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Thread: is crime on the rise?

  1. #1
    Cyburbian jresta's avatar
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    is crime on the rise?

    As the recession drags on does it seem like things are getting worse in your city?

    Or am i just watching too much evening news?

    Maybe it's just because the war is "over" and terrorism is passé that the media outlets are looking for new headlines but it seems like some really nasty crimes have been grabbing the spotlight lately.
    Indeed you can usually tell when the concepts of democracy and citizenship are weakening. There is an increase in the role of charity and in the worship of volunteerism. These represent the élite citizen's imitation of noblesse oblige; that is, of pretending to be aristocrats or oligarchs, as opposed to being citizens.

  2. #2
    Cyburbian biscuit's avatar
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    I don't remember the specific numbers but I remember reading a report that the crime rate has increased over last year. The biggest increase was in theft and bank robbery, which I guess is to be expected in times of high unemployment.

  3. #3

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    We've had some nasty murders in the City I work. Not sure the city where I live has seen much of a rise in crime.

  4. #4
    Cyburbian donk's avatar
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    We have not had a murder here in almost three years (or is it four) in my City. Butwhen one happens it is usually pretty grisly and odd.

    As for crime, I think that it is the same as always, just reported more.
    Too lazy to beat myself up for being to lazy to beat myself up for being too lazy to... well you get the point....

  5. #5
    Cyburbian Planderella's avatar
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    Violent crime has always been a problem in New Orleans. If my memory serves me correct, it peaked at 400+ murders in the mid-90's (1994). Even though the numbers have decreased over the years with massive changes in the police department, murders are on the rise again. Blame it all on the drugs.
    "A witty woman is a treasure, a witty beauty is a power!"

  6. #6

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    Crime has been up here. The number of murders has increased, but I don't know about other violent crimes or property crimes.

    The police chief announced his "retirement" effective later this summer, and there have been rumblings that the increase in crime is behind his forced retirement.

    The big issue here has become "police redeployment". The Mayor wants to transfer more experienced officers, currently working in light crime precincts, back into the city's higher crime precincts. The police union is resisting, saying that vet officers earned the right to be where they are. Meanwhile, crime rises in the bad areas.

    It looks like it'll be a fun summer here.

  7. #7
    Cyburbian Emeritus Chet's avatar
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    Gang related crimes have been making the news alot around here. Other than that, just sickos and wierdo as usual. But then again, Wisconsin is doomed to hell anyway.

  8. #8
    Cyburbian bocian's avatar
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    That depends on the location, and I mean even your location WITHIN a particular city. Statistsics don't mean much unless they touch you personally and/or can be applied.
    If I get robbed in Baltimore, then crime IS horrible there, although the statistics might show D.C. is worse..
    So.. whatever...

  9. #9
    Cyburbian SGB's avatar
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    yes, and no

    Just the facts, ma'am. (Courtesy of our friends at the FBI)
    All these years the people said he’s actin’ like a kid.
    He did not know he could not fly, so he did.
    - - Guy Clark, "The Cape"

  10. #10
    Cyburbian jordanb's avatar
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    I understood the recent Chicago murder rates to be related to a gang war that has been caused by the housing projects going down. Gangs that used to rule them have suddenly found themselves with no place to go.

  11. #11

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    Originally posted by jordanb
    I understood the recent Chicago murder rates to be related to a gang war that has been caused by the housing projects going down. Gangs that used to rule them have suddenly found themselves with no place to go.
    From what I've heard from police officers, there is some truth to the notion that drug related crimes are up because competition is up among gangs and dealers. But I don't know if it's related directly to the loss of public housing.

    Most of the drug sales/gang crimes have been (for years) and continue to be in areas where there is little public housing -- Englewood and Garfield Park, for example.

  12. #12
    Cyburbian Mud Princess's avatar
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    Originally posted by jresta
    As the recession drags on does it seem like things are getting worse in your city?

    Or am i just watching too much evening news?
    I believe that nationally, the rate of violent crime has been declining for years. But the TV news media can't seem to find anything else to talk about (corporate malfeasance? hunger in Africa? planning projects?), further perpetuating our Culture of Fear.

  13. #13
    Member Wulf9's avatar
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    I think you see a lot more crime on the eveneing news whether or not the crime rate is up. Crime reporting takes a limited amount of reporter time, so is less expensive to produce. It doesn't take any imagination, so less experienced reporters can do the reports. Finally, the media is avoiding investigative journalism with so much vigor that they need something to fill their air time.

  14. #14
    Cyburbian jordanb's avatar
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    Yeah, I did some stats on Chicago some time ago. I think it worked out that, assuming murders are completely random (which they aren't by a long shot), a person's chance of getting murdered in a 70 year lifetime was just under 2%. Crime is an unhealthy obsession of suburbanites, and I think the media is primarily to blame.

    Also, it seems to me that suburbanites lack the ability reasonably assess risk. I like to use the beltway sniper as an example. The Economist did a rundown on how likely somebody in the DC suburbs were to be killed by a sniper. It was some absurdly low number, but that didn't stop parents from pulling their kids out of school and people from hiding in their houses quaking with fear.

    Again, I think the problem is the media, crime is simple and easy to cover. It's all emotion, they don't have to deal with all of those nasty details like the real issues, so they bounce from crime to crime with zeal looking sullen and indignant and crying crocodile tears.

