"A futures market in terrorist attacks, while it sounds grisly, may help us to aggregate diffuse knowledge in a way that will prove superior to expert knowledge. It also may not, but it seems to me that it's worth a try. At the very least, if we're going to demand that the government get creative in fighting terror, we shouldn't be so quick to criticize when it does just that."
"The story about the Pentgon's "terrorism market" clearly is an extension of Iowa Electronic Markets, which has been run for years by the University of Iowa's Tippett School of Business. Here's a link to the Iowa Information Market's web site:
In brief, the IEM lets persons place bets on the likelihood of given events' happening; for example, people could bet on the likelihood that Saddam Hussein will survive this year, or who will win the next presidential election. The collective expertise of the participants has proven to be extremely useful in predicting events.
The notion that the dim-bulbs in Congress and the media should attack such a useful and proven idea as the Pentagon's is utterly absurd."
El Feo said:I'm kind of on board with at least giving this a try...
Chet said:But the ability to manipulate the market is madness in iteself.
Imagine a future on the liklihood that a high speed train will derail in Berlin as a result of terrorism. Dr. Evil places a one BILLION dollar investment that it WILL happen, then spends a measly $100,000 in the equipment and training to make it happen. Success. Lives are lost. Profit is achieved.
Alan said:I agree - and I'm being serious. Though my post from earlier was cynical, I do hope to have the opportunity in the near future to go to Las Vegas and place my bets. Or at least wire transfer my funds to the Pentagon Casino and watch it at home on my my satellite feed. CNN and FOX ain't seen nuthin' yet!
Two years ago, if you had bet that the World Trade Center would be destroyed with thousands of people killed, you could be celebrating right now.
Michael Stumpf said:Two years ago, if you had bet that the World Trade Center would be destroyed with thousands of people killed, you could be celebrating right now.
El Feo said:Conceptuallty I think this is valuable, but I will concede it would depend entirely on how it was organized, secured and run, etc.
Chet said:Oh yes, lets let THE GOVERNMENT decide what to put on the market. Why on earth should The Man be trusted to decide such things?! Adam Smith is turning in his grave.
Oh yes, lets let THE GOVERNMENT decide what to put on the market. Why on earth should The Man be trusted to decide such things?! Adam Smith is turning in his grave.
Also, I'd say that kicking folks out on their asses because their "creativity" isn't considered appropriate is something the Pentagon is already quite good at.
El Feo said:Or alternatively, Mike, if enough people "bet" this was a "winner," the threat would have been taken seriously, intelligence dots might have been connected, and the whole freakin' mess could have been avoided.
Michael Stumpf said:No, I can't buy into that logic. If so many people knew it was going to happen, as demonstrated by their betting it would happen, then the terrorists would not have been keeping it very secret in the first place.
BKM said:I agree. How in the heck could they set this up to avoid manipulation. Heck, I could see it now. Al Qaeda manipulates the system and from their "winnings" gets some of the cash to do their next "project."
Exactlly there are hundreds of attack opportunities or holes, if anyone would ask me I'd give em my top ten scenarios.Terrorists are STUPID. If they new our culture well, they would see a hundreds of holes in how to attack us, and they could do it with less than 3 to 4 years of planning and tens of thousands of dollars. More like 7 days, and 2k per mission.
Jen said:DoD this is true Exactlly there are hundreds of attack opportunities or holes, if anyone would ask me I'd give em my top ten scenarios
El Feo said:But keep in mind that entry level in the diplomatic corps doesn't pay much at all, and all the attention that the seniors will pay to a G7s opinion doesn't amount to much either.
Jen said:DoD But a futures market? How would the individual or municipal holding(shadow gov't)collect without uncomfortable scrutinization. We are saying payoffs for completed events and not intercepted closecalls. Let the cia moles drop acid if it helps their insight but Dollars for Deaths?
Marriage has now postponed that career path until sometime around, oh, I dunno, retirement.
The Irish one said:
(and I admit there is real potential with this practice) then what is to stop the FREE MARKET from doing it?
Government/ military emloyees should be allowed to invest.