing they told me which I thought was very interesting was that if a city successfully challenges their count and it will increase, there will be a corresponding decrease from another (or other) communities within the state. So, for example, if Detroit has an official count in the 2010 Census of 900,000, challenges saying that they should have 950,000 residents and the Census Bureau agrees, those extra residents will be subtracted from other cities (likely in the Detroit region like Warren, Livonia, Taylor...). I didn't ask what would happen if a state would challenge the statewide total. I didn't want the head of the guy I was talking to to explode.

    My predictions in the Detroit area? I think the city will have lost population but less than expected. The city was at 951,270 in 2000 and estimated at 910,921 in July 2009. I think people will be surprised and the city will have stayed above 900,000 and perhaps posted a small increase from the 2009 estimate. Of course, Detroit is one of those cities that will surely protest the official count and it will take months to get a final count. I think the Detroit MSA's population and household count will have posted only a small increase since 2000.

    Besides the basic citywide population and household numbers though, I am interested in the tract level data, especially for areas in Detroit downtown and along the Woodward corridor where, previously, there were very few residents or households but there was significant residential development over the past decade (of course, things have slowed down a lot since about 2007 or 2008).
    "Where free unions and collective bargaining are forbidden, freedom is lost." - 1980 Republican presidential candidate Ronald Reagan

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    Cyburbian DetroitPlanner's avatar
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    Quote Originally posted by WSU MUP Student View post
    My predictions in the Detroit area? I think the city will have lost population but less than expected. The city was at 951,270 in 2000 and estimated at 910,921 in July 2009. I think people will be surprised and the city will have stayed above 900,000 and perhaps posted a small increase from the 2009 estimate. Of course, Detroit is one of those cities that will surely protest the official count and it will take months to get a final count. I think the Detroit MSA's population and household count will have posted only a small increase since 2000.
    From where I sit I can't see how Detroit isn't 15 percent smaller. There are a lot more abandoned areas. These more than make up for any new development that has taken place in the area surrounding the CBD. On my block alone there are probably about 15 vacant homes out of 40. These were full in 2000. My neighborhood is considered one of the better ones!

    I am sure that most suburbs have shrunk too. Therefore I can't see anyone wanting to decrease thier numbers. It will be interesting to see how this plays out.
    We hope for better things; it will arise from the ashes - Fr Gabriel Richard 1805

  8. #8
    Cyburbian Emeritus Bear Up North's avatar
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    Census numbers that I think will be interesting include counts for Fort Worth, Raleigh-Durham, and Fargo. Fort Worth because its' growth is tied to the economic success (survivor) that Texas appears to be; Raleigh-Durham because its' significant growth appears tied to our scientific future; Fargo because its' the gateway to North Dakota, a state with positive economic news all through this recessionary period.

    Bear
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    Super Moderator kjel's avatar
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    Several cities in the central NJ region are expected to top 100K with this census. Also I am looking forward to see how the demographics have changed in this area since it is a destination for overseas immigrants and many NJ natives have moved out. I'm surprised that nobody has mentioned how the numbers will affect the political districting. I think NJ will lose on US Representative.
    "He defended the cause of the poor and needy, and so all went well. Is that not what it means to know me?" Jeremiah 22:16

  10. #10
    Cyburbian illinoisplanner's avatar
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    Quote Originally posted by Bear Up North View post
    Census numbers that I think will be interesting include counts for Fort Worth, Raleigh-Durham, and Fargo. Fort Worth because its' growth is tied to the economic success (survivor) that Texas appears to be; Raleigh-Durham because its' significant growth appears tied to our scientific future; Fargo because its' the gateway to North Dakota, a state with positive economic news all through this recessionary period.

    Bear
    Regarding North Dakota, I actually hear that the state continues to lose population, as people have fled the state for most of the decade, due especially to the lack of economic opportunities in many of the rural areas. Fargo may be one of the lone exceptions though as it is an urban center, but I don't think they've gained that much. Maybe a few thousand. True, the Plains have weathered the Great Recession quite nicely, but I don't know if they've actually gained that many people over the course of the decade. I think more substantial growth has occurred in other metros of the Plains though, like Sioux Falls, Omaha, Lincoln, Kansas City suburbs, Wichita, Oklahoma City, and of course most cities in Texas.

    -----

    One thing that I'm interested to see is how the demographics have changed in the suburbs. Between 1990 and 2000, my area grew like gangbusters, but the demographics still implied it was lily-white. Between 2000 and 2010, the area continued has continued to grow (most of the growth occurring in the early part of the decade) but now it seems like there are more minorities in the area, and so I expect to see some rises in all of the minority categories. Maybe small increases, but increases nonetheless.

