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is crime on the rise?

jresta

Cyburbian
Messages
1,474
Points
23
As the recession drags on does it seem like things are getting worse in your city?

Or am i just watching too much evening news?

Maybe it's just because the war is "over" and terrorism is passé that the media outlets are looking for new headlines but it seems like some really nasty crimes have been grabbing the spotlight lately.
 

biscuit

Cyburbian
Messages
3,904
Points
25
I don't remember the specific numbers but I remember reading a report that the crime rate has increased over last year. The biggest increase was in theft and bank robbery, which I guess is to be expected in times of high unemployment.
 

BKM

Cyburbian
Messages
6,464
Points
29
We've had some nasty murders in the City I work. Not sure the city where I live has seen much of a rise in crime.
 

donk

Cyburbian
Messages
6,970
Points
30
We have not had a murder here in almost three years (or is it four) in my City. Butwhen one happens it is usually pretty grisly and odd.

As for crime, I think that it is the same as always, just reported more.
 
Messages
5,353
Points
31
Violent crime has always been a problem in New Orleans. If my memory serves me correct, it peaked at 400+ murders in the mid-90's (1994). Even though the numbers have decreased over the years with massive changes in the police department, murders are on the rise again. Blame it all on the drugs.
 

pete-rock

Cyburbian
Messages
1,551
Points
24
Crime has been up here. The number of murders has increased, but I don't know about other violent crimes or property crimes.

The police chief announced his "retirement" effective later this summer, and there have been rumblings that the increase in crime is behind his forced retirement.

The big issue here has become "police redeployment". The Mayor wants to transfer more experienced officers, currently working in light crime precincts, back into the city's higher crime precincts. The police union is resisting, saying that vet officers earned the right to be where they are. Meanwhile, crime rises in the bad areas.

It looks like it'll be a fun summer here.
 

Chet

Cyburbian Emeritus
Messages
10,624
Points
34
Gang related crimes have been making the news alot around here. Other than that, just sickos and wierdo as usual. But then again, Wisconsin is doomed to hell anyway.
 

bocian

Cyburbian
Messages
212
Points
9
That depends on the location, and I mean even your location WITHIN a particular city. Statistsics don't mean much unless they touch you personally and/or can be applied.
If I get robbed in Baltimore, then crime IS horrible there, although the statistics might show D.C. is worse..
So.. whatever...
 

jordanb

Cyburbian
Messages
3,232
Points
25
I understood the recent Chicago murder rates to be related to a gang war that has been caused by the housing projects going down. Gangs that used to rule them have suddenly found themselves with no place to go.
 

pete-rock

Cyburbian
Messages
1,551
Points
24
jordanb said:
I understood the recent Chicago murder rates to be related to a gang war that has been caused by the housing projects going down. Gangs that used to rule them have suddenly found themselves with no place to go.
From what I've heard from police officers, there is some truth to the notion that drug related crimes are up because competition is up among gangs and dealers. But I don't know if it's related directly to the loss of public housing.

Most of the drug sales/gang crimes have been (for years) and continue to be in areas where there is little public housing -- Englewood and Garfield Park, for example.
 

Mud Princess

Cyburbian
Messages
4,898
Points
27
jresta said:
As the recession drags on does it seem like things are getting worse in your city?

Or am i just watching too much evening news?
I believe that nationally, the rate of violent crime has been declining for years. But the TV news media can't seem to find anything else to talk about (corporate malfeasance? hunger in Africa? planning projects?), further perpetuating our Culture of Fear.
 

Wulf9

Member
Messages
923
Points
22
I think you see a lot more crime on the eveneing news whether or not the crime rate is up. Crime reporting takes a limited amount of reporter time, so is less expensive to produce. It doesn't take any imagination, so less experienced reporters can do the reports. Finally, the media is avoiding investigative journalism with so much vigor that they need something to fill their air time.
 

jordanb

Cyburbian
Messages
3,232
Points
25
Yeah, I did some stats on Chicago some time ago. I think it worked out that, assuming murders are completely random (which they aren't by a long shot), a person's chance of getting murdered in a 70 year lifetime was just under 2%. Crime is an unhealthy obsession of suburbanites, and I think the media is primarily to blame.

Also, it seems to me that suburbanites lack the ability reasonably assess risk. I like to use the beltway sniper as an example. The Economist did a rundown on how likely somebody in the DC suburbs were to be killed by a sniper. It was some absurdly low number, but that didn't stop parents from pulling their kids out of school and people from hiding in their houses quaking with fear.

Again, I think the problem is the media, crime is simple and easy to cover. It's all emotion, they don't have to deal with all of those nasty details like the real issues, so they bounce from crime to crime with zeal looking sullen and indignant and crying crocodile tears.
 

