• Ongoing coronavirus / COVID-19 discussion: how is the pandemic affecting your community, workplace, and wellness? 🦠

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Coronavirus and other pandemics

jlspencer

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I'm curious as well.

The stuff that I've seen shows the coronavirus is infecting a lot of people and spreading relatively quickly but it isn't as severe or as deadly as the annual influenza strain. The worst case scenario models I've seen show that it could infect hundreds of thousands or even close to a million but have a lower mortality rate, especially when compared to what damage other, more familiar, viruses might do if they infected a similar number of people in a season. Coronavirus is noteworthy for the speed at which it spreads, it's "newness", and the fact that they haven't really pinpointed down exactly how it spreads (or, conversely, ruled out ways it doesn't spread). It's not it's mortality rate that is making it noteworthy.


Now if it does indeed spread to a million people, it could definitely have devastating economic effects even if not many are dying, especially if there are significant pockets of infection in large industrial or commercial centers. There have been no reported cases here in Michigan but there is already talk of auto manufacturers slowing down production or shutting down lines as factories in China are facing the possibility of shutting down while the infection scare passes. Then there is the economic cost associated with the time and money it takes to disinfect everything before factories and tech centers open back up. If this worsens and drags on through the rest of the quarter, I would expect the next automotive production forecasts to be revised slightly downward from what they were projecting earlier. The same scenario is likely playing out in other industries as well.
What is interesting is the panic. Back in 2009 we had 60 million infected and 275,00 hospitalized with 12.5 thousand that died in the U.S. No widespread news headlines every day and no hoarding of supplies. We dealt with it the best we could. I was infected and hospitalized - and I survived. Just be diligent.
 
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jlspencer

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If you are sheltered-in-place like we are in California, think of it as an opportunity to catch up on things normally not done.

I updated my resume, took online training, built skills like in Excel, etc. Make a list of the low-priority things that you may have been putting off and then just tick them off as you sit at home.
 

riley4183

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3
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0
We are (almost) all working from home, still accepting and processing permit and planning applications but only electronically. Fortunately we were transitioning to this model before the outbreak - amazing how fast we pulled it together!

Entire state (CA) shut down now, but husband works in a residential treatment facility to he's still going to work every day. One son is a pharmacy tech but in a high-risk group, so he's sheltering at home and not getting paid and not eligible for anything. Other son works (worked) detailing cars - he's non-essential so no work for him. Still, 2 out of the 4 adults in our home are able to work and be paid, so we're doing a lot better than many.
 

luckless pedestrian

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What is interesting is the panic. Back in 2009 we had 60 million infected and 275,00 died in the U.S. No widespread news headlines every day and no hoarding of supplies. We dealt with it the best we could. I was infected and hospitalized - and I survived. Just be diligent.
I saw this and had to look it up - here's what I found
 

arcplans

As Featured in "High Times"
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6,558
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Wow...just wow. You really just don't get it, do you? My office alone has 40 some odd kids living paycheck to paycheck (it is SoCal after all) walking transects in remote areas that we're going to have to figure out how to keep going since the gubermint is tell us to shut them down - they can't exactly keep surveying from the comfort of their craptacular apartments. But, hey, feel free to dial in at the end of next week when we lay them all off and tell them it's for their own good.
So I had an intern doing a housing survey. We tried to get him as much done, and we will try to do the "new" parts of town through google street view and really just trying to accommodate him as much as possible. It just really sucks.
 

Bubba

Cyburbian
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5,093
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32
I know, and I'm not going after you and AG (too much, at least...). Today is probably going to be the most craptacular day of my 24-year professional career (or at least until next Friday) - y'all are just catching the fallout.
I'm feeling better after a freaking marathon of a leadership call. A lot of our field work looks to be exempt from the shelter in place orders, and senior leadership is more concerned with keeping everyone safe and healthy than with meeting utilization goals. We're good for a few weeks at least, so I can postpone my binge drinking for now.
 

notabigcitygirl

Cyburbian
Messages
39
Points
2
This week my City sent 2/3 of the planners home to work remotely. So far so good. I spent my first day setting up all my equipment and tools to replicate my office workstation as much as possible. Should there be a work slow down, I've been told that we may be utilized for phone duty for our District Health offices using prepared responses. Doesn't sound like fun, but I'd rather be useful.
 