    Another thing I'm interested in is the population change for the city of Chicago proper. From 1990 to 2000, a surprise increase in population occurred which was largely attributed to gentrification as well as immigration. I believe that the current population estimates show a decline in population now since 2000, but I'd be curious to know if this is actually the case. It seems like Chicago continued to grow and gentrify throughout the 2000s and immigration continued to occur, but I think some of the immigration was straight to the suburbs, bypassing Chicago. So, it will be interesting to see the official results. I'm confident that the Chicago metropolitan area as a whole grew pretty substantially though, now flirting with the 10 million mark.
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  11. #11
    Cyburbian jsk1983's avatar
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    Quote Originally posted by illinoisplanner View post
    Regarding North Dakota, I actually hear that the state continues to lose population, as people have fled the state for most of the decade, due especially to the lack of economic opportunities in many of the rural areas. Fargo may be one of the lone exceptions though as it is an urban center, but I don't think they've gained that much. Maybe a few thousand. True, the Plains have weathered the Great Recession quite nicely, but I don't know if they've actually gained that many people over the course of the decade. I think more substantial growth has occurred in other metros of the Plains though, like Sioux Falls, Omaha, Lincoln, Kansas City suburbs, Wichita, Oklahoma City, and of course most cities in Texas.

    -----

    One thing that I'm interested to see is how the demographics have changed in the suburbs. Between 1990 and 2000, my area grew like gangbusters, but the demographics still implied it was lily-white. Between 2000 and 2010, the area continued has continued to grow (most of the growth occurring in the early part of the decade) but now it seems like there are more minorities in the area, and so I expect to see some rises in all of the minority categories. Maybe small increases, but increases nonetheless.

    Another thing I'm interested in is the population change for the city of Chicago proper. From 1990 to 2000, a surprise increase in population occurred which was largely attributed to gentrification as well as immigration. I believe that the current population estimates show a decline in population now since 2000, but I'd be curious to know if this is actually the case. It seems like Chicago continued to grow and gentrify throughout the 2000s and immigration continued to occur, but I think some of the immigration was straight to the suburbs, bypassing Chicago. So, it will be interesting to see the official results. I'm confident that the Chicago metropolitan area as a whole grew pretty substantially though, now flirting with the 10 million mark.
    Gentrification has also pushed many working class families out. I live in the western end of Lincoln Square which has seem some gentrification. The building I live in seems to be a mix of working class Hispanic immigrants and young professionals. I'm under the impression that most of the units in my building are studios or one bedrooms but there are some families crammed into the unit. As people move out the landlord renovates the unit probably increases rent and the new tenants are probably going to be young singles or couples. On the other hand we have new condo developments which have often replaced empty or non-residential lots. On the other hand with rising rents more people may be seeking out roommates... My guess is the population of Chicago hasn't changed all that much.

  12. #12
    Cyburbian Emeritus Bear Up North's avatar
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    Noticed that Michigan is the only state to lose population when comparing the census data from 2000 and 2010. Just a half-percent but still a visible acknowledgement of the state's economic troubles. Haven't seen the numbers for within the state but I would guess the following.....

    Traverse City area with significant population growth.
    Upper Peninsula (except Marquette) with declining numbers.
    (Obvious) City of Detroit with staggering losses.
    Metro Detroit probably slightly up.
    Built-up area just north of City of Toledo corporate limits (that is part of Detroit Metro) = slightly up.
    Flint, way down.
    Saginaw, moderately down.
    Ann Arbor, modestly up.

    Just sayin'.

    Bear
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  13. #13
    Cyburbian illinoisplanner's avatar
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    More Census numbers are in! I was excited that more detailed data is now available for Illinois and Indiana. The numbers are expected to slowly be released over the course of the decade. Unfortunately, the data seems hard to access, so I have relied on newspaper websites and such, since they do the homework for you and just post the raw population figures for the local areas.

    Some things are surprising, others are not.

    Here's some interesting random things I found:

    Overall, population growth wasn't as much as predicted. Many of the 2010 figures were increases from 2000, but were often slightly lower than estimates or special censuses taken in the past 3 years or so. For example, Homer Glen had recently acquired home rule status since a special census taken a few years ago showed they had passed the 25,000 mark, but now it has dipped below that mark, which could strip them of their status (and the extra funds that come with it), unless voters vote to remain home rule.

    No surprise to see big growth gains in the far north, northwest, west, and southwest suburbs of Chicago. My home county, McHenry County, went up to about 305,000, up from 260,000 in 2000. Although, the figure was about 15,000 shy of what recent estimates were showing. Algonquin, Lake in the Hills, Woodstock, and McHenry continued their growth, gaining a few thousand people each (and all now post populations of about 24,000 - 30,000 each), but Huntley was the biggest gainer, going from 5,000 to 24,000 in the past 10 years.

    Nearby Kane County grew even more, going from 400,000 to 515,000. Elgin is now officially a boomburb, having climbed to about 108,000. Just west of Elgin, places like Gilberts and Pingree Grove went from sleepy hamlets of a few hundred to booming suburbs of around 5,000 people. In the southern part of the county, Aurora also grew a ton, climbing to about 197,000, more than officials there had expected. Further south, Kendall County was the fastest growing county in the state percentage-wise, going from about 50,000 to 115,000, a more than 100% increase. Will County gained the most in numbers, going from 500,000 to 677,000. Joliet continued to grow to almost 150,000, an increase of about 40,000 people. Almost all of the far southwest suburbs posted significant gains, including Yorkville, Oswego, Montgomery, Plainfield, Romeoville, Bolingbrook, Crest Hill, Lockport, Shorewood, New Lenox, Mokena, and Frankfort. Many of these places gained between 5,000 and 15,000 people each. I was most surprised to see that Plainfield now has 40,000, up from 13,000 ten years ago.

    Population gains in DuPage and Lake Counties were smaller. Boomburb Naperville only grew slightly, gaining about 20,000 people to a current population of about 140,000. In far northwest Lake County, places like Round Lake, Antioch, Wauconda, and Lakemoor grew pretty substantially, Gurnee climbed past 30,000, and Vernon Hills climbed past 25,000 to achieve home-rule status. But otherwise, nothing new.

    Cook County's population went down slightly...no surprise there. Many northwest suburbs and north shore communities saw population losses, as they have become landlocked and their populations have aged, despite continuing to see OK economies. These places included Arlington Heights, Schaumburg, Buffalo Grove, and Highland Park. Some places grew a bit though, like Wheeling and Palatine, thanks to increases in the hispanic population and aggressive downtown condominium development. Some of the more economically-challenged southern suburbs lost a few thousand each, including Harvey, Dolton, Calumet City, and Chicago Heights. I'm not suprised at all. Meanwhile, places in the far southwestern reaches of the county continued to grow, with both Orland Park and Tinley Park growing to more than 50,000 each and wealthier black suburb Matteson climbing to nearly 20,000. No surprises there. I was surprised, though, to see that some places like Oak Lawn and Blue Island actually went up a bit. I was most surprised to see that Chicago lost about 200,000 people. It's still ranked number 3 nationally, but I was shocked that the city population went down by that much! I was expecting maybe only half that.

    In Lake County, Indiana, Gary, Indiana lost 20,000 people and now only has 80,000 people. Hammond has actually now eclipsed Gary to be the largest city in Northwest Indiana, if by just a few hundred people. This doesn't come as a big surprise, but it is crazy to think that Gary once had 178,000 people, only about 50 years ago or so. Other suburbs grew though, including Merrillville, Hobart, and Porter County communities Portage and Valparaiso, the latter of which climbed past 30,000.

    In the Rockford area, Winnebago County gained some, but the biggest grower was Boone County, going from 42,000 to 54,000, spurred by exurban growth, just east of Rockford.

    Downstate, populations were pretty stable overall and most places posted only slight increases. College towns grew though, giving places like DeKalb County (Northern Illinois University), McLean County (Illinois State), and Champaign County (University of Illinois) some pretty good gains, of about 15,000 - 20,000 people each, over the past 10 years.
    Last edited by illinoisplanner; 20 Feb 2011 at 2:29 PM.
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  14. #14
    A few interetings things so far:

    San Antonio is now bigger than Dallas.

    75% of the population growth of Texas was due to growth of the Hispanic population.

    Was the drop in population in Chicago partly explained by a drop in households? If so, that might reflect gentrification.

    The original urban renewal plan for Gary Indiana called for the displacement of 100,000 of it's then 160,000 population. They may have got what they wished for.

  15. #15
    Cyburbian illinoisplanner's avatar
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    Quote Originally posted by Gotta Speakup View post
    A few interetings things so far:

    San Antonio is now bigger than Dallas.

    75% of the population growth of Texas was due to growth of the Hispanic population.

    Was the drop in population in Chicago partly explained by a drop in households? If so, that might reflect gentrification.

    The original urban renewal plan for Gary Indiana called for the displacement of 100,000 of it's then 160,000 population. They may have got what they wished for.
    Wow, can't believe San Antonio is bigger than Dallas now. That just seems weird. It is believable though, since San Antonio has a lot more room to grow. I also understand Houston has grown a lot (not surprised) and is right on Chicago's heels.

    Regarding Chicago, I definitely think gentrification is a major factor. Additionally, I think some parts of the city are still experiencing some urban decay and some flight to the suburbs. Also, due to gentrification, I think many immigrants are settling in the suburbs moreso.

    With Gary, they may have gotten the displacement, but certainly not the renewal. I went there to see the minor league RailCats baseball team play (and yeah, the stadium is lovely), but driving down U.S. 20, the city looked horrible. Everything was abandoned and decayed. It looked like it had been through a war or something.
    "Life's a journey, not a destination"
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  16. #16
    Cyburbian Rygor's avatar
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    My community got some numbers in and our population growth was about what I had projected. The county grew as a whole, too. The only thing I was a bit surprised by was our housing vacancy rate, even though we do have a high number of multi-family as a proportion of our total housing units.
    "When life gives you lemons, just say 'No thanks'." - Henry Rollins

  17. #17
    Cyburbian TexanOkie's avatar
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    Quote Originally posted by Gotta Speakup View post
    San Antonio is now bigger than Dallas.
    I believe this was the case in the 2000 Census, as well. It makes sense, since San Antonio covers over 120 sq. miles more land than Dallas does, and is not "landlocked" by other municipalities like Dallas is. Metropolitan statistics for San Antonio vs. the Dallas Metropolitan Division of the DFW Metro Area show Dallas still handily in the lead.

    Both are way behind Houston, though.

  18. #18
    Cyburbian Emeritus Bear Up North's avatar
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    St. Louis

    Final census numbers were released for Missouri. Interesting article in the St. Louis newspaper. Attached.

    http://www.stltoday.com/news/local/m...4dda1fe35.html

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    Cyburbian WSU MUP Student's avatar
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    Anybody else on here hate the new American Fact Finder site?
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    moderator in moderation Suburb Repairman's avatar
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    Quote Originally posted by WSU MUP Student View post
    Anybody else on here hate the new American Fact Finder site?
    My experience with American Fact Finder 2 eventually concluded with a new record for the number of f-bombs in a single sentence. I'm not sure I've ever been so frustrated with a database program.

    "Oh, that is all well and good, but, voice or no voice, the people can always be brought to the bidding of the leaders. That is easy. All you have to do is tell them they are being attacked and denounce the pacifists for lack of patriotism and exposing the country to danger. It works the same way in any country."

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    Cyburbian Plus Whose Yur Planner's avatar
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    Quote Originally posted by illinoisplanner View post
    With Gary, they may have gotten the displacement, but certainly not the renewal. I went there to see the minor league RailCats baseball team play (and yeah, the stadium is lovely), but driving down U.S. 20, the city looked horrible. Everything was abandoned and decayed. It looked like it had been through a war or something.
    I remember driving with my grandpa through Gary to get his check at the Mills. I remember the shot up houses, trash, abadoned cars and this was in the 70's. The throught that ran through my head was dang, I didn't know war had been declared.

    As for the NW Indiana suburbs, you need to throw in Crown Point as well. CP has been a suburb since the 70's when the doctors, lawyers and the such moved out there. The sprawl now extends all the way to Valpo and is starting to get that undending city feel along US 30.
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    Cyburbian The One's avatar
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    Well.....

    Quote Originally posted by Whose Yur Planner View post
    I remember driving with my grandpa through Gary to get his check at the Mills. I remember the shot up houses, trash, abadoned cars and this was in the 70's. .
    I was in South Philly in the early 90's and saw a similar scene Bombed out buildings, carS up on blocks everywhere and a gunshot or two I was visiting from Washington DC, so it was like going from RJ's back yard to Rumpy's desk fort....enough shock and awe for everyone on every level
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  23. #23
    Among large US cities reporting so far: Chicago, New Orleans, St. louis, Baltimore down in population. Denver, Portland Or, Seattle, San Antonio, Dallas, Austin, Houston, and Las Vegas, Indianapolis up.

  24. #24
    Cyburbian TOFB's avatar
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    Pols are pissed we missed 100K by 315. They insist the USCB is wrong. They are not.

  25. #25
    Cyburbian Rygor's avatar
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    Quote Originally posted by TOFB View post
    Pols are pissed we missed 100K by 315. They insist the USCB is wrong. They are not.
    At least you didn't lose population. Be thankful for that.
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