Habanero

Cyburbian
Messages
3,241
Points
27
I know we're higher than last year, but they report more on child drownings which are also unfortunately on the rise.
 

Cardinal

Cyburbian
Messages
10,081
Points
34
jordanb said:
a person's chance of getting murdered in a 70 year lifetime was just under 2%.
I'm always a little leary of statistics like this. Some people's lifestyles or living conditions make them more likely to be repeated victems of crime, whereas others may be far less likely to be targets. Is that a person's chance of getting murdered just once or does that number include people who might get murdered more than once during their lifetime?
 

jordanb

Cyburbian
Messages
3,232
Points
25
I took the number of murders in the city last year, divided by the population, and multipled by 70. Notice that I said it's only realistic if you assume muders are completly random. What it does show is an extreme upper end to the chance that J. Random middle-class city dweller (who isn't involved in gangs, drugs, or organised crime) has of getting murdered.
 
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Chet

Cyburbian Emeritus
Messages
10,624
Points
34
So the 70% thing is chicago only? What is the statistical basis here?

Sounds like the "guns and ass cream" spurius relationships taught at some local schools...
 

jordanb

Cyburbian
Messages
3,232
Points
25
Um, 70% of what? I took the murder rate for a population for one year, which assuming a random system will be the probability that any one person in the population will be murdered, and simulated a 70 year lifetime in that population by multipling the probability for one year by 70. The answer was actually 1.6% (I just checked it).

I chose Chicago because I live here so I was most interested in crime here (go figure). Also Chicago is a very large central city with a relatively high murder rate, and I wanted to show how ridiculous the suburban fears of the "inner city" are.
 

Chet

Cyburbian Emeritus
Messages
10,624
Points
34
I took the murder rate for a population for one year, which assuming a random system will be the probability that any one person in the population will be murdered, and simulated a 70 year lifetime in that population by multipling the probability for one year by 70. The answer was actually 1.6% (I just checked it).

Yeah, thats what I thought. Guns and ass cream.

Spurious relationships at best. I hope your minds isnt this flacid when you graduate with a masters. Otherwise, *sigh* I'll have to side with Kuntsler for the second time in my life.
 

jordanb

Cyburbian
Messages
3,232
Points
25
Chet, do you have a specific problem with my methodology? Do you disagree that it establishes a rough upper-bound for the probability that someone living in Chicago but not partaking in risky behavior has of getting murdered?

I ran it by my boss (who has a couple of masters, one of which is in statistics). He said that it sounded all right for a 'back of the napkin' calculation except that the murder rate was constant over the simulated lifetime, and the aforementioned assumption that murders were random, which seemed a bit dubious but wouldn't be fixable without a lot of work. I can check it with him again when he gets back from DC on Monday if you wish.
 

Chet

Cyburbian Emeritus
Messages
10,624
Points
34
jordanb said:
Chet, do you have a specific problem with my methodology?
Yes.

jordanb said:
Do you disagree that it establishes a rough upper-bound for the probability that someone living in Chicago but not partaking in risky behavior has of getting murdered?/B]
Yes.

Originally posted by jordanb I ran it by my boss (who has a couple of masters, one of which is in statistics). He said that it sounded all right for a 'back of the napkin' calculation except that the murder rate was constant over the simulated lifetime, and the aforementioned assumption that murders were random, which seemed a bit dubious but wouldn't be fixable without a lot of work. I can check it with him again when he gets back from DC on Monday if you wish. [/B]
So your boss admits the falacies of the 'back of the napkin' statistical assumptions and the... yadda yadda... *yawn* this is boring.
 

jordanb

Cyburbian
Messages
3,232
Points
25
Oh that's very helpful ... and mature.

The point was that he agreed that it gave a resonable number. At any rate, even if the actual probability is double my number, that's still only a 3.2% chance in a lifetime. My point was that murder should not be something people should be worried about, even living in a "high crime" city, it's just very likely if you're not participating in risky activities. I wanted to show that people shouldn't worry so much about the crime. I think that that calculation does that.
 

Chet

Cyburbian Emeritus
Messages
10,624
Points
34
jordanb said:
Oh that's very helpful ... and mature.
Well if I'm given a comforting set of assumptions I might be so inclined as well. But... HELLO! REALITY! Get the heck out of collegiate social thoery and get your butt into reality!

And on that note, Good Lord, get a freaking backbone! Skeleton our resident 18 year old Chilean cyburbanite will go toe-to-toe with our best masterdebater (pun intended) EG, and he wont back down. For gods sake, you rely on the word of a prof? Pathetic. Good luck getting a job outside of academia (or linux land). I hear there's a fun get together for you types (UFO CHicago Night At George's!).
 

