Axis of Evil #'s 2&3

[Seabishop]

It looks like Iran is close to their first nuclear weapon. North Korea may already have nuclear weapons and might be crazy enough to use them on us or Seoul.

I know our government doesn't want to ruffle any feathers at this point but its a little scary the way we are publicly concerned with Iraq while these 2 countries are rolling up their sleeves. [How we let Korea get this far I'll never understand].

The Question: What should we do? Negotiate? Carry out pre-emptive strikes on nuclear facilities? Go it alone? Gather international support for a few years? Start worshiping the "Dear Leader of East Korea"?

 

[Wannaplan?]

The Question: What should we do?

Smoke a joint, kick back, and forget about the world while we consider the Jewel becoming Christina? thread.

 

[biscuit]

You're right, these situations are unnerving.

IMO, Iran is not really a direct threat to the US. The country has a growing democracy movement and a very young population. In fact, one of the reasons we are probably in Iraq is to flex our muscles to dictatorial terror sponsoring states in the region. The Iranian public will be watcing and lot of what happens in the future there will rely on our success in building a sustainable democracy in Iraq. So I see Iran as one of those cases where we should use the Talk softly but carry a big stick approach. Try to open up and warm relations but make the Mullahs know what could happen if they step out of line.

North Korea on the other hand is a whole other, and much scarier creature. This is a country that most likely would use nukes if it percieved itself to threatened. The only real long term solution to neutralizing the North Korean threat without a war is to let the South Koreans take the lead and encourage more re-unification talks.

Just my opinion. If I actually knew how to solve these problems I wouldn't be a city planner right now... I would be the despot I was meant to be, ruling the world with an iron fist.

 

[Greenescapist]

The Question: What should we do? Negotiate? Carry out pre-emptive strikes on nuclear facilities? Go it alone? Gather international support for a few years? Start worshiping the "Dear Leader of East Korea"?

Those situations are both tough. Who knows what could happen. It defintely seems like Bush has toned down his rhetoric towards Iran and N Korea since things haven't been going so smoothly in Iraq. I guess we should just monitor the situation, keep up the spying so we know what they've actually got (real intelligence, not that bogus crap we tried to get away with in Irag) and try to use the international community to condemn the nuclear weapons building. I think we need to get Russia and China more involved against N Korea and everyone involved against Iran. We certainly cannot do an Iraq-style invasion... that would be a disaster.

 

[michaelskis]

I do not think any one would be stupid enough to blow us up, knowing that the US still has lots of Nuclear wepons, and could wipe out an entire country in an afternoon.

 

[Cardinal]

the US still has lots of Nuclear wepons, and could wipe out an entire country in an afternoon.

Chant with me...

USA! USA! USA!

 

[el Guapo]

I do not think any one would be stupid enough to blow us up, knowing that the US still has lots of Nuclear wepons, and could wipe out an entire country in an afternoon.

I think the stupid list is very long. Don't count on the threat of a tritium boosted ass kicking to talk sense into a dictator. Some folks just need killing. We need to let North Korea know that if one of their nukes fly we go nuclear and genocidal. We kill all life North of 38 to the Chineese border. Sorry, but that is the message we need to state real clear like. Be a crazy ass in your country - past that and you ask for total destruction. This message also keeps others in check.

(sorry South Korea - your relatives in the North may all have to die)

 

[The Irish One]

I am very concerned about North Korea

First off, there is no way the US will do a full scale military attack against Iran like we have done on Iraq. The Iran military is far to organized and there is a bigger fish to fry to the east, N. Korea. In the south east corner of Turkey the Israeli air force does practice and presumably reconossaince missions near and over Iran every day. This air force is large, we're talking serious military business here and the message is clear. Israel (The US) will not tolerate any nuclear proliferation in the region. So expect tactical air raids on Iran in the coming future and full blown covert CIA ops to throw this government on its ass. Clerics know what to look for so any special ops from intelligence will probably fail.

