Predict the DOW - December 31, 2003

[Super Amputee Cat]

The DOW closed at 8341 at the end of 2002, that's down from 10,021 at the end of 2001. Keeping in mind the tumultuous ride the stock market has underwent in the past year, it is time to predict what the value of the DOW will be at year's end 2003.

The DOW has fluctuated almost 3500 points since January 1, reaching a high of almost 10700 in March and bottoming out at 7200 in early October. Since that time, it has slowly gained ground and now sits at just of 8300 (although it had almost reached 9000 early in December). However, in this jittery economy the DOW’s slow gain in value over the past three months could be erased in a heartbeat.

With that in mind, what do you think the market will close at on 12/31/2003? Will it continue to slowly regain value perhaps reaching 10000 by years end? Or will another terrorist attack or corporate scandal wipe all this out, dropping it back to levels unseen this past decade? Or perhaps just wallow in the 7000-8000s like it has been doing for a couple of months now.

Please predict what you think the DOW will be on day of close 12/31/2003. First of all, vote in the poll which is broken into brackets of 250, then respond by putting an exact round figure.

Feel free to comment on how you came up with your prediction. It will be fun to see who won on January 1, 2004!

 

[Super Amputee Cat]

My Prediction: 9100

 

[el Guapo]

10574 or my name ain’t Nathan Arizona!

 

[Chet]

9200. Of course, I'm still learning and reading the Hillary Clinton Method of futures investments....

 

[giff57]

ONE DOLLAR BOB!

Oh, wait wrong thing. I think it will get back over 10,000. I'll go with 10, 499

 

[Tranplanner]

I think there'll be a modest comeback this year.

 

[SkeLeton]

I'll go for 8000, it isn't too high or too low, plus with the upcomming war to the axis of evil... who knows.
If the war is short it could rise above my level, but if it goes on longer.... it will be around 8000.
I'd wish that the conflict ended without a war... but seeing the family record... Gulf war, take 2 , then probably we'll have Cold war, take 2.

the bad thing is that here, in my country gas will go up a lot, heck, it's quite expensive now... specially because of Venezuela's internal problems.

 

[Cardinal]

Except for the airlines and retail stocks that are already worthless, I think we have nearly reached the end of the big bankruptcies and scandals. Provided that there are no major disruptions in oil supplies, wars, or terrorist attacks, we can expect less fluctuation and very slow growth. There will be no great performers, though, such as the tech stocks in the 1990's. Even real estate will level off.

 

[Dan]

Market correction will continue, as more investors consider the long term and choose stocks known for producing regular dividends. 8230.

My prediction of hurtin' companies on January 1, 2004

Sun Microsystems
HP/Compaq
American Airlines

Kmart will turn off their blue light for the last time on December 24, 2003. Wal-Mart will actually DROP, and Target will continue a slow upward rise.

 

[Cardinal]

Market correction will continue, as more investors consider the long term and choose stocks known for producing regular dividends. 8230.

My prediction of hurtin' companies on January 1, 2004

Sun Microsystems
HP/Compaq
American Airlines

Kmart will turn off their blue light for the last time on December 24, 2003. Wal-Mart will actually DROP, and Target will continue a slow upward rise.

If you want to talk retail, there are some big changes coming. I personally think Kmart can pull through, but only by cutting more stores, improving its merchandise and creating a new brand image. It will have to focus on its strong areas in rural and urban locations. Sears is going to have a rough time of it, and will also need to re-merchandise. The acquisition of Lands' End is a good start for them, but perhaps not for Lands' End. Speaking of acquisitions, some more companies will be sold this year, as larger retailers look to buy their way into complementary product niches or to acquire companies with solid Internet/catalog operations. Some of the targets may be Shopko, L.L. Bean and The Gap. Potential buyers may include Target, Sears, and perhaps Kohl's.

I expect that the auto makers are in for a rougher year.

 

[Jeff]

So does anyone here actually know anything about the stock market??

Reason being, I'm eligible for my 401k in 2 months and I'm clueless to the stock market, investing, etc....

 

[Tranplanner]

Mike D - don't worry about it. Just send me all your money, and I'll take care of it for you.

 

[el Guapo]

So does anyone here actually know anything about the stock market??

Reason being, I'm eligible for my 401k in 2 months and I'm clueless to the stock market, investing, etc....

Janus Balanced & Janus SP Index = safe growth until the 2nd Coming. Then your soul will be owned by SATAN and all the investments in the world won't matter! (insert maniacal laughter)

 

[Chet]

So does anyone here actually know anything about the stock market??

Reason being, I'm eligible for my 401k in 2 months and I'm clueless to the stock market, investing, etc....

I'm in an investment club that buys individual stocks. We make a point to assign research projects to members, then they have to report on it to the group. The fund is doing "okay" despite investing heavily in tech stocks in the beginning.

There's more to 401k's than the stock market. The real key is diversify the holdings - and hopefully your employer doesn't match with their stock a-la Enron. Go to fidelity.com (or the firm that will manage your fund) and review the 401k investment strategies.

 

[Jeff]

OK last time I ask financial advice from this bunch....