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build-out analysis

vaughan

Cyburbian
Messages
335
Points
11
All- I'm in the process of putting together a build-out analysis for part of our county... as I've never really done one before, i'm trying to collect good examples from around the county to compare methodologies.

I've done plenty of googling and gotten good results, but was hoping that i might get links (preferably- if not online, then the name of the county planning office would suffice) to counties out there that folks from the forum are familiar with and who have good examples of this- especially regarding how analysts have dealt with different constraints such as roads and streams.

Appreciate any help!
 

Budgie

Cyburbian
Messages
5,270
Points
30
I've worked on at least three build-out scenarios, which should be available on-line. Check the following FTP sites:

www.ourplanningworks.com/client_documents/jacksonville
www.ourplanningworks.com/client_documents/carroll_county
www.ourplanningworks.com/client_documents/wilmington
 

Budgie

Cyburbian
Messages
5,270
Points
30
Assumptions

You'll need to tailor your assumptions around local conditions, but here are the assumptions we used for Wilmington, NC.

*Land will be developed to it's full potential under existing zoning codes;
*No annexation will occur prior to 2020;
*No significant changes will occur to the City-County Comprehensive Plan or Unified Development Ordinance that would affect significantly land use intensity and density;
*No significant changes in technology will modify the impacts of development;
*Existing patterns of demand for public infrastructure will remain constant;
*15 percent (15%) of developable land will be dedicated as public right-of-way; and
*Platted parcels have existing right-of-way for access.

Using the GIS based parcel database we isolated vacant buildable land by:

* Isolating parcels located within the City limits; then
* Select parcels with an existing land use of agriculture, or which are unused or undeveloped; then
* Remove parcels that are owned by non-profit organizations and governmental entities; then
* Remove parcels that are too small for development; finally
* Subtract land area from parcels that have environmental (floodplain, wetlands, steep slopes) and legal (conservation easements) constraints to development.

We also looked at the development potential of underutilized parcels, which are defined as:

* Parcels where onsite improvements are less than 50% of the land value** and the use is a nonconforming single-family residentail use in a commercial or industrial zoned site; or
* Parcels where site improvements are less than 50% of the land value, and the site is used for single-family residential purposes and is over 5 acres in size.

** The 50% value came from Dr. John Kortecamp, Calculating Developable Residential Land Supply, AMERICAN PLANNING ASSOCIATION, PAS Memo. November 2001, at Pg. 2.
 

Budgie

Cyburbian
Messages
5,270
Points
30
vaughan said:
Wow- thanks a lot for the info... I really appreciate the detail, Budgie.

Drop me a PM and I can get you some more examples. A decent GIS is the key to making Build-out analysis or Growth Scenario Analysis work.
 

H

Cyburbian
Messages
2,850
Points
24
You might want to contact Pinellas County Florida (St. Pete). They claim to of reached full build-out and it has caused them some trouble from what I understand.
 

jresta

Cyburbian
Messages
1,474
Points
23
H said:
You might want to contact Pinellas County Florida (St. Pete). They claim to of reached full build-out and it has caused them some trouble from what I understand.

I would actually love to hear about this if anyone has more info on it. There are plenty of towns and even counties in this part of the country that are at "full build out" and have been for some time but the new growth has just been transferred to the suburbs.

In the case of Philadelphia we now have large vacant urban parcels again. But in some place like Florida where the development is already suburban and where the growth pressure is still intense it must be an entirely different ballgame.

My concern is that NJ is slated to become the first state to reach full build-out in about 15 years. What sort of forces will then be at play when people are trying to protect their suburban lifestyles but the market is demanding population growth?
Does the economy stagnate and people move out in search of work in other areas . . . a cycle of disinvestment, decay, and revitalization - not unlike our cities?
 

Wannaplan?

Bounty Hunter
Messages
3,221
Points
29
jresta said:
What sort of forces will then be at play when people are trying to protect their suburban lifestyles but the market is demanding population growth? Does the economy stagnate and people move out in search of work in other areas . . . a cycle of disinvestment, decay, and revitalization - not unlike our cities?

Good questions. My answer would be in two parts. First, home owners would recognize the demand for homes in their fully built-out community. They would then sell to the highest bidder. Viola! Suburban gentrification. Think of the increased taxes towns would get from increasing home valuations. Second, what about building up when you can no longer build out? The community would have to revise the zoning, and then the developers would arrive offering land owners gobs of cash. Again, folks will sell out and the landscape will have a whole new character.
 

jresta

Cyburbian
Messages
1,474
Points
23
Wanigas? said:
Good questions. My answer would be in two parts. First, home owners would recognize the demand for homes in their fully built-out community. They would then sell to the highest bidder. Viola! Suburban gentrification. Think of the increased taxes towns would get from increasing home valuations. Second, what about building up when you can no longer build out? The community would have to revise the zoning, and then the developers would arrive offering land owners gobs of cash. Again, folks will sell out and the landscape will have a whole new character.

except we already have dozens of built out municipalities and even a few counties and sure people sell to the highest bidder, and in some communities tearing down perfectly serviceable houses and building mcmansions on the lot are not uncommon.

my point is that people jealousy guard their suburbanism. They don't want condo's, the don't want anything over 3 floors, they don't want anything that remotely resembles "urban."

the problem here is that between the state's agressive open space preservation program and rapid suburban development the ENTIRE STATE will be built out. Not only will the state economy take a hit when the "new subdivision" industry grinds to a halt but there will still be massive resistance to "building up" and becoming more urban. The battle is already playing out along the new riverline.
 
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