North Korea is the real deal. I think the most possible scenario that will lead to war is when the US blockades the outgoing freight ships searching for a softball sized chunk of plutonium, uranium and a couple of other fissile substances. Of course the US would be searching the ships because of krypton gas being detected over land. It's a scary scenario any way one looks at it. The North Koreans could very well have sold some fissile material to some thugs with the know how, materials and patience to detonate it in Los Angeles, New York, SF, DC -take your pick of crowded important cities. Prediction: The US will be rocked with a rogue nuclear attack on one of our great cities within ten years. But, back to war with N. Korea. We can win the war undoubtedly. The losses will be massive to S. Korea -one million in an hour! It's easy to understand why any administration would want to beat the diplomatic path until somehow it works. A couple of constants to keep in mind S. Korea doesn't want to go to war for the reason above and China doesn't want war because of the mass migration that will take place. In the end we know N. Korea will not keep its word. I fear a war with this country is inevitable. Can we expect sane behavior from an administration that starves 10%-15% of their fellow citizens, of course not. Families starve to death in the countryside, young feeble innocents are put to work in slave camps only to be rewarded with hunger, torture and finally death - City dwellers are untrusting of each other for fear of being accussed of disloyalty to the "Dear Leader" for any reason. There is a reward system for turning in the disloyal, yes, you might feed your family that evening for finding the traitor, or maybe you'll get some heating oil so your children don't freeze for that day. There is no light at the end of the tunnel as long as Kim Jong Il and his cronies are in power. I believe this is the first catastrophic war to come in the 21st century -though I hope I'm wrong.

 

[SkeLeton]

I'm all against nuke-ulear (sorry couldn't pass on that joke ) warfare, hence the Dear Leader must be stopped in a quick and effective way, hopefully not nuclear. I wouldn't doubt that there would be international support to prevent a nuclear war with North Korea, and I wonder why did the US waste all that time in Iraq when there was a bigger problem brewing in N. Korea... Sure N. Korea doesn't have oil, BUT THEY HAVE NUKES!

Sadly, peace isn't an option when it comes to dealing with morons and lunatics, which is the case in N. Korea...


BTW: When you're in N. Korea kicking a$$, kick some South Korean a$$ too (only the ones oposing the Free Trade Agreement between Chile and South Korea ) (j/k)

 

[giff57]

Re: Re: Axis of Evil #'s 2&3

Smoke a joint, kick back, and forget about the world while we consider the Jewel becoming Christina? thread.

Either that or apply for that job in Kuglutuk. You'd probably be pretty safe from fall out way up there.

 

[Wannaplan?]

Re: Re: Re: Axis of Evil #'s 2&3

Either that or apply for that job in Kuglutuk. You'd probably be pretty safe from fall out way up there.

Naaah... I've got my neighbor's fallout shelter for protection. Plenty of bright grow lights working down there right now.

 

[gkmo62u]

Irish, great points.

But doesn't your breakdown lead directly to a preemptive strike as the only option?

I would support that, would you?

 

[Greenescapist]

But doesn't your breakdown lead directly to a preemptive strike as the only option?

I would support that, would you?

No f-ing way! What do you think the Russians and the Chinese would say about us firing missiles into one of their neighbors? I think they'd be pissed off to say the least. Our best bet would be to be vigilant with spying and engage the Chinese, the Russians and Seoul to put diplomatic and economic pressure on them. Maybe this way we can get them to settle down.

 

[The Irish One]

Under certain circumstances I support a preemptive strike ie. the selling of fissile material. The opposite of my statement is true as well. There are times when a preemptive strike is not permissive. Right now is a great example and the future really depends on how much China is willing to make demands on N Korea. I think it's safe to conclude N Korea accepted the terms of the meeting in September as a result of China scaling down aid to Kim Jong Il ie. cutting back on oil flow, spare parts and perhaps grain shipments.

I

 

[gkmo62u]

But the threat is not to China and Russia is it? The threat is to the West Coast of the United States and a major friend in South Korea.

Greenscapeist, the head has got to come out of the sand. The North Koreans have at least agreed to meet with a multi-lateral group--Russia Japan China US South Korea.

But to take the preemptive option of the table is not in the best interests of the American people. I am ok with making the Russians and Chinese a little mad if it saves, oh, a million Californians.

 

[Greenescapist]

But the threat is not to China and Russia is it? The threat is to the West Coast of the United States and a major friend in South Korea.

Greenscapeist, the head has got to come out of the sand. The North Koreans have at least agreed to meet with a multi-lateral group--Russia Japan China US South Korea.

But to take the preemptive option of the table is not in the best interests of the American people. I am ok with making the Russians and Chinese a little mad if it saves, oh, a million Californians.

Of course it's threatening to Russia and China, too. It's a rogue country right on their borders with nuclear weapons! Russia and China both have major internal conflicts (Chechnya and Taiwan) and would not want to be seen as being pushed around by N Korea. Plus, with nuclear technology in the hands of such a crazy dictator, the risk escalates that it could get into the hands of crazy rebel forces in, say, Chechnya.

I do understand the threat to the US - but the threat is out there to other countries as well and we cannot go it alone in countering it. That's all I'm saying.

 

[el Guapo]

....I do understand the threat to the US - but the threat is out there to other countries as well and we cannot go it alone in countering it. That's all I'm saying.

