Major metros 2050

[Dan]

Fifty years ago, Las Vegas was a tiny speck on the map. Now, that metro region is home to some 1,500,000 residents. Same thing with Orlando, Colorado Springs, Albuquerque, Tucson, and Phoenix.

Fifty years from now, what specks on the map do you see as being major cities -- metro areas that would be approaching 1,000,000 residents? My short list ...

• St. George, Utah
• Las Cruces, New Mexico
• Fort Collins/Loveland, Colorado (which will grow to be "independent" from Denver in the same way Colorado Springs is now.
• Naples, Florida
• Grand Junction, Colorado

Any thoughts?

[Cardinal]

St George and Colorado Springs. I can see that, although to be honest, I don't want to. They've already changed so much in the last 10-15 years. I'd hate to see them overwhelmed by sprawl. How about Des Moines, IA?

[giff57]

Michael Stumpf wrote:
St George and Colorado Springs. I can see that, although to be honest, I don't want to. They've already changed so much in the last 10-15 years. I'd hate to see them overwhelmed by sprawl. How about Des Moines, IA?

I attended a session at the Upper Midwest Conference that would suggest that Des Moines will be a new urban center. The idea was that bio-engineering will make the corn belt the new center of gravity for the GNP of the future.

[poncho]

San Marcos - Austin Area in Central Texas The Centroplex. Basically all of Highway 35 between San Antonio and Dallas

[el Guapo]

...once lived in the Great Central Texas Metroplex! Until the ATF burned us out!

[teflondon]

Boise, ID.

Massive growth in the 90s. No signs of slowing down. No water concerns, unlike the rest of the west.

[Lee Nellis]

Serious water wars will have to be fought before St. George or Grand Junction reach even a quarter million. And Boise does have water worries, unless a) Idaho adopts the Arizona policy of taxing water used for agriculture to favor urban development, and b) the salmon issue just vanishes. I think the most likely of Dan's list to get large (though I doubt a million) is Las Cruces. Don't forget about the Spokane-Coeur d'Alene area as a growth center, either.

[boiker]

giff57 wrote:


I attended a session at the Upper Midwest Conference that would suggest that Des Moines will be a new urban center. The idea was that bio-engineering will make the corn belt the new center of gravity for the GNP of the future.

i was at that same conferance, and at that same presentation.

it was specifically focused on the collar around chicago. rockfrod through the quad cities.

I know of one central illinois community that could benefit wildly from bio-ag.

Peoria. large navigable river, established soybean and corn refiners already, the federal ag research lab. etc..

don't know if it will become a 'boom' town. but. it should grow in the next 30 years at a decent clip.

[J Church]

i could be wrong, but i grew up an hour from grand junction and i don't remember ever hearing of it having water issues. there were occasional proposals to flood nearby canyons, but more for recreation and water to *sell* to denver or las vegas ... and god knows there's plenty of room to sprawl out across that valley floor (and local willingness to do it, a few, um, 'tree-huggers' aside )

[pwright1]

Houston, Dallas, Atlanta, Phoenix, Miami

[The Irish One]

Calexico will have 7 million + inhabitants.

[pete-rock]

I'm thinking that the political and economic tide in the state of Michigan is moving away from Southeast MI (Detroit and more importantly its suburbs) and toward western MI, and the beneficiary of that will be... Grand Rapids.

Grand Rapids is already around 200,000 in the city proper and 1 million in the metro area, and exceeds the rest of the state in growth rate. In 2050, maybe there's 400,000 in the city and 2.5 million in the metro area.

[jresta]

I see the panhandle of West Va. (Harper's Ferry) booming from the pressure of DC. Same with western MD. Eastern Shore too. I think the new guv. has the Eastern Shore in his sights! Salisbury will be the new boom town.

Allentown already but Scranton too, long neglected and isolated, are also likely to pick up on the NYC/NJ exodus. They could easily top 1million. If NJTransit comes through with restoring the rail links consider it a done deal.

did i mention that NJ will be built out in 15 years +/- depending on which way the economy goes.

I wonder what the sprawl lobby will say then?

"NJ is anti-growth! they still have one million acres of parkland left!"

[bocian]

Grensboro, NC metro area? A lot of growth down there...

[biscuit]

Originally posted by bocian
Grensboro, NC metro area? A lot of growth down there...

You're right about having a lot of growth but I think that Greensboro already has a metro population of over 1 million. Just imagine how big it will be in 50 years - Central North Carolina will likely be completely urbanized by that point.

It's possible that Hilton Head Island, SC metro could grow to that size in fifty years, especially if the state follows through with plans to build a new deep-water 'super-port' in the area. But unfortunatly it will likely be a sprawling mess like every other growth area in that state.

[bocian]

Well, if North Carolina will be totally urbanized, would not urbanization really hit places such as Savannah, GA and Charleston, SC? I think those cities might - at least together reach over 1 million population...

[Wulf9]

It's probable that most of the above will be major metros by 2050. It's not hard to guess that areas growing like mushrooms in a dank cellar will continue to grow apace.

So what's your guess for places that aren't now in a rapid growth mode that will be 1,000,000 + in 2050. Which "specks on the map" will grow like Las Vegas?

[biscuit]

Originally posted by bocian
Well, if North Carolina will be totally urbanized, would not urbanization really hit places such as Savannah, GA and Charleston, SC? I think those cities might - at least together reach over 1 million population...

I don't know a lot about development in Savannah but you are right about Charleston being a high growth area (I lived there for 5 years). I would be suprised however, if it has over 1 million people in 50 years. The Charleston MSA currently has a population of 500k (about half as large as the biggest MSA in SC) so it would take some major new growth pressures to reach 1 million in the near future. Although anything's possible.

[bocian]

Lexington, KY...

[H]

Originally posted by bocian
Lexington, KY...

Is the land around the city not protected to conserve the blue grass? And will Lex really get "dense urban"?

I am truly asking.

[bocian]

Land might be protected - but it will get more dense inside AND outside the city, definitely.

And land protection might not stop sprawl or curb suburban growth - even Portland, OR can't manage suburban expansion, it's like you put all these people in a jar and you try to close the lid, but they still manage to "spill" out and start new "jar" colonies aroung the big jar... Maybe not the best analogy, but it works for me..

[H]

Originally posted by bocian
Land might be protected - but it will get more dense inside AND outside the city, definitely.

And land protection might not stop sprawl or curb suburban growth - even Portland, OR can't manage suburban expansion, it's like you put all these people in a jar and you try to close the lid, but they still manage to "spill" out and start new "jar" colonies aroung the big jar... Maybe not the best analogy, but it works for me..

...actually I like that analogy.