PlannerGirl

Cyburbian Plus
Messages
6,377
Points
29
On talk radio this AM the news was all about how DC crime has gone way up (violent crime) rapes and murders but non violent crime is down.

ill see if i can find the written report

PG
 

Jeff

Cyburbian
Messages
4,161
Points
27
If we outlawed all guns, and legalized all drugs, we solve alot of these crime problems.
 

Jessie-J

Cyburbian
Messages
386
Points
12
long shot:
It takes a certain personality to commit a serious crime. So, what if, those places that have high crime rates (stereotypically and statistically) attract psychos? There wouldn't be crime if the personality to do it wasn't there right? So there must be something about [Detroit/New Orleans] that draws those type of people?

Or:
Crime isn't on the rise, but the media depicions of crime are. I mean, watch TV on any given night, how many shows are about "Crime and Punishment", "Law and Order", "Cops"?? Then there's the news to boot! I swear, every night on the news in St. Louis there is a body found or a murder of some kind being investigated. I'm personally tired of hearing about it.

The Culture of Fear is a really good book on this matter. Offers interesting insight.
 
Messages
5,353
Points
31
jordanb said:
Oh that's very helpful ... and mature.

The point was that he agreed that it gave a resonable number. At any rate, even if the actual probability is double my number, that's still only a 3.2% chance in a lifetime. My point was that murder should not be something people should be worried about, even living in a "high crime" city, it's just very likely if you're not participating in risky activities. I wanted to show that people shouldn't worry so much about the crime. I think that that calculation does that.
This just proves to me that statistics can be very subjective - they are manipulated to indicate what you people to know.
 

jordanb

Cyburbian
Messages
3,232
Points
25
Crime was actually declining during much of the 90s (when those shows got popular). I remember reading an article about a survey asking people if crime was on the rise or decline. I read it a few years ago, so I can't remember the details, but the crux was that the majority of people believed that crime was on the rise. When told that crime was actually in a significant decline, and asked if they felt safer, most responded "no."

The last answer was actually a reasonable one, even if the murder rate halved in Chicago it'd only change by a few hundredths of a percent of the population, so a significant drop in the murder rate would affect my chance of getting murdered very slightly. Crime rates just aren't high enough in this country to be a serious danger to the average person.

As far as ending the drug war, yeah, that would be a good thing to do. Probably the most effective thing to do if you're serious about curbing crime. I don't really see how outlawing guns would help though, seems to me it'd just fuel a new black market.
 

nerudite

Cyburbian
Messages
6,544
Points
30
Tranplanner said:
I think this is the direction Canada is moving in...
I think they need to start working on machetes up here. It seems like there are more limbs being lopped off than people being shot.
 

Jeff

Cyburbian
Messages
4,161
Points
27
jordanb said:
I don't really see how outlawing guns would help though, seems to me it'd just fuel a new black market.

But think about the children! THE CHILDREN!

If we stop innundating the poor inner cities with guns we wouldn't have so much crime? If we didn't have guns, there wouldn't be any way for people to kill each other or anything for 50 Cent to rap about.
 

Tranplanner

maudit anglais
Messages
7,903
Points
35
nerudite said:
I think they need to start working on machetes up here. It seems like there are more limbs being lopped off than people being shot.
I'm only aware of this case lately, gruesome enough as it is.

This thread got me thinking about crime in Toronto, and ya know - I don't think we've had a murder here for a few weeks now. Usually average just over one per week, and most are either domestic disputes or gang-related.
 

Seabishop

Cyburbian
Messages
3,838
Points
25
Assuming your risk of getting murdered is 2%, you also need to factor other crimes into quality of life. I'm sure your chances of getting assaulted, shot at (and surviving), mugged, raped, burglarized, having your car stolen, or having your property damaged, all combine to some pretty high statistics. Whatever that number is it only applies to one member of a household. Each member of your family has the same risk (in theory).

I do agree that people are a little crime crazed. But many of the same people who's goal in life is to be far away from any crime LOVE crime. They love gangster movies, CSI Miami, and Katie Couric victim interviews, and the kids they want to protect listen to gangsta rap. I'm more nervous about getting in a fatal car accident then getting murdered. Its amazing how we've all learned to accept the risk associated with driving for greater mobility.
 

el Guapo

Capitalist
Messages
5,993
Points
30
Mike D. said:
But think about the children! THE CHILDREN!

If we stop innundating the poor inner cities with guns we wouldn't have so much crime? If we didn't have guns, there wouldn't be any way for people to kill each other or anything for 50 Cent to rap about.
Great Idea, if we didn't have guns Ashcroft would just decide which citizen's disappeared. And that would be better for everyone. We can trust our government. They have always been so truthful.
 

nerudite

Cyburbian
Messages
6,544
Points
30
Tranplanner said:
I'm only aware of this case lately, gruesome enough as it is.
We've had a number of machete incidents in the last year. The Toronto one made national news though. Just on Sunday there was a machete fight in front of the Sidetrack in downtown Edmonton. Last summer some guy got his arm lopped off while he was riding his motorcycle because some dufus on the sidewalk decided he wanted to see if he can take off someone's limbs randomly. There have been about half a dozen incidents I can think of in the past year... it freaks me out.
 