Why not? Why do we have to have someone else's permission to take a bad guy down? I agree that we should try to build a coalition first, but if they don't come along, then we should do nothing? I think this total reliance on multilateral initiatives is BS. It is just a form of political cowardice. Sometimes you got to fight a bully without back up. Who gives a damn what Russia or China thinks as long as they respect our strength afterwards. Russia and China aren’t exactly allies’ folks.

One of these days North Korea is going to implode and many many people are going to die. We can either hasten this act before they have more capability or we can wait and let it occur on their terms. North Korea is a nuclear cancer upon the world body. You don’t appease cancer. You cut through healthy flesh to get to it and you burn it out. Otherwise it kills you eventually.

 

[Duke Of Dystopia]

I believe that the Chinese and the Russians have clearly recieved the message that if they don't help solve the N Korean issue, they had better stay out of the way when we do it.

I can't believe the Chinese would continue to support such a dangerous situation from thier nominal crazy cronies the N Koreans. It does not help the chinese economy to let a war happen on thier border that is likely to go nuclear:

If americans are building war toys, they are not buying cheaply produced chinese products.

If american influence should grow in that part of the north east asian sphere, it does not help the chinese economy.

If the Japanese should be forced to remilitarize its nation with nuclear and amphibious forces, the Chinese economy does not profit due to increased defense spending.


My prediction is that the Chinese will force the NK into a deal.

My alternate prediction is that we will find out how well radiation enhanced weapons (Nutron Bombs for you peacenics) work to cut the head off of a snake.

 

[Tom R]

Re: Re: Axis of Evil #'s 2&3

. I think we need to get Russia and China more involved against N Korea and everyone involved against Iran. We certainly cannot do an Iraq-style invasion... that would be a disaster.

I agree. We need to lean on China. They like to sell us their trinkets tell them to rein in their mad dog.

The North Korea government thrives on the threat of external demon i.e. US. To confront them directly especially with name calling and other stupid remarks just strengthens their power base.

 

[The Irish One]

But the threat is not to China and Russia is it? The threat is to the West Coast of the United States and a major friend in South Korea.

The threat is most definately first and foremost on the United States. It's where that softball sized chunk of fissile material will probably find itself first. I think it's easy for US citizens to forget how much of a target we are. Every empire has its challenger's and at this time in history the challengers are invisible with lots of know how and skill in Nuclear tech. America it is coming (I say with prophetic emphasis) Did anyone listen to the newest Ayman Al Zawahiri statement -I don't know about you but I really believe what this guy says.

"But we tell America one thing: what you have seen so far is nothing but the first skirmishes. The real battle hasn't started yet."

He's not bull shitting us and even if this isn't Ayman it's still coming from really hell bent people with serious determination.

I would generalize the N. Korean's are willing to sell anything to anybody including 100 million muslim populace in West China and the muslims in CIS and surrounding states

 

[Wulf9]

It's interesting that, since Bush, we are thinking of the U.S. as the world police.

Three years ago, there would have been little or no discussion about who "we have to take out." It is also likely that we would have put together a coalition of opposition, rather than looking at unilateral action. Also, if some tiny fiefdom actually put together some nukes, they would probably nuke their neighbor, not the U.S. (I still think that's the most probable scenario).

But it's amazing how we have made ourselves (either in truth or in imagination) the nation that these renegade nuke powers would want to attack. I suspect it is imagination. But it allows an administration of military adventurists and (we as a people) to have these adventures.

 

[Seabishop]

It's interesting that, since Bush, we are thinking of the U.S. as the world police.

Three years ago, there would have been little or no discussion about who "we have to take out." It is also likely that we would have put together a coalition of opposition, rather than looking at unilateral action. Also, if some tiny fiefdom actually put together some nukes, they would probably nuke their neighbor, not the U.S. (I still think that's the most probable scenario).

But it's amazing how we have made ourselves (either in truth or in imagination) the nation that these renegade nuke powers would want to attack. I suspect it is imagination. But it allows an administration of military adventurists and (we as a people) to have these adventures.

It wasn't the election of Bush that has made us more vigilant it was the attack on the World Trade Center and Pentagon. Keep in mind the white house and capitol building were the targest of the planes that crashed into the Pentagon and in PA. We're not just dealing with your occasional suicide bomber here. These are acts of war.

North Korea thinks they need nuclear protection from us and they've dragged us into this. They are the ones who insist that we are the problem. Iran has been supporting terrorism for decades against us and others. I'm not saying we should rush over there and conquer them, but we are involved with these countries whether we want to be or not.

