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Thread: Future Trends in Land Development

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    Future Trends in Land Development

    What trends do you think will have the biggest impact on land development and construction in the next 50 years? Telecommuting and new urbaism would be examples. I'm trying to put together a comprehensive list.

  2. #2
    Cyburbian Cardinal's avatar
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    An aging population leading to

    1) housing being built for greater accessibility (one-level)

    2) housing being built for lower maintenance (more multi-family condos and luxury apartments)

  3. #3
    Cyburbian Zoning Goddess's avatar
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    Everyone in New Jersey will move to Florida. Everyone in Florida will move to North Carolina.

    Back OT: Suburban sprawl will be the norm in FL. Building setbacks for single-family homes will be reduced from 7.5 or 5 feet to 2.5 feet. Beige will be the only color of house paint sold.

  4. #4
    Cyburbian Rumpy Tunanator's avatar
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    -Trends huh, well in 50 years I could see a water shortage problem in desert cities and so. cal, not to mention flordia due to groundwater sources being overcharged resulting in saltwater intrusion.
    -So I predict a great migration of population back to the Great Lakes region, or the use of expensive desanination plants for coastal states, or the diversion of water from lake superior through a canal to desert states by power from a nuclear plant to channel water through the locks (hey I've heard of this one before), or the world comes to an end by then.
    -I think cardinal made a great point about what to do with the growing elderly population. What will we due and how will we support the services associated with an elderly pop.?
    Also, the end of the auto era as gas prices are either to high, or all the oil is gone.
    -Last point, if sprawl continues at the current pace, farm land will become extinct and we will buy all our cloned food from china.
    A guy once told me, "Do not have any attachments, do not have anything in your life you are not willing to walk out on in 30 seconds flat if you spot the heat around the corner."


    Neil McCauley (Robert DeNiro): Heat 1995

  5. #5
    Member trishm1's avatar
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    Trends

    Maybe I am too optimistic, but I think adaptive reuse of industrial buildings will become a necessity as we ship more and more of our manufacturing jobs overseas, historic preservation will become a household word and we will all live happily ever after.[FONT=book antiqua]

  6. #6
    Cyburbian Rumpy Tunanator's avatar
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    Re: Trends

    Originally posted by trishm1
    Maybe I am too optimistic, but I think adaptive reuse of industrial buildings will become a necessity as we ship more and more of our manufacturing jobs overseas
    -Hopefully there will be more adaptive reuse instead of the wrecking ball, go Rumpy's Rampage!!!
    A guy once told me, "Do not have any attachments, do not have anything in your life you are not willing to walk out on in 30 seconds flat if you spot the heat around the corner."


    Neil McCauley (Robert DeNiro): Heat 1995

  7. #7
    Cyburbian boiker's avatar
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    Originally posted by Rumpy Tuna
    -Trends huh, well in 50 years I could see a water shortage problem in desert cities and so. cal, not to mention flordia due to groundwater sources being overcharged resulting in saltwater intrusion.
    -So I predict a great migration of population back to the Great Lakes region, or the use of expensive desanination plants for coastal states, or the diversion of water from lake superior through a canal to desert states by power from a nuclear plant to channel water through the locks (hey I've heard of this one before), or the world comes to an end by then.
    -I think cardinal made a great point about what to do with the growing elderly population. What will we due and how will we support the services associated with an elderly pop.?
    Also, the end of the auto era as gas prices are either to high, or all the oil is gone.
    -Last point, if sprawl continues at the current pace, farm land will become extinct and we will buy all our cloned food from china.
    the sw and other semi-arid regions will experience a major population decline. The great lakes and the eastern river areas will thrive. However, development patterns will not change until the main method of transportation changes.

    sprawl cannot continue at it's pace if the auto (fossil fuel driven) is abandoned.

    I doubt that we will have a farm land shortage with the technology we have available. Farmers are able to squeeze many more bushles from the same amount of land than even 20 years ago. The real squeeze happens when or if there is a mega economic shift from a massive depression, war, or some other combination of events.
    Dude, I'm cheesing so hard right now.

  8. #8
    Cyburbian H's avatar
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    The retirement of the Baby Boom generation

    = a growth in retirement communities, and maybe the bottom dropping out of suburbia when people like my dad decide they no longer want a lawn to look after. He is already looking at selling the Atlanta single family home and getting a couple condos. As of now he wants one in FLA and one in ATL, (because that is what his older brother and father did previously). I think this type of real estate trend will explode in the next decade as the BB’s retire.

    Urban features in suburban environments will be hot.
    "Those who plan do better than those who do not plan, even though they rarely stick to their plan." - Winston Churchill

  9. #9
    Cyburbian Rem's avatar
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    Originally posted by Rumpy Tuna
    Also, the end of the auto era as gas prices are either to high, or all the oil is gone.
    I think this is a really big one (I bet all the girls say that to Rumpy). It will be interesting to see if alternative fuels (hydrogen, CNG) allow car like vehicles to survive or whether something altogether different evolves.

