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RTDNTOTO 🐻 Random Thoughts Deserving No Thread of Their Own 16 (2021)

Annual Random Thoughts Deserving No Thread Of Their Own threads
JNA

JNA

Cyburbian Plus
Messages
26,420
Points
68
Otter Squee Factor

152773169_706968669980693_1148757261222666256_n.jpg
 
Doohickie

Doohickie

Cyburbian
Messages
3,576
Points
46
Planit said:
It will be in the (near) future, but as for now it's something she needs to know IMHO & because I drive a stick.
Click to expand...
I have a stick, my wife doesn't know how to drive it. We've had that setup for many years. It's very, very rarely an impediment to transportation.
 
Doohickie

Doohickie

Cyburbian
Messages
3,576
Points
46
MD Planner said:
Hey all you Texas Cyburbians. So what can you tell us about the fake snow down there that was manufactured by the government? :r: :oops: :grimace:
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Even if the govt could somehow make that much snow, there's no denying the temperature went down to zero. Not sure how the think the govt did that.
 
Planit

Planit

Cyburbian
Messages
13,921
Points
55
WSU MUP Student

WSU MUP Student

Cyburbian
Messages
10,982
Points
51
MD Planner said:
Nah.

I picture Dandy as much more of a Cabriolet girl:

View attachment 50759
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Around '00 or '01, one of my older sisters bought an older Rabbit convertible of about that age to have fun with on the weekends. She was lucky that she was living and working in a downtown area and didn't have far to drive because it was constantly dying on her. I think she paid about $1,000 for the car (sign #1 it probably wasn't going to be to reliable) and ended up having to sell it to a scrap yard less than a year later.
 
Maister

Maister

Chairman of the bored
Staff member
Moderator
Messages
29,467
Points
73
1614176858397.png

I was wondering if this duckling is considered cute? It's a shame we don't have any authorities here to make such a determination.
 
Planit

Planit

Cyburbian
Messages
13,921
Points
55
We have homebuilders here, who know there is a demand, but won't build because of lumber prices.

I know its sounds strange, but that came directly from the homebuilders association meeting we attended a few weeks back.
 
mendelman

mendelman

Unfrozen Caveman Planner
Staff member
Moderator
Messages
15,004
Points
59
Planit said:
We have homebuilders here, who know there is a demand, but won't build because of lumber prices.

I know its sounds strange, but that came directly from the homebuilders association meeting we attended a few weeks back.
Click to expand...
Doesn't surprise me.

Material prices may be high(er), but are the prices objectively killing their proformas? I'm suspect...at best. ;)
 
D

dw914er

Cyburbian
Messages
1,529
Points
21
mendelman said:
Doesn't surprise me.

Material prices may be high(er), but are the prices objectively killing their proformas? I'm suspect...at best. ;)
Click to expand...

Some have said here that materials have gone up 30%, which basically ate away the profit margin they had anticipated. I believe it, but that said, some developers will complain about the costs hoping that cities will drop their fees.
 
The Terminator

The Terminator

Cyburbian
Messages
1,692
Points
23
I had a dream I was the Secretary of Housing and Urban Development. But I got fired by Kamala for kicking off a massive wave of federal public housing construction and redevelopment as well as housing single moms and welfare recipients at HUD HQ in DC as a political statement. I also donated 70% of my salary to workers organizations, which led to Congress (including AOC) delcaring the DSA and several mutial aid groups as "Terrorist Organizations".

On my final day in office, Kamala and Pete Buttigieg decided to give a bunch of Russian dignitaries an unannounced tour of HUD, and walked in on me rolling a joint, to which I yelled at Pete "Get the f*** outta here, Buttgauge, Im schmokin!"
 
mendelman

mendelman

Unfrozen Caveman Planner
Staff member
Moderator
Messages
15,004
Points
59
The Terminator said:
I had a dream I was the Secretary of Housing and Urban Development. But I got fired by Kamala for kicking off a massive wave of federal public housing construction and redevelopment as well as housing single moms and welfare recipients at HUD HQ in DC as a political statement. I also donated 70% of my salary to workers organizations, which led to Congress (including AOC) delcaring the DSA and several mutial aid groups as "Terrorist Organizations".