DVD

Cyburbian
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14,339
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50
We're going to try to sending most planners to work from home, but maybe Monday or Tuesday. They set up a VPN for me, but never gave me directions on how to access it yet. They want a couple people to test it out to see if there are any flaws and then report back to the group. WTF. No one has ever worked from home. No one has tested the system for bugs. I guess now is better than before the governor decides to shut everything down - not in the works for my state yet. Maybe after a bunch of Californian's flee confinement to my fair city.
 

TOFB

Cyburbian
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2,295
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26
I saw a real estate attorney I work with at the store tonight. I was buying primarily vodka, bloody mary mix and cat food.. We eternally connected.
 

JNA

Cyburbian Plus
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Ignaz Semmelweis - in his time (1847) about hand washing

The Semmelweis reflex or "Semmelweis effect" is a metaphor for the reflex-like tendency to reject new evidence or new knowledge because it contradicts established norms, beliefs, or paradigms.
 

Dan

Dear Leader
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Went to Wegmans about noon. Beef, chicken, pasta, and canned soup are back, but quantities are limited. Still no naan or hand sanitizer. We're good with toilet paper, so we didn't look.

I think we need to educate Boomers more about physical distancing.

When I went to Aldi, an older woman got in line maybe a foot or two behind me. I was really uncomfortable, and tried to get away, but she kept gettng closer, as if she thought the line was moving. And she had the goddamn sniffles. However, I had to keep distance from the man in front of me.

Maybe three or four times when I was at the co-op, crunchy Boomers were blocking the aisles just chatting it up like it was 2019, and they wouldn't move over when I approached. The aisles at the co-op are already narrow enough.

(Disclaimer: I'm an older Gen Xer, and would be a Boomer if I was born a few years earlier.)
 

kms

Cyburbian
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6,205
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35
Went to Wegmans about noon. Beef, chicken, pasta, and canned soup are back, but quantities are limited. Still no naan or hand sanitizer. We're good with toilet paper, so we didn't look.

I think we need to educate Boomers more about physical distancing.

When I went to Aldi, an older woman got in line maybe a foot or two behind me. I was really uncomfortable, and tried to get away, but she kept gettng closer, as if she thought the line was moving. And she had the goddamn sniffles. However, I had to keep distance from the man in front of me.

Maybe three or four times when I was at the co-op, crunchy Boomers were blocking the aisles just chatting it up like it was 2019, and they wouldn't move over when I approached. The aisles at the co-op are already narrow enough.
A woman at the store crowded me, too. I was able to turn 90 degrees away from her and the man in front of me.

People clogging the aisles at the food co op here is normal. I can’t stand to shop there because of the other customers.
 
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JNA

Cyburbian Plus
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25,277
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55
Coronavirus Will Change the World Permanently. Here’s How.
A crisis on this scale can reorder society in dramatic ways, for better or worse. Here are 34 big thinkers’ predictions for what’s to come.

 
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DaytoNick6

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Out here in Denver and the reactions are a very mixed bag. The medical community is having a rough go, but it appears the average resident is concerned but not overly panicked. My workplace has gone mostly remote with the ability to go to the office if need be. All permitting is proceeding as before as well as all reviews.

It will be interesting to see if some of the timelines developers have set for themselves remain as I am sure more people will be working remotely.
 

spalding

Member
Messages
23
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2
I handle a lot of zoning due diligence for lenders and attorneys. We are incredibly busy right now. It's like all these companies are scrambling to buy buy buy or refi with the rates at historic lows.

We've all been working at home, but this scare seems to have resulted in an uptick in commercial real estate buying/refi.
 

Hink

OH....IO
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I handle a lot of zoning due diligence for lenders and attorneys. We are incredibly busy right now. It's like all these companies are scrambling to buy buy buy or refi with the rates at historic lows.

We've all been working at home, but this scare seems to have resulted in an uptick in commercial real estate buying/refi.
I think that is one of the weird things to go from 100 to 0 so fast. There is still a lot of money out there, and some business sectors have a lot of liquidity. Restaurants are going to go under. JC Penney's and some of the other on the edge retails may go out... but there are going to be winners once this is over, and it seems like there could be a HUGE bump to the economy once this is over. It is something that our world has never seen before to shut down globally so quickly.

