• Ongoing coronavirus / COVID-19 discussion: how is the pandemic affecting your community, workplace, and wellness? 🦠

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Coronavirus and other pandemics

AG74683

Cyburbian
Messages
6,878
Points
34
I guess no one really knows how Georgia is doing, considering a lot of their charts and information have been intentionally misleading.


That said, it appears a large chunk of consumers opted to stay home in Georgia (https://www.pymnts.com/coronavirus/2020/georgia-push-reopen-falls-flat-consumers-stay-home/) and a lot of businesses simply ignored the order ending and stayed closed anyway.
 

Whose Yur Planner

Cyburbian
Messages
11,217
Points
37
My daughter is going back to work at the restaurant she was said off from. I gave her a mini lecture about wearing her mask and sanitizing her hands frequently. I also told her to text me after her shift. I'm worried about her and hope she stays safe.
 

Bubba

Cyburbian
Messages
5,230
Points
33
I guess no one really knows how Georgia is doing, considering a lot of their charts and information have been intentionally misleading.


That said, it appears a large chunk of consumers opted to stay home in Georgia (https://www.pymnts.com/coronavirus/2020/georgia-push-reopen-falls-flat-consumers-stay-home/) and a lot of businesses simply ignored the order ending and stayed closed anyway.
When did the Old Gray Lady devolve into clickbait? Anyhoo, possible DPH reporting ineptitude aside ("intentionally misleading" :roflmao: - good one), Georgia has hardly turned into Zombieland or had COVID mortality numbers spike. So, again, how's your doom-and-gloom BS prediction working out for you?
 

Hink

OH....IO
Staff member
Moderator
Messages
15,522
Points
48
When did the Old Gray Lady devolve into clickbait? Anyhoo, possible DPH reporting ineptitude aside ("intentionally misleading" :roflmao: - good one), Georgia has hardly turned into Zombieland or had COVID mortality numbers spike. So, again, how's your doom-and-gloom BS prediction working out for you?
It certainly isn't good. Is that what you are arguing? That it has turned out good?

I mean how many deaths are you okay with? Or do you mean that it is fine that Georgia alone has almost 40k cases in the last 3 weeks?

Doom and gloom is still pretty accurate, unless you are discounting the lives that have been lost or those who still could lose their lives, then maybe it is all roses!

Also, predicting this as anything but doom and gloom seems pretty irrational to me, especially since it has clearly been an unmitigated disaster on all fronts. Particularly on states that took their time to close, and likely for those that are cavalier on their opening. Truth be told, we won't know that until much later. Likely when lots of more people have died. What has been shown is that our country saved LOTS of lives by closing down. If we would have done it sooner we likely could have saved an additional 36,000. I won't put a price on lives, because that is just stupid, but I certainly would prefer we had those 36,000 people back.

I am always surprised that people are so comfortable putting others at risk, because they don't think anything is "that bad", or the numbers are now potentially going down. The pandemic isn't over. Or gone. So I am certainly not willing to celebrate that Georgia isn't getting a ton worse... they are still getting lots of new cases...
 

Bubba

Cyburbian
Messages
5,230
Points
33
It certainly isn't good. Is that what you are arguing? That it has turned out good?

I mean how many deaths are you okay with? Or do you mean that it is fine that Georgia alone has almost 40k cases in the last 3 weeks?

Doom and gloom is still pretty accurate, unless you are discounting the lives that have been lost or those who still could lose their lives, then maybe it is all roses!

Also, predicting this as anything but doom and gloom seems pretty irrational to me, especially since it has clearly been an unmitigated disaster on all fronts. Particularly on states that took their time to close, and likely for those that are cavalier on their opening. Truth be told, we won't know that until much later. Likely when lots of more people have died. What has been shown is that our country saved LOTS of lives by closing down. If we would have done it sooner we likely could have saved an additional 36,000. I won't put a price on lives, because that is just stupid, but I certainly would prefer we had those 36,000 people back.