    I agree that water will be a big issue, sooner than 50 years though. The result will be that "Water Sensitive Urban Design" will be second nature within 50 years. There will be built form implications from this - potable water harvesting, storm water and gray water reuse, ground water recharging, water use reduction etc.

    I suspect there will be an ageing population correction led by Government Policies trying to arrest western population decline (eg. paid parental leave, baby bonuses). The land development implications may include housing that provides for extended families and extra parental facilities (nannies quarters, retreats) as people with young children become a new elite.

    Segway lanes.

    I can't imagine what new, useless products the digital age will have us trying to accommodate in our homes and workplaces by 2053 - 3D televisions for video conferencing and watching the superbowl from centre field?

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    Cyburbian tsc's avatar
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    The cost of electricity will be an issue too... those areas that have been settled due to low energy costs enabling them to climate control (air condition) may not be able to afford to continue to do so.
    "Yeehaw!" is not a foreign policy

    Renovating the '62 Metzendorf
    http://metzendorf.blogspot.com/

  11. #11
    Cyburbian Jeff's avatar
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    Is anyone familiar with Levittown in PA?

    What was once a thriving suburban neighborhood is now two steps away from ghetto.

    The suburban fad will end someday, leaving acreas and acres of run down housing developments.

  12. #12
    Cyburbian
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    Yep, the ring of decay around cities will move farther out as everyone moves from their entropic vinyl villages back to the grander, sturdier houses in the inner rings. Transportation will also be an issue; the older suburbs were usually designed to accomodate some form of mass transit while the newer ones aren't.
    And all food will come in tubes, and we'll wear shiny silver suits.
    I don't dream. I plan.

  13. #13
    Cyburbian donk's avatar
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    Redevelopment of "power centres" and big box sites. Similar to today's brown field developments, "asphalt" field redevelopment will be an issue in the future.

    The good news is that there should not be the environmental nightmares of redeveloping retail spaces as is being found on former industrial lands.
    Too lazy to beat myself up for being to lazy to beat myself up for being too lazy to... well you get the point....

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    Cyburbian tsc's avatar
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    Originally posted by Plannerbabs

    And all food will come in tubes, and we'll wear shiny silver suits.
    I am ahead of my time.... in my shiny silver suit!
    "Yeehaw!" is not a foreign policy

    Renovating the '62 Metzendorf
    http://metzendorf.blogspot.com/

  15. #15
    Unfrozen Caveman Planner mendelman's avatar
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    If, as projected, the oil energy economy declines dramatically, then I see two positive alternatives:

    1. We will either greatly scale back our form of development, to be more pedestrian/human scaled (which will be very tough for many people to deal with)

    or

    2. The federal government, under pressure from everyone, will develop an alternative energy research blitz on the order of the WWII Atomic weapon Manhattan Project. This will be necessary to create a power source as versatile and (formerly) plentiful as fossil fuels.

    If the Manhattan thingy doesn't work, then we will have to scale back, and the mass sprawls around cities will surely become enormous wastelands.

  16. #16

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    Remember that scene from "Back to the Future" were Michael J. Fox goes to the alternate 1985 where Biff controls the world and his neighborhood is a total ghetto - that's my vision of what most of America will look like in 50 years. Except that Biff seems to be running the show today!

    also:
    - SUV's will be the size of a semi truck, and will be powered by human feces.
    - the SW will be abandoned, the north will be overpopulated. Farming, fishing, logging, and any other natural resource-based ways of life in these areas will be kaput because there will be no land left.
    - There will be two classes in America: The landed aristocracy and the Prolitariat, because there will be no more blue-collar jobs where someone can make a decent wage. Jobs will all be either white collar or service-indusrty-wage-slave-type jobs.
    - Wal-Mart will be renamed Mall-mart, reflecting the ability of consumers to have every single service provided to them in one place. Haircut, car repair, dentist visit, dry cleaning, pharmacy, grocery, tattoo parlor, restaurant, and town offices all in one place. Every other competitor will be defunct. Mall-mart will be the way of life, and will control the government (because of its economic leverage) and the people (because they'll all be its wage slaves).
    - global temperatures will be 10 degrees warmer, and all major world cities will be underwater (because they're all near water). The rest of America will be a vast desert.
    - All food will be GMO and will be grown hydroponically in mines below Rosendale, NY.
    - given the above points, average life expectancy will be 25 years. Kids will start worknig at age 10, because companies will need workers for at least 15 years.
    There will be 12 species of life left on the planet: People, dogs, cats, roaches, rats, and a few genetically engineered food species. Livers of the poor will be a delicacy for the rich.