  15. #15
    Cyburbian Habanero's avatar
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    I know we're higher than last year, but they report more on child drownings which are also unfortunately on the rise.
    When Jesus said "love your enemies", he probably didn't mean kill them.

  16. #16
    Cyburbian Cardinal's avatar
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    Originally posted by jordanb
    a person's chance of getting murdered in a 70 year lifetime was just under 2%.
    I'm always a little leary of statistics like this. Some people's lifestyles or living conditions make them more likely to be repeated victems of crime, whereas others may be far less likely to be targets. Is that a person's chance of getting murdered just once or does that number include people who might get murdered more than once during their lifetime?

  17. #17
    Cyburbian jordanb's avatar
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    I took the number of murders in the city last year, divided by the population, and multipled by 70. Notice that I said it's only realistic if you assume muders are completly random. What it does show is an extreme upper end to the chance that J. Random middle-class city dweller (who isn't involved in gangs, drugs, or organised crime) has of getting murdered.
    Last edited by jordanb; 17 Jun 2003 at 12:23 AM.

  18. #18
    Cyburbian Emeritus Chet's avatar
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    So the 70% thing is chicago only? What is the statistical basis here?

    Sounds like the "guns and ass cream" spurius relationships taught at some local schools...

  19. #19
    Cyburbian jordanb's avatar
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    Um, 70% of what? I took the murder rate for a population for one year, which assuming a random system will be the probability that any one person in the population will be murdered, and simulated a 70 year lifetime in that population by multipling the probability for one year by 70. The answer was actually 1.6% (I just checked it).

    I chose Chicago because I live here so I was most interested in crime here (go figure). Also Chicago is a very large central city with a relatively high murder rate, and I wanted to show how ridiculous the suburban fears of the "inner city" are.

  20. #20
    Cyburbian Emeritus Chet's avatar
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    I took the murder rate for a population for one year, which assuming a random system will be the probability that any one person in the population will be murdered, and simulated a 70 year lifetime in that population by multipling the probability for one year by 70. The answer was actually 1.6% (I just checked it).

    Yeah, thats what I thought. Guns and ass cream.

    Spurious relationships at best. I hope your minds isnt this flacid when you graduate with a masters. Otherwise, *sigh* I'll have to side with Kuntsler for the second time in my life.

  21. #21
    Cyburbian jordanb's avatar
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    Chet, do you have a specific problem with my methodology? Do you disagree that it establishes a rough upper-bound for the probability that someone living in Chicago but not partaking in risky behavior has of getting murdered?

    I ran it by my boss (who has a couple of masters, one of which is in statistics). He said that it sounded all right for a 'back of the napkin' calculation except that the murder rate was constant over the simulated lifetime, and the aforementioned assumption that murders were random, which seemed a bit dubious but wouldn't be fixable without a lot of work. I can check it with him again when he gets back from DC on Monday if you wish.

  22. #22
    Cyburbian Emeritus Chet's avatar
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    Originally posted by jordanb
    Chet, do you have a specific problem with my methodology?
    Yes.

    Originally posted by jordanb
    Do you disagree that it establishes a rough upper-bound for the probability that someone living in Chicago but not partaking in risky behavior has of getting murdered?/B]
    Yes.

    Originally posted by jordanb I ran it by my boss (who has a couple of masters, one of which is in statistics). He said that it sounded all right for a 'back of the napkin' calculation except that the murder rate was constant over the simulated lifetime, and the aforementioned assumption that murders were random, which seemed a bit dubious but wouldn't be fixable without a lot of work. I can check it with him again when he gets back from DC on Monday if you wish. [/B]
    So your boss admits the falacies of the 'back of the napkin' statistical assumptions and the... yadda yadda... *yawn* this is boring.

  23. #23
    Cyburbian jordanb's avatar
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    Oh that's very helpful ... and mature.

    The point was that he agreed that it gave a resonable number. At any rate, even if the actual probability is double my number, that's still only a 3.2% chance in a lifetime. My point was that murder should not be something people should be worried about, even living in a "high crime" city, it's just very likely if you're not participating in risky activities. I wanted to show that people shouldn't worry so much about the crime. I think that that calculation does that.

  24. #24
    Cyburbian Emeritus Chet's avatar
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    Originally posted by jordanb
    Oh that's very helpful ... and mature.
    Well if I'm given a comforting set of assumptions I might be so inclined as well. But... HELLO! REALITY! Get the heck out of collegiate social thoery and get your butt into reality!

    And on that note, Good Lord, get a freaking backbone! Skeleton our resident 18 year old Chilean cyburbanite will go toe-to-toe with our best masterdebater (pun intended) EG, and he wont back down. For gods sake, you rely on the word of a prof? Pathetic. Good luck getting a job outside of academia (or linux land). I hear there's a fun get together for you types (UFO CHicago Night At George's!).

  25. #25
    Cyburbian Plus PlannerGirl's avatar
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    On talk radio this AM the news was all about how DC crime has gone way up (violent crime) rapes and murders but non violent crime is down.

    ill see if i can find the written report

    PG
    "They who can give up essential liberty to obtain a little temporary safety, deserve neither liberty nor safety." Ben Franklin

    Remember this motto to live by: "Life should NOT be a journey to the grave with the intention of arriving safely in an attractive well preserved body, but rather to skid in sideways, chocolate in one hand, martini in the other, body thoroughly used up, totally worn out and screaming 'WOO- HOO what a ride!'"

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