I am always surprised that people are so comfortable putting others at risk, because they don't think anything is "that bad", or the numbers are now potentially going down. The pandemic isn't over. Or gone. So I am certainly not willing to celebrate that Georgia isn't getting a ton worse... they are still getting lots of new cases...
Let's recap:

  • One month ago, Georgia laid out a plan for allowing some businesses to reopen. No business has been forced to reopen.
  • Georgia residents and visitors have a choice whether or not to patronize (in person) establishments that have reopened.
  • COVID-related mortality rates have not spiked in the past month.

So, again, where's the predicted "disaster"?
 

AG74683

Cyburbian
Messages
6,878
Points
34
So, again, where's the predicted "disaster"?
Maybe Georgians are just more amenable to the needs of others, but my experience here in NC has been that a lot of the population just doesn't take any precautions at all. We've had multiple people in our office flat out ignore established protection measures (lines on the floor, designated wait areas, number of people in the building) because they feel that the virus is a complete and utter hoax and that somehow they're above the needs of the rest of the population. Our local numbers have also risen dramatically as conditions have relaxed.

My doom and gloom isn't about whether the state government is establishing the proper procedures, it's whether people follow them. It's a team effort, and there's a lot of people who don't want to work for the team. Relaxing these orders is great, but it's giving a completely false sense of security. And again, it's not about spikes in COVID mortality rates, it's about trying to end the mortality to begin with. We don't want "steady" mortality rates, we want NO morality. It's the same as going up to a smoldering campfire and blowing on it.
 

Planit

Cyburbian
Messages
12,703
Points
49
That's some of the same discussion going on in this county. XXX County has reported 2 deaths & 110ish positive tests. IMHO I think it has been multiple figures that lead to these low numbers.

-most people did want they thought was the best things early one when first exec order was put in place, stayed home mostly & took precautions
-not a lot of people movement into or out of county/region
-people started getting out with masks (mostly)
-people still felt comfortable meeting in their close knit pods (for example, we've had 'driveway beers' a few times with 2 other couples and stay separated mostly)

This was the observed actions for the first 4 weeks starting March 17th.

Now, people are much more cavalier (& increasingly) about going out.
-masks wearing seems to be extremely optional everywhere - stores, offices, etc.
-lots more people traveling to beach & mountains, including out of state visits

The instances of reported cases (if testing continues) should go up because of this increased contact & exposure - there has been an increase but it is still very limited.

Also IMHO, I would have behaved differently if I was in a different location, such as Charlotte or Raleigh. I believe location is a bigger threat and should be addressed rather than statewide orders. Granted you could still have contamination by peoples comings and goings, but the closure orders should be looked at regionally.
 

Hink

OH....IO
Staff member
Moderator
Messages
15,522
Points
48
Let's recap:

  • One month ago, Georgia laid out a plan for allowing some businesses to reopen. No business has been forced to reopen.
  • Georgia residents and visitors have a choice whether or not to patronize (in person) establishments that have reopened.
  • COVID-related mortality rates have not spiked in the past month.

So, again, where's the predicted "disaster"?
You said it shouldn't be called doom and gloom. My question was about why you feel this has been successful?

Hopefully the trend is moving down. Georgia has been one of the least transparent states when it comes to data (with lots of errors due to typos?!?), and I certainly wouldn't be proud of the way they have handled any of their communications. Georgia will be judged by the data (once it is accurately provided :roflmao:, if they are capable of that under Kemp).

I certainly don't think anyone is holding up Georgia as an example of success throughout this, and Kemp isn't going to be rated highly as a leader, but hopefully you get through it safe and healthy.
 

Bubba

Cyburbian
Messages
5,230
Points
33
You said it shouldn't be called doom and gloom. My question was about why you feel this has been successful?

Hopefully the trend is moving down. Georgia has been one of the least transparent states when it comes to data (with lots of errors due to typos?!?), and I certainly wouldn't be proud of the way they have handled any of their communications. Georgia will be judged by the data (once it is accurately provided :roflmao:, if they are capable of that under Kemp).

I certainly don't think anyone is holding up Georgia as an example of success throughout this, and Kemp isn't going to be rated highly as a leader, but hopefully you get through it safe and healthy.
:drool;

Where did I use the term "successful"? I'm just asking AG (and now you) how the disaster predictions from a month ago are working out for y'all. And, speaking of inaccurate numbers:

Or do you mean that it is fine that Georgia alone has almost 40k cases in the last 3 weeks?
As of 7 PM yesterday, Georgia had yet to reach 40k in total since the pandemic started.