When it opens back up, it will be interesting to see who comes out on top...
 

MacheteJames

Cyburbian
Messages
953
Points
20
Have any of you guys looked into the logistics of virtual planning board/commission meetings? We've started thinking about how it could work - the state legislature passed a few emergency bills that appear to allow for public meetings to take place via electronic means during this crisis.

My first thought is that if we go this way, it's going to depress turnout quite a bit, given that the average age of attendees at night meetings has to be around 60. And then, down the road (presuming we all survive this), I expect that there will be recrimination over particular applications that were approved during this period, questioning the legitimacy of decisions made during this period, etc.

And then there is the burden on our planners - several of whom have young kids - trying to present staff reports virtually from their laptop, while home, with toddlers screaming in the background.
 

Dan

Dear Leader
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It's weird seeing commercials for products you can't buy and places you can't go. Commercials for baby wipes, toilet paper, cruises, vacation destinations, restaurants, gyms, airlines, movies in theaters, and the like. Commercials featuring large groups of people out and about in crowds. Last Monday night, I was watching Wheel of Fortune, and a woman won a TRIP TO BEAUTIFUL ITALY! Sightsee on the canals of Venice, take in the museums of Milan!

I'll nominate the Amarillo, Texas (Potter County) and Elmira, New York (Chemung County) areas as the most poulated area without any COVID-19 cases. I think Las Cruces, New Mexico (Dona Ana County) just got its first case yesterday.

Don't forget to practice social distancing. Six feet or two meters!

social_distancing.jpg
 

Salmissra

Cyburbian
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5,829
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29
Starting tomorrow at midnight, shelter in place orders for my county of residence. Currently until April 3, but may be extended. Good thing I'm already under WFH preferred - I think I'm going to just hunker down and focus on not freaking out.
 

luckless pedestrian

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like the insider criminals dd?
yes but we all saw this coming that a flu might have this impact - I would have paid a higher price than those Washington insiders did - it's criminal because they downplayed how bad it might be to people as they were buying low...
 

AG74683

Cyburbian
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6,647
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I can absolutely get behind this whole "social distancing" thing. How do we make this a permanent policy? Perhaps also do away with handshakes too?

For the first time, my standard weekend of stay at home, drink beer, and play video games (BTW, Doom Eternal is awesome) wasn't seen as some weird thing, it was seen as the RIGHT thing to do. It's glorious.

The state is asking for health care volunteers. I received the letter yesterday because I fall under the clinical assistance category (physicians, advanced car providers, nurses, and EMS). I'm not entirely sure what happens if I sign up to volunteer and get sent somewhere else in the state and can't report to work. I assume I have some sort of immunity to standard employment laws in this situation.

EDIT* Forgot to mention, our county had its first confirmed case over the weekend. The state website is really far behind on updates, which is frustrating.
 
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WSU MUP Student

Cyburbian
Messages
10,101
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41
Interactive Buffalo, NY COVID-19 map:

https://erieny.maps.arcgis.com/apps/opsdashboard/index.html#/dd7f1c0c352e4192ab162a1dfadc58e1

EDIT 3-23: Seems like there's a pattern of the more affluent areas getting hit the hardest. Buffalo city proper and the Northtowns, followed by the well-off second ring suburbs. The blue collar inner ring suburbs, and the third ring suburbs, are the least affected,

View attachment 48100
Are the affluent areas being hit hardest or is it just that people in those areas have better access to testing than folks in other communities?
 

Bubba

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The spouse of an unnamed employee of Mrs. Bubba's firm has tested positive. So, what, I'm now down to three degrees of Kevin Bacon away from Covid 19?
 

Dan

Dear Leader
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Are the affluent areas being hit hardest or is it just that people in those areas have better access to testing than folks in other communities?
I would say that wealthier communities might get hit harder because they travel more, and are more "connected" with a larger world. Less affluent communities may be less connected and more insular, and there's less exposure to "outsiders" that could start community spread.

