I live in a suburb of a city of just over 100,000 people. We were near 140,000 at one point, city proper. Given the current climate especially, is it ever possible for a city our size to attain the ranks of America's top cities? What does it take to get there?
You did not define a "top city". I nthink you need a history to be counted.
by "top city", I mean the top 50 to top 100 populated areas in America. Currently, the metro area is 280,000 people, virtually unchanged since the 1970s. Strangely, the metro is at it's peak while the seat of the City of Erie shrank.
It depends on the city, its location, larger economic and societal forces, weather, political leadership, and their lucky convergence.Originally posted by ctkid
In 1950, Austin, Charlotte, Albuquerque, Orlando, Colorado Springs, and Las Vegas were barely on the radar screen of the national consciousness. Today? Yeah.
A long time ago, we had a thread predicting the next cities that would rise out of obscurity to become the next major metro. If I had to take a wild ass guess as to what obscure-ish cities would be the heart of a 500,000+ resident metro in 2050, I'd go with Las Cruces, Fort Collins, Grand Junction, and Coeur D'Alene,
Growth for growth's sake is the ideology of the cancer cell. -- Edward Abbey
Mine happens to be located in the snowbelt. Does that matter a lot? Keep in mind that my city also has a heritage with manufacturing industry, it was an early industrial hub.
What about Minneapolis/St. Paul? It snows there right?
I'm just asking because of "what if" and sometimes I wish this can happen to my area someday. I can only dream.
I think Dan hit this one just right- there are cities that rise and cities that fall. The trend seems to be that the rising cities are in the south, southwest and mountains. Northeastern and northwestern cities seem to be holding their own but not rising up in the ranks.
As for the snow issue, it is a real one. However, it snows in the mountains too.
I think the most likely cities to rise up the ranks of relevance and national consciousness are those that are in the right location, the right climate (south, west), higher ed resources, offers a high quality of life, or have some attractive intrinsic quality about them that has yet to be discovered by the vast majority. Think of the smaller to medium-sized metros that might appeal to (and I hate to use this term) the "creative class".
Most likely to rise up to that status using my own personal crystal ball?
Bozeman, MT
Billings, MT
Spokane, WA
Eugene-Springfield, OR
Fort Collins, CO
Santa Cruz, CA
Santa Barbara, CA
Greenville, SC
Knoxville, TN
"When life gives you lemons, just say 'No thanks'." - Henry Rollins
The Twin Cities economy and setup is totally different than most "cities where it snows". The Twin Cities value things many other "snow cities" don't value and that attracts people. I think those intangible elements create a stronger pull to offset the bad weather.
If you're goal is to just build standards suburbs you'll never get to the top. You need something truly unique and different and use that as your method to develop. Identifying that and getting buy-in from your decision-makers is the hard thing.
I burned down the church to atone for my transgressions.
Check out many of the Phoenix suburbs. Chandler, Gilbert, Glendale and Peoria were all small farm cities 30 years ago and now all are in the top 100 cities in the US. Mesa has been in the top 100 for awhile and is now bigger than Pittsburgh, Atlanta and Miami in terms of population.
I think the same is true form many of the 'burbs around Dallas and Houston. Small communities 20-30 years ago and now are in the top 100 of population.
"If you don't like change, you're going to like irrelevance even less" General Eric Shinseki
I think anything is possible, but look at the city and figure out if there is something that will get people to move there. Law Vegas has good weather, construction jobs, and tourism jobs. Most of the sun belt cities replace tourism with some other industry. I think places like Detroit might be dying because of an over dependence on manufacturing (I'll let the MI planners out there correct me). There has to be some kind diversity to attract people and manufacturing just isn't it.
Need a planner? Why not Dvd?
I've long argued that size doesn't matter (!). No one in their right mind would ever compare Mesa to Minneapolis, Atlanta, or Miami in terms of culture, education, businesses, and importance on the national stage.
I burned down the church to atone for my transgressions.
You are correct...its not the size but how you use it that matters.
I have met people in their right mind that make that comparision...they do it to illustrate how far behind Mesa is when it comes to the items you mentioned. IF you have not heard of the Mayor Smith of Mesa you will in the next few years.
Mesa does not fare well when even when compared to like size suburbs like St. Paul, Ft. Lauderdale, Oakland, Tacoma etc. They are taking steps to get there but they have squandered the past 30 years and are only know thinking what they need to do to be a great community.
"If you don't like change, you're going to like irrelevance even less" General Eric Shinseki
Well, I think Erie area should at least work to attract hard-working and talented young people.