 

luckless pedestrian

Super Moderator
Staff member
Moderator
Messages
12,094
Points
48
Generally I think it's difficult interpreting data for these reasons:

  • testing - increasing testing means it shows that more people have it in the data sets which skews what's happening - to me, this shows that this COVID-19 is highly prevalent, not that there's more cases than before but that we are now learning how much is out there and where - I do think anti-body testing is just as important so we can look back to see how community spread happened - so we shouldn't penalize states increasing their testing by pointing out how many more cases they have or what happens then is we encourage states to downplay their data when this data is important - accurate reporting is crucial and we need to encourage hospitals and states to accurately report cases - a lack of trust is hurting public health efforts
  • it's not brain surgery that more densely populated areas have more cases but to me the key is the per capita rate - Maine has a low case number compared to Georgia but we have only have 1.3 million people, the size of many cities is our whole state so I am more interested in per capita rates if I am comparing states (and, also compare it to the rate of testing, see above point)

I do think social distancing, self isolating and the like keeps the numbers of cases down but until we get a vaccine, the virus is still present and isn't going anywhere so testing or no testing, reporting or no reporting doesn't remove the fact that it's here and isn't going anywhere without a vaccine

It's dangerous to think head-in-the-sand not reporting or downplaying data makes it go away or, that a free-for-all open for business is not going to have an effect on cases/deaths because it will
 

Hink

OH....IO
Staff member
Moderator
Messages
15,522
Points
48
:drool;

Where did I use the term "successful"? I'm just asking AG (and now you) how the disaster predictions from a month ago are working out for y'all. And, speaking of inaccurate numbers:



As of 7 PM yesterday, Georgia had yet to reach 40k in total since the pandemic started.

Yes, that 40k is total, my mistake. Not sure where I got the impression that was for the last 3 weeks, I may have been looking at testing, not cases.

I guess my assumption is that since you don't think it is doom and gloom, and don't feel like it is going negatively, why do you feel it is positive, and therefore successful?

Or is your position that it isn't successful, but you won't say that, only that it wasn't not successful?

My point isn't anything further than it clearly isn't successful when we lose as many people as we have lost. Particularly when we likely could have saved more of them. Opening up isn't the problem, people not having clear guidance and leadership is our problem. States where that has been strong - I'm proud to say Ohio was one - reflect in the numbers those actions. States that leadership has folded, or in many cases not taken the pandemic seriously, likely will have different outcomes.

My hope is people see the difference and understand that we are still climbing a hill here. This isn't a coast until the bottom of the hill moment.
 

Bubba

Cyburbian
Messages
5,230
Points
33
Yes, that 40k is total, my mistake. Not sure where I got the impression that was for the last 3 weeks, I may have been looking at testing, not cases.

I guess my assumption is that since you don't think it is doom and gloom, and don't feel like it is going negatively, why do you feel it is positive, and therefore successful?

Or is your position that it isn't successful, but you won't say that, only that it wasn't not successful?
I don't know if it's something that can be termed a success, but I do know that it has hardly been a disaster. I do have a colleague in Cali that checks in on me on a regular basis to make sure I'm surviving Zombieland, though. :roflmao:

I wonder if we will see a pandemic stay-at-home baby boomlet come this Christmas?
Probably. On a somewhat related note:

The fabulous Boys Next Doortm are having a baby via surrogate - it's been interesting to watch the whole process unfold. The egg is from a donor in North Carolina, both of the guys contributed sperm (and they've been mute on which one of them is the father), and their surrogate is in California. The due date is June 8, but based on the surrogate's last doctor visit, they were told to anticipate an earlier delivery. So, they're flying out to San Francisco today, and will self-quarantine together there for two weeks in a condo owned by one of the guy's cousin before heading to Fresno for the birth. I imagine they'll spend the next two weeks in isolation arguing about which one of them gets to be in the delivery room. They are also very firm in insisting that the child will not be named Corona or Covid.
 