On my final day in office, Kamala and Pete Buttigieg decided to give a bunch of Russian dignitaries an unannounced tour of HUD, and walked in on me rolling a joint, to which I yelled at Pete "Get the f*** outta here, Buttgauge, Im schmokin!"
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That triple cheese and jalapeno large pizza was probably not the best choice just before bed.

But you do you. :p
 
M

MD Planner

Cyburbian
Messages
2,835
Points
45
dw914er said:
Some have said here that materials have gone up 30%, which basically ate away the profit margin they had anticipated. I believe it, but that said, some developers will complain about the costs hoping that cities will drop their fees.
Click to expand...

I follow this stuff pretty closely and current lumber prices are adding about 24K to the average house. That's a lot.
 
WSU MUP Student

WSU MUP Student

Cyburbian
Messages
10,982
Points
51
mendelman said:
Doesn't surprise me.

Material prices may be high(er), but are the prices objectively killing their proformas? I'm suspect...at best. ;)
Click to expand...

The price increases I've seen would definitely affect material prices enough to drastically cut into the profit lines on the proforma, especially for smaller local builders who are also dealing with increased labor costs due to lower supplies of skilled-labor. I imagine larger builders like Pulte who have long-term contracts for materials that insulate them from these spikes and also have their own mortgage brokerage arms are probably less affected. So are very small builders at the extreme opposite end of the spectrum who are building one-off houses for a specific homebuyer who probably has deeper pockets and is more involved in the design process. But those builders who work primarily in a specific metro and might build a few dozen spec home shit-boxes (a term I believe I borrowed from Kurt Vonnegut) at a time would definitely be hesitant to start new projects construction now.

The real question is how long will these lumber prices remain so high. Will this be sustained throughout the year and into 2022 or will prices come down significantly at some point in the spring or early summer?

Edit:
Maybe if the prices do remain high for a while, that will encourage more redevelopment and remodeling of the existing housing stock and slow down new green-field development in some of those metro areas where new development is draining the established urban core and inner ring suburbs? That's probably just wishful thinking on my part though.
 
M

MD Planner

Cyburbian
Messages
2,835
Points
45
Rehab and remodeling is all well and good but there is real demand for new housing. Pulte and the other big guys here are also being impacted by the prices. There is also a shortage of things from time to time. About a month ago it was windows. Nobody could get finals done because the house was virtually complete but didn't have windows. Appliances is another thing that has a long lead time. Hell, we've got a new traffic signal going in and the lead time on the mast arms is something like 9 months. It's insane.
 
michaelskis

michaelskis

Cyburbian
Messages
20,589
Points
54
WSU MUP Student said:
The price increases I've seen would definitely affect material prices enough to drastically cut into the profit lines on the proforma, especially for smaller local builders who are also dealing with increased labor costs due to lower supplies of skilled-labor. I imagine larger builders like Pulte who have long-term contracts for materials that insulate them from these spikes and also have their own mortgage brokerage arms are probably less affected. So are very small builders at the extreme opposite end of the spectrum who are building one-off houses for a specific homebuyer who probably has deeper pockets and is more involved in the design process. But those builders who work primarily in a specific metro and might build a few dozen spec home shit-boxes (a term I believe I borrowed from Kurt Vonnegut) at a time would definitely be hesitant to start new projects construction now.

The real question is how long will these lumber prices remain so high. Will this be sustained throughout the year and into 2022 or will prices come down significantly at some point in the spring or early summer?

Edit:
Maybe if the prices do remain high for a while, that will encourage more redevelopment and remodeling of the existing housing stock and slow down new green-field development in some of those metro areas where new development is draining the established urban core and inner ring suburbs? That's probably just wishful thinking on my part though.
Click to expand...

I think you are spot on. We have seen a slow down from a few of the regional guys, but the national builders are still going strong.

As for infill development, I hope that becomes reality.
 
DVD

DVD

Cyburbian
Messages
15,420
Points
53
We've jumped to more of a multi-family market right now. There are still the big home builders out on the edge, but the closer to downtown the more everyone is trying to turn anything into a crappy apartment complex or some kind of ADU rental thing.
 
kjel

kjel

Super Moderator
Staff member
Moderator
Messages
12,576
Points
43
Planit said:
We have homebuilders here, who know there is a demand, but won't build because of lumber prices.

I know its sounds strange, but that came directly from the homebuilders association meeting we attended a few weeks back.
Click to expand...