I live in a county in New York State with a population of about 100,000. People here travel a LOT. Earlier, I said there's a iot of academic types who always seem to be on the road for research, sabbaticals, conferences and (clears throat and plays a track of chamber music) symposiums. (My next door neighbor is a prof, who travels to Europe every couple of months for some academic gathering or another. I watch her cat while she's away. BIL works in research in academia, and is also off to some far flung part of the US or world every few months.) We're up to 15 confirmed cases.

The county next door has half the population. It's very country working class, economically and culturally, to the point where many residents speak with an Appalachian twang. They have 2 confirmed cases.
 

Big Owl

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2,552
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28
In Mecklenburg County (Charlotte, NC), the cases are concentrated in the areas with the largest Karen population and the area with the most anti-Karen population, which are Ballantyne and
Plaza Midwood & NODA, respectively.

meckzip.JPG
 
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DVD

Cyburbian
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14,339
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My work went to "appointment only", but we've been told we need to be available for people without appointments. ???
 

Big Owl

Cyburbian
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I can absolutely get behind this whole "social distancing" thing. How do we make this a permanent policy? Perhaps also do away with handshakes too?

For the first time, my standard weekend of stay at home, drink beer, and play video games (BTW, Doom Eternal is awesome) wasn't seen as some weird thing, it was seen as the RIGHT thing to do. It's glorious.

The state is asking for health care volunteers. I received the letter yesterday because I fall under the clinical assistance category (physicians, advanced car providers, nurses, and EMS). I'm not entirely sure what happens if I sign up to volunteer and get sent somewhere else in the state and can't report to work. I assume I have some sort of immunity to standard employment laws in this situation.

EDIT* Forgot to mention, our county had its first confirmed case over the weekend. The state website is really far behind on updates, which is frustrating.
Here's a good resource. It looks like they use press releases and news articles to document cases.
 

Bubba

Cyburbian
Messages
5,093
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32
With Mrs. Bubba and I both working from home, and not being able to dine out for three or four meals per week, we're having to get off schedule with the dishwasher and run it more often. #firstworldproblems
 

WSU MUP Student

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10,101
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41
With Mrs. Bubba and I both working from home, and not being able to dine out for three or four meals per week, we're having to get off schedule with the dishwasher and run it more often. #firstworldproblems
We've been running ours nearly everyday for the past week. It's crazy how many dishes we go through on a normal day, especially glasses and cups!
 

AG74683

Cyburbian
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6,647
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Governor Cooper has a scheduled conference call with county commissioners across the state on Tuesday. Shutdown is coming in NC.
 

Hink

OH....IO
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I am amazed at how much my kids can completely destroy my house in a few hours. I mean I have seen this destruction over the weekend, but this is a new level. Also, when my kids are home they seem to just use a new cup and silverware for everything they do. I found a spoon in the bathroom yesterday. It was because my son was mixing his chocolate milk while washing his hands. Not sure if I was mad or proud that he was getting the hand washing thing...
 

WSU MUP Student

Cyburbian
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10,101
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Michigan went to a stay at home order today at 11:00 a.m.

Besides some walks with the family and a going for the occasional run, we largely haven't left the house in over a week. My wife and oldest went for a drive yesterday to go drop off some Girl Scout Cookies on a friend's porch and I went into the office to work in our Emergency Operations Center last Wednesday and made one final brief stop at Kroger. No other trips to any restaurants or other stores or anything like that.

We're stocked pretty well here but eventually we'll have to head out to go buy some milk and eggs. I may try to do that first thing tomorrow morning.
 

mendelman

Unfrozen Caveman Planner
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I am amazed at how much my kids can completely destroy my house in a few hours. I mean I have seen this destruction over the weekend, but this is a new level. Also, when my kids are home they seem to just use a new cup and silverware for everything they do. I found a spoon in the bathroom yesterday. It was because my son was mixing his chocolate milk while washing his hands. Not sure if I was mad or proud that he was getting the hand washing thing...
No extensive use of plates and silverware in my house as we've been on paper plates since late December when we discovered a leak behind the sink cabinet from the waste pipe.

We've been without a dishwasher since then and were anticipating a kitchen remodel starting 4/6/20, but....hopes and wishes now. :down:
 
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