@ctkid - Austin TX was once a small country town. Lots of things must happen but basically your city has to attract jobs. People migrate to where the jobs are so if your Chamber of Commerce starts enticing businesses to put plants, customer service centers, and other business operations in your city people will have to move into fill the jobs.
Austin has not been a small country town since the 1950's and has had a double digit growth rate since it was created. Companies migrate to where skilled people are located. Almost every community tries to attract jobs but if you cannot create the work force then it is a wasted effort. Plus also does not hurt when you have a worldclass university and a having a large government job base; almost 1 in 5 jobs in Austin are public sector jobs.
"If you don't like change, you're going to like irrelevance even less" General Eric Shinseki
If we're talking about Erie, well ... I really don't think it has much hope of growing into a larger metro, much less recapturing former glory. What assets does Erie have that nearby Cleveland, Pittsburgh, and Buffalo don't have? It has the disadvantages of being in the Rust Belt -- the economic and cultural baggage -- along with the lack of a critical mass of some kind to build on, whether people, young creative types, a certain type of industry, or whatever.
I really don't see any emergent cities coming out of the Rust Belt in the next several decades, at least on the US side of the border. My wild-ass guess outlook:
First tier
Chicago - capital of the Rust Belt. Continued slow growth.
Second tier
Detroit - struggling to find relevance in a post-automotive era. If it weren't for the auto industry, Detroit would probably be among the third-tier cities.
Cleveland - stabilizing.
Pittsburgh - stabilizing.
Third tier:
Buffalo - stabilizing in the Buffalo/Erie County area, Niagara Falls will continue its decline.
Rochester - slow growth.
Columbus - slow growth.
Indianapolis - slow growth.
Milwaukee - slow growth.
Fourth tier:
Syracuse - stabilizing.
Toledo - ?
Scranton/Wilkes-Barre - ?
Grand Rapids - will eventually join the third tier cities in relevance.
Fifth tier:
Erie - treading water.
Lansing -
Fort Wayne -
Utica -
Binghamton - treading water.
Youngstown - continued decline.
Flint - continued decline.
Growth for growth's sake is the ideology of the cancer cell. -- Edward Abbey
Dan, I would almost consider Columbus second tier at this point. It's one of the few cities that is growing moderately in population and is increasing in relevance.
I'd also include Madison on the list, and maybe that's one that has the potential to make it to the big ranks someday. I could see it passing up Milwaukee in 30-50 years just like Columbus has Cleveland.
"When life gives you lemons, just say 'No thanks'." - Henry Rollins
Okay, maybe true, but every community needs to try and attract some types of business at least.
Name a community or region which has near zero business.
Saint Paul is not a suburb - it's the capital of MN and a completely different city, both economically and culturally, than Minneapolis. And that's my point, just expanding your city borders to accommodate more people (Jacksonville, Mesa, etc) doesn't make you more important. If anything you need amenities (and neighborhoods that support them) in order to be relevant.
I burned down the church to atone for my transgressions.
hello i'm a guy from Nepal..U live in a country that is quiet well developed..It has got plans, government policies, educated manpowers and alll....This is why ur region has a great chance to become one of the top cities...Well i live in Nepal and i want to tell u that i see no development in my place due to lack of government policies......
One thing is that both Columbus and Madison are still able to and very actively annex land, allowing a lot of their respective metros' development to be within their central cities rather than in the suburbs, while Milwaukee, Cleveland - and Erie, cannot.
Yes, I know that the GE Transportation Systems Division (locomotive) plant property abuts the City of Erie's corporate limits but is outside of the city, however it is in a period of decline as GE has been steadily shifting their production to other states (typical Rust Belt thing at work).
How different would the Erie area be, especially from an economic development standpoint, if the entire metro area was in the city?
Mike
Eh, sorry to bump. But the Erie area happens to be very boring and backwards thinking. That's why I posted the OP.
We are the most un-competitive in every area, like TV news and that sort of thing.
I want to move to somewhere more forward-thinking but I don't want to abandon my hometown at the same time, as it's my hometown I want to see it prosper again someday.
We are so minor and insignificant it's an embarrassment.
Erie? Wheres that?
"When life gives you lemons, just say 'No thanks'." - Henry Rollins
Erie? Wheres that?
ERIE: We're Not Ashtabula.
It needed to be done.
Growth for growth's sake is the ideology of the cancer cell. -- Edward Abbey
I needed that
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