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DVD

Cyburbian
Messages
14,502
Points
51
I'm not going to say good or bad. Part of the problem is that we compare our county to other countries. We can't do that. Each state is too different. If I pick on Georgia, it's bigger than South Korea. I'm not sure on population though. We can't compare Georgia to NY because NYC population density and viral spread will be incredibly different. What I do have a problem with is how most of the red states are making the numbers work for what they want rather than responding to the numbers. Lack of testing distorts numbers. Arizona I believe is #50, go me! Some states are refusing to release numbers in high risk centers like Arizona and senior living, again go me! Is Arizona going to explode on numbers. No, 1 because it's rigging the numbers and 2 it just won't have the viral spread the NYC has. We generally live farther apart the New Yorkers. At the same time our numbers are still going up and up is a bad thing in this case. I would be more confident knowing how many hospital beds are open than how many people may or may not have it. To me it's a better indication on how well prepared we are to fight this thing.
 

bureaucrat#3

Member
Messages
27
Points
3
I have in-laws who are nurses in west Georgia. They have seen a fairly steady decline in patients. It sounds like they've also gotten much better at treatment and aren't having to put as many people in ICU or on ventilators. We're on the GA/AL line and our cases have gone up and down but are slowly trending down. Montgomery's mayor came out yesterday and said there wasn't an available ICU bed in the metro region (3 hospitals). They're sending people to Birmingham, 1.5 hours north. Mobile is also pretty rough right now and still climbing. I'm worried that the Black Belt is getting hit pretty hard. Its sparsely populated, but most of the hospitals have closed in the area have closed over the last 20 years. Some counties hardly have any regular doctors. Nobody would know if the virus was prevalent there because there really isnt any media or local newspapers anymore that cover the area.
 

luckless pedestrian

Super Moderator
Staff member
Moderator
Messages
12,094
Points
48
I am concerned for those who live in rural areas and no longer have hospitals within a reasonable drive, and/or the transit to get them there.
regional hospitals here are waiting for the summer wave of cases when the rural areas that have camps, lake camps and summer-as-a-verb second homeowners come up and cases increase as yeah, those rural hospitals are great for band aids but some don't have more than 1-3 ICU beds if at all - if it's not the visitor that gets it, then it's the asymptomatic visitor that goes to the grocery store and infects others - I think most summer tourist spots are all bracing for impact

People are not quarantining at home for 14 days here - anecdotally the stories are filled with purposeful defiance - it's a smh thing
 

JNA

Cyburbian Plus
Messages
25,490
Points
57
Did you know that there are different classification of hospitals

CAH - Critical Access https://www.ruralhealthinfo.org/topics/critical-access-hospitals
location website https://www.flexmonitoring.org/data/critical-access-hospital-locations/

SCH - Sole Community Hospitals page 10-11 https://www.cms.gov/Outreach-and-Ed...MLNProducts/Downloads/AcutePaymtSysfctsht.pdf
Interesting Read -
Differences in Community Characteristics of Sole Community Hospitals https://www.shepscenter.unc.edu/wp-..._Differences_in_Community_Characteristics.pdf


Rural Hospital Closures Since 2010
Provides an interactive map showing hospital closures since 2010. Lists closures by year and Medicare payment type (Critical Access Hospital, Sole Community Hospital, Rural Referral Center, etc.), the number that have closed for each state, and the number that closed each year. Map shows locations of hospital closures and shades states based on whether or not they have adopted Medicaid expansion.
Type: Map/Mapping System
Sponsoring organization: Stroudwater Associates
view details
 

ChairmanMeow

Cyburbian
Messages
179
Points
6
regional hospitals here are waiting for the summer wave of cases when the rural areas that have camps, lake camps and summer-as-a-verb second homeowners come up and cases increase as yeah, those rural hospitals are great for band aids but some don't have more than 1-3 ICU beds if at all - if it's not the visitor that gets it, then it's the asymptomatic visitor that goes to the grocery store and infects others - I think most summer tourist spots are all bracing for impact

People are not quarantining at home for 14 days here - anecdotally the stories are filled with purposeful defiance - it's a smh thing
How many summer people do you guys usually get?
 
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