I have two projects under construction in my grant program. Material cost and labor shortages are twin issues right now. Contractors are also not guaranteeing pricing for more than 30 days due to pricing and availability. I had one project that got underway just as the whole tariff war started and it ended up being cheaper to use metal studs in that project.

It's insane.
 
Salmissra

Salmissra

Cyburbian
Messages
6,191
Points
34
We've been doing virtual meetings for almost a year. Today I saw the best "Best Practices for Virtual Meetings" slide that tells you the normal housekeeping items for meetings:

-muting your microphone when not speaking
-stating name & entity when asking/answering questions
-using the chat box
-reminder that chat box is visible to all attendees
-other housekeeping items as appropriate to the meeting.

I wish I had created such a slide for the beginning of my meetings!

On that note - it should not over 30 minutes to take roll/attendance at a virtual meeting.
 
Dan

Dan

Dear Leader
Staff member
Moderator
Messages
19,147
Points
70
After seeing @Maister's post about council housing in the UK, I Googled round, and found what is perhaps the Most British YouTube Video Ever.



Or maybe it's this.



Or this.



Or this.

 
M

MD Planner

Cyburbian
Messages
2,835
Points
45
Got to work really early, excited to get some things done. And then our fire chief calls and tells me that the lady who we contract with to clean our city buildings was killed earlier this morning in a car accident. I didn't know her well other than to exchange pleasantries and ask about family etc. but I enjoyed our banter and she was always so gracious. Thursdays and Sundays were her days in our building. She should be vacuuming my office right now instead of having her body cut out of her car. Damn. :(
 
Planit

Planit

Cyburbian
Messages
13,921
Points
55
kjel said:
cheaper to use metal studs in that project.

It's insane.
Click to expand...

We were told that too by a larger MF developer. On one project, this developer told a supplier he'd give them a $3m deposit if they could hold prices for 90 days. The deposit was declined.
 
Shellac And Vinyl VelocitY

Shellac And Vinyl VelocitY

Cyburbian
Messages
2,934
Points
23
Maister said:
Looking for yet more similarities...by any chance did you marry an enneagram type 6?
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mendelman said:
Pretty much, but with much less tendency toward overreaction and rebellion.

Probably 6w5 (Defender)
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Type 6 is a much more complicated personality type than I'd originally thought!
...they have the most trouble contacting their own inner guidance. As a result, they do not have confidence in their own minds and judgments.

This does not mean that they do not think. On the contrary, they think—and worry—a lot! They also tend to fear making important decisions, although at the same time, they resist having anyone else make decisions for them. They want to avoid being controlled, but are also afraid of taking responsibility in a way that might put them “in the line of fire.” . . .
Click to expand...
 
Maister

Maister

Chairman of the bored
Staff member
Moderator
Messages
29,467
Points
73
WSU MUP Student said:
Definitely not ideal but I think I'd rather have that than the knee-height one!
Click to expand...
Agreed. Having a food item fall into the sink on the very rare occasion would be frustrating, but having to bend/crouch every. single. time. one uses the microwave would result in a much higher Gross Frustration Aggregate Score (GFAS)
 
Shellac And Vinyl VelocitY

Shellac And Vinyl VelocitY

Cyburbian
Messages
2,934
Points
23
Planit said:
For those discussing microwave placement a few days ago, don't do this either.
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WSU MUP Student said:
Definitely not ideal but I think I'd rather have that than the knee-height one!
Click to expand...
Maister said:
Agreed. Having a food item fall into the sink on the very rare occasion would be frustrating, but having to bend/crouch every. single. time. one uses the microwave would result in a much higher Gross Frustration Aggregate Score (GFAS)
Click to expand...

The GFAS depends on one's height and body flexibility.
 
K

kms

Cyburbian
Messages
6,752
Points
43
luckless pedestrian said:
When I cook, I am the type that gets all the ingredients measured and organized in little bowls - I cook by recipes and I am not a fast chopper so I need to have everything done that is going to go into the recipe. So it's an organized mess but I do put ingredients back and stuff in the dishwasher as I go
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That's known as "mise en place". How very French of you.

I prepare things that way, too.

I don’t have a dishwasher, so big cooking days can be pretty messy. I can't wash dishes in stages when I'm working at the stove.
 
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