Chet

Cyburbian Emeritus
Messages
10,624
Points
34
question

In terms of crimes per 1,000 people, arent you less likely to die froma violent crime in the burbs, but more likely to die in an auto related accident? I thought I read that somewhere that overall probability of death by crime + accident combined is higher in suburban areas than urban areas.
 

pete-rock

Cyburbian
Messages
1,551
Points
24
Re: question

Chet said:
In terms of crimes per 1,000 people, arent you less likely to die froma violent crime in the burbs, but more likely to die in an auto related accident? I thought I read that somewhere that overall probability of death by crime + accident combined is higher in suburban areas than urban areas.
It seems that a Planning Magazine article from a couple of years ago mentioned a study that said 1) the murder rate decreases according to distance from metro area center, and 2) the vehicle accident death rate increases according to distance from metro area center. The point of the article was that vehicle accident death rates in far-out suburban areas were comparable to, if not higher than, murder rates in inner city neighborhoods.

If you want to know when the article was published or who wrote it, I'd have to go through a stack of mags in the basement.
 

Chet

Cyburbian Emeritus
Messages
10,624
Points
34
Re: Re: question

pete-rock said:
If you want to know when the article was published or who wrote it, I'd have to go through a stack of mags in the basement.
Nah, not necessary. Just having someone else remember seeing that is good enough for me. I mean, it was in print so it must be true, right? :)
 

jresta

Cyburbian
Messages
1,474
Points
23
Planderella said:
This just proves to me that statistics can be very subjective - they are manipulated to indicate what you people to know.
That kid said absolutely nothing but that he disagreed. He didn't even come close to making a point.

I think the point jordanb was trying to make is that murders aren't at all random with most being either domestic or gang/drug related. Even assuming murders were completely random you still have a ridiculously small chance of being the victim of one.
 

Habanero

Cyburbian
Messages
3,241
Points
27
jresta said:
That kid said absolutely nothing but that he disagreed. He didn't even come close to making a point.

I think the point jordanb was trying to make is that murders aren't at all random with most being either domestic or gang/drug related. Even assuming murders were completely random you still have a ridiculously small chance of being the victim of one.
Shouldn't iq level have something to do with your chances as well?
 

pete-rock

Cyburbian
Messages
1,551
Points
24
Mike D. said:
But think about the children! THE CHILDREN!

If we stop innundating the poor inner cities with guns we wouldn't have so much crime? If we didn't have guns, there wouldn't be any way for people to kill each other or anything for 50 Cent to rap about.
Did anyone see "Bowling for Columbine" by Michael Moore? Before the movie, I probably would've been slightly in favor of some gun restrictions as a tool to reduce crime. Afterwards, I see it doesn't matter. The US is a semi-violent society (moreso than western Europe; much less so than present-day Rwanda or Congo or Iraq), and eliminating guns wouldn't change a thing. 50 Cent would rap about cuttin' someone.

Only some great "social enlightenment" is gonna reduce violent crime in this country. And who believes that will happen? I now just believe that we are who we are, and I just need to get used to it.
 

Habanero

Cyburbian
Messages
3,241
Points
27
Mike D. said:
If we didn't have guns, there wouldn't be any way for people to kill each other or anything for 50 Cent to rap about.
Hey, he raps about being in the club, not into making love, drinking bacardi, and come give him a hug!
 

H

Cyburbian
Messages
2,850
Points
24
pete-rock said:
...and eliminating guns wouldn't change a thing. 50 Cent would rap about cuttin' someone...
I was at a beach in the keys last weekend, swimming and drinking beers, as you do, and there was a family reunion type group having a pick-nick off their boats (lots of small children). The group was playing music (mostly beachey stuff) and then it switched to 50 Cent. I enjoyed it at the time (I like the songs), but later thought about if it was wrong for parents and children (small children) to listen to music about this (drugs, sex, violence) together making it socially okay to the children.

Don’t get me wrong, I normally consider myself very liberal socially, but I think a moral line was crossed. Even as a kid I would listen to “controversial” music, but not with my dad or grampa, that would of been weird.

What is your alls take on this?


PS. Shortly after (within 5 minute) the cops came and told them to turn it down/off. Even though I saw wrong, I definitely was NOT on the cops side of that. The family got in a big fight with the ‘Condo Commandos’ on the beach and even ended up leaving the “public” water/area by the beach.

What is your alls take on that?


Mod. Maybe this should be a new thread?
 
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