    I'm not even joking about ANY of this! (ok, maybe just a little)

  17. #17
    Cyburbian Rumpy Tunanator's avatar
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    Now that I think about it, I'll be lucky if I'm still around in the year 2053. Hopefully they'll be able to cryogenically freeze me soon so I can see the future.
    I think cities will have to be more dense and in order to heat these cities, there will be a great reclaimation of wood from suburban homes.
    Also the number of alcoholic robots will be on the rise as Benders hit the market.
    Oh I almost forgot, the big one (earthquakes, not Moththra or Godzilla) will hit California resulting in the state sinking into the sea, unless the governator can stop it.
    A guy once told me, "Do not have any attachments, do not have anything in your life you are not willing to walk out on in 30 seconds flat if you spot the heat around the corner."


    Neil McCauley (Robert DeNiro): Heat 1995

  18. #18
    Cyburbian Budgie's avatar
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    My prediction -- MORE OF THE SAME OLD S#$T. Downtown here I come. The younger generations will move to inner-cities to enjoy the chaotic nightlife, loft living, and public spaces that include orgy pits filled with whip cream.

  19. #19
    Cyburbian Queen B's avatar
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    I predict that there will be a collapse in parts of the real estate market that will take a good portion of that 50 years to recoop from. All of you are concerned about big box building, what about these big houses that are being built. Although they are more energy efficient than the old Victorians, don't any of you remember the energy crisis when not only could you not get gas for your car but you almost couldn't give away a grand victorian. Do you not remember when people laughed at you for owning a gas guzzling Chevy Suburban (not that I ever owned one). (Sorry Suburban owners).
    I believe the availability of energy will power growth and thus the lack thereof will kill it.
    It is all a matter of perspective!!!

  20. #20
    Cyburbian ludes98's avatar
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    Originally posted by Budgie
    ...and public spaces that include orgy pits filled with whip cream.
    That doesn't sound so bad.

    Originally posted by Rem
    I agree that water will be a big issue, sooner than 50 years though. The result will be that "Water Sensitive Urban Design" will be second nature within 50 years. There will be built form implications from this - potable water harvesting, storm water and gray water reuse, ground water recharging, water use reduction etc.
    I agree. Several cities here are finally "getting it" here. Reclaimed water is already used on alot of golf courses, and new lines are in the works to provide reclaimed water to homes and commerical uses alike. Water issues will be more important than lack of fossil fuels.

  21. #21
    Cyburbian Cardinal's avatar
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    Retail will be incredibly different than it is today. Thanks to the pervasive internet, with world-wide wireless coverage, we won't be making trips to Wal-Mart. The retail shopping that do survive will be specialty retail, hearkening back to the way it was a century ago. Companies like Amazon and Wal-Mart-Net will still meet most of our shopping needs, delivering product directly to our homes and offices within hours of the order being sent. As a result, the big boxes of today will shrink in number, and become warehouse/distribution centers more than retail stores.

  22. #22
    Member steveanne's avatar
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    In 50 years...

    Chicago O'Hare airport has now taken over Elk Grove, Bensenville, Des Plaines, Park Ridge, Rosemont, and parts of Mount Prospect and Niles in its quest for more land. Skokie residents complain of the noise coming from the jumbo airport.

    Orlando becomes "Disney's Orlando" as a robotic Michael Eisner laughs at mere mortals. Orlando is sponsored by SunTrust Bank and Lockheed Martin.

    Upstate NY figures out how to effectively cure their sprawl problem. Hahahahah.... Just kidding about that one.

  23. #23
    Cyburbian Planderella's avatar
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    People will continue to complain about sprawl, but will still move further out in search of the spacious lots they can't get in the city.
    "A witty woman is a treasure, a witty beauty is a power!"

  24. #24
    Cyburbian
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    For the one's that have seen the movie "Brazil" Directed by Terry Gilliam, now that's the future... sadly...

  25. #25
    Cyburbian jresta's avatar
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    Originally posted by Mike D.
    Is anyone familiar with Levittown in PA?

    What was once a thriving suburban neighborhood is now two steps away from ghetto.

    The suburban fad will end someday, leaving acreas and acres of run down housing developments.
    I agree completely with the second part but for the time being the first part isn't even close to being true. Houses in the PA Levittown sell for above what similar houses in surrounding communities fetch. The Levittown across the river - now called "Willingboro, NJ" - has slightly lower property values compared to the surrounding municipalites but as discussed in a different thread a few months ago it could be a function of race in the real estate market . . . Willingboro, NJ being majority black even though their average household income is slightly higher than their PA counterparts in the lily-white Levittown.
    Indeed you can usually tell when the concepts of democracy and citizenship are weakening. There is an increase in the role of charity and in the worship of volunteerism. These represent the élite citizen's imitation of noblesse oblige; that is, of pretending to be aristocrats or oligarchs, as opposed to being citizens.

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