 

[el Guapo]

My alternate prediction is that we will find out how well radiation enhanced weapons (Nutron Bombs for you peacenics) work to cut the head off of a snake.

But didn't the government promise to get rid of all Neutron Bombs because the people protested their existence? Wink Wink Nudge Nudge.

Wulf9,
Are you willing to bet your children's lives on your uninformed hunch that it will happen to someone else? And your Okay with it happening to someone else as long as it keeps the "military adventurists" in their place here at home?

 

[Wulf9]

I don't want nuclear weapons used at all - in local disputes or against the U.S. The local disputes comment was an assessment of where nukes would likely have been used, not a desire to have them used somewhere else than here.

I am more willing to trust strong international alliances, good intelligence, and excellent homeland security, rather than unilateral military action which cuts us off from historic allies and focuses the rogue states attention on the U.S. as the enemy.

Terrorism is best fought by broad coalitions. Our unilateral military actions have weakened the coalition of allies we have had for decades.

Finally, we now have virtually all of our active military tied up in a war and occupation of a country which was a loose cannon but not an immediate terrorist threat. Now we are finding some true threats and don't have either the willing allies, willing diplomatic partners, or our own military forces as a reserve to take on those threats.

 

[biscuit]

Oh Crap

North Korea and Iran make a missile deal

 

[Duke Of Dystopia]

But didn't the government promise to get rid of all Neutron Bombs because the people protested their existence? Wink Wink Nudge Nudge.

The US promised not to put them in Central Europe (Germany) where the peace movement was so strong. I also am under the belief that the term "Nuetron Bomb" that was used as the standard vernacular was later "spun" to a more proper name and description, the "Radiation Enhanced Weapon".

Unfortunatly, I remain cinical about the whole concept of "PEACE" at any cost. An allie that fails to act under any circumstances is NOT an allie. People do not seem to understand that "Allies" are never permanant, and that alliances work only so long as they are mutually benificial. As a matter of course, Europe wants the united states to be half cripled, it keeps us from acting agressivly in economic spheres they consider thier own. Does that sound like an Allie?

Europe has been slow in acting before. Near the end of the war of 1812, the large European nations paid off arab muslim states for the right to trade and sail the trade routes in the Mediteranean and around Africa. Any nation not paying the "tribute" fee was officially at war with these arab muslim states. This fee kept non european nations out of thier "sphere of influence". Yanks couldn't pay the fee, a number of ships and crew were taken and enslaved. We Yanks decided to go to war. Remember the song section, "....To the shores of Tripoli". That is in reference to Yanks and a young nation kicking ass.

(historical note, we took tripoli by force, got our people back, apologized for it after paying a much smaller fee. Politicaly we lost. Militarily and economicly we won. We did not have to occupy north Africa, and never again did we have to pay any fee. Once this occured, European nations joined in the fight because the economics had changed).

Sounds familiar doesn't it. Two lessons I get from it:

1 Arab tribes understand a boot to the head better than any other language

2 Our friends are not necessarily our friends

 

[SkeLeton]

Now that's dangerous (the nuke deal between Iran and N. Korea)... Too bad people in Iran or North Korea can read the mandatory warning sign on the nukes that says: Not to be put near the hands of tyranical and insane people.

Personally I wouldn't scold on the US if they back away from Iraq to go fight North Korea (although the troops are quite near Iran, at least....)

 

[The Irish One]

Three years ago, there would have been little or no discussion about who "we have to take out."

No popular discussion, yes you're absolutely correct; however, the highly influential foreighn policy publications in the US have been hard at work for many years.

But it's amazing how we have made ourselves (either in truth or in imagination) the nation that these renegade nuke powers would want to attack. I suspect it is imagination.

I wish it was imagination. I think a good way for anyone to get their finger on the pulse of the threat is to look at unfavorable public opinion of the US in some of the nuclear threat nations. I would exclusively point towards Pakistan as the culprit for the dissemination of nuclear know how. Clearly the 90's were the booming years for sharing nuclear secrets to guys like Kim Jong Il and the Iranian clerics. But let's face it China and Russia have been giving N. Korea, Pakistan, Iran nuclear instructions for years. India is another story.

Look at US involvement in Pakistan, Iran, Saudi Arabia, Iraq, Egypt, Turkey, Afgahnistan, etc.. they're all predominantly muslim nations. Indigenous populations in these countries more often than not disagree, detest the USA for any involvement with their country. There is real action being taken by monied and educated people in the Muslim world to devastatingly injure the USA, if only to get the USA out of their region and governments. Not to just blow up a base in their own country, but to inflict serious damage to our homeland.