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Thread: 2012 elections: your state-by-state picks

  1. #1
    Cyburbia Administrator Dan's avatar
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    2012 elections: your state-by-state picks

    Obama 303, Romney 235



    My picks for Michaelskis' picks. Obama 173, Romney 365.



    Growth for growth's sake is the ideology of the cancer cell. -- Edward Abbey

  2. #2
    OH....IO Hink's avatar
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    Iowa and Virginia to Romney. Otherwise, I agree.

    284 Obama
    254 Romney
    A common mistake people make when trying to design something completely foolproof is to underestimate the ingenuity of complete fools. -Douglas Adams

  3. #3
    Cyburbian WSU MUP Student's avatar
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    322 Obama
    216 Romney

    Most like Dan's map but Iowa and New Hampshire going for Romney and Florida going for Obama.
    "Where free unions and collective bargaining are forbidden, freedom is lost." - 1980 Republican presidential candidate Ronald Reagan

  4. #4
    Cyburbian
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    The map I've been going with looks just like Dan's. Although Florida appears to be a true toss up at this point, I'll give it to Romney.

  5. #5
    Cyburbian Raf's avatar
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    where did you make the cool map dan? I wanna play!
    follow me on the twitter @rcplans

  6. #6
    Cyburbian Brocktoon's avatar
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    Obama 277
    Romney 261

    Obama wins OH, IA, and NV
    Romney VA, CO, NH and FL

    I think OH, NH and CO are going to be very close and the counts could stretch out for the next few days.

    For the sake of people's sanity I the outcome is determined with a great degree of certainy tonight.
    "If you don't like change, you're going to like irrelevance even less" General Eric Shinseki

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    Cyburbian Wannaplan?'s avatar
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    I saw this map by Rove on Fox News last night,

    http://rove.com/uploads/0000/0740/Ro...Prediction.pdf

    He has Romney at 285 and Obama at 253. Ohio is so very important, and if that state goes to Obama, then those 18 Electoral College votes put him at 271.

    Reminds me of November 2006 on the eve of those midterms when I heard Rove declare on NPR, "You may end up with a different math, but you're entitled to your math. I'm entitled to the math." He had said that the 2006 polls indicated a Republican Senate and a Republican House.

    Rove was wrong, here is what Wikipedia says about the 110th Congress, "The Democratic Party controlled a majority in both chambers for the first time since the end of the 103rd Congress in 1995. Although the Democrats held fewer than 50 Senate seats, they had an operational majority because the two independent senators caucused with the Democrats for organizational purposes. No Democratic-held seats had fallen to the Republican Party in the 2006 elections."

  8. #8
    Cyburbia Administrator Dan's avatar
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    Quote Originally posted by Raf View post
    where did you make the cool map dan? I wanna play!
    cnn.com. Have to do a screen capture and edit, though.
    Growth for growth's sake is the ideology of the cancer cell. -- Edward Abbey

  9. #9
    moderator in moderation Suburb Repairman's avatar
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    I put this together on another site I'm a member of as my prediction.

    Popular vote:
    Obama: 48%
    Romney: 46%

    Electoral College:
    Obama: 290
    • gets Ohio by a fairly easy margin that slightly exceeds the national popular vote; Romney can't overcome the auto bailout issue, which swings traditionally purple Cinci & Columbus blue this year. I just don't think this race is as close as pundits on both sides would have you believe.
    • gets Wisconsin, which will be the 2nd closest race of this election. In this case, the whole anti-union thing bites the Republicans in the ass. It isn't that Wisconsin is "pro-union," its that Walker stepped a little too far out there and caused backlash that carries this election. Basically, Romney loses a state he would have otherwise won because of the actions of other Republicans. This will be discussed amongst pundits as a demonstration of the importance of tackling major reforms like this incrementally, and that politicians should be careful in judging an election a "mandate" from a notoriously fickle electorate. Had Walker taken a smaller bite on pushing back against unions, then I think Romney would have gotten Wisconsin
    • gets New Hampshire, simply because I think it follows the rest of New England this year
    • gets Nevada, where it again comes down to union support
    • gets Colorado in the closest state race of the bunch. In this case, Gov. Hickinlooper's 60% approval rating as a democrat gives Obama the edge by association. Look for this race to be decided by less than 1%

    Romney: 248
    • in Florida, social conservatism wins out with existing seniors, who aren't really interested in Medicare, Social Security, etc. as long as the benefits they already get are not affected. Current seniors don't care about future seniors, so those issues don't weigh particularly heavy with the blue hairs in Florida. They know no politician would dare do anything to people already receiving those services.
    • gets Virginia because Democratic northern Virginia doesn't come out as energized like they did in 2008. Virginia is a very purple state though and will probably become the preeminent swing state in future elections, eclipsing Ohio, Florida & Wisconsin

    "Oh, that is all well and good, but, voice or no voice, the people can always be brought to the bidding of the leaders. That is easy. All you have to do is tell them they are being attacked and denounce the pacifists for lack of patriotism and exposing the country to danger. It works the same way in any country."

    - Herman Göring at the Nuremburg trials (thoughts on democracy)

  10. #10
    Cyburbian michaelskis's avatar
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    Quote Originally posted by Dan View post

    My picks for Michaelskis' picks. Obama 173, Romney 365.



    That is way too much blue... Romney takes IL and HI...





    In all reality, I think that it will be super close with Ohio deciding the election. Obama will win by 10 points, but Romney will with the popular vote. Not the outcome I want to see, but it is what I think will happen.
    "A long habit of not thinking a thing wrong, gives it a superficial appearance of being right, and raises at first a formidable outcry in defense of custom. Time makes more converts than reason." - Thomas Paine Common Sense.

  11. #11
    Cyburbian Tide's avatar
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    Romney:
    VA
    CO
    FL

    Obama:
    NV (slim)

    Swing states: these are my gut feeling and after watching polls and other empirical data
    OH - Romney by <.5%
    PA - Obama by <1%
    NH - ???
    Wisconsin - ??? Obama?


    MSkis - I also agree, if Obama pulls out a win I don't think he'll have popular vote, and even if he does, he won't have over 50%. I thought it would be a GOP win when that happens for the first time (Electorial vs. Popular split) but it could be the other way around.
    @